Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-07 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices opened at $2.83, influenced by a bearish storage report showing levels 7.7% above the five-year average. However, demand is weak seasonally, with cooling needs yet to begin and heating needs already diminished. Notably, production has dropped to a 12-week low, as rational producers curtail output below $3. A smaller-than-expected storage build this week could spark bullish momentum, especially if EIA revisions adjust future forecasts downward. Keep an eye on the upcoming EIA data for potential market shifts!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.78
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.72
MA(20): $2.68
Current Price is 2.78, 9 day MA 2.72, 20 day MA 2.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0287
Signal: -0.063
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 50.83
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 50.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,688
Avg (20d): 105,432
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 73.25
%D: 70.42
Stochastic %K: 73.25, %D: 70.42. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.25
+DI: 23.7
-DI: 18.65
ADX: 11.25 (+DI: 23.7, -DI: 18.65). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -26.75
Williams %R: -26.75 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.85
Middle: 2.68
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.85, Middle: 2.68, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
72.0 HDD
+16.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
43.0 HDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
23.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/29 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/30 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/09 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/11 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/08 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/13 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.21
Daily:
0.19 (0.2%)
Weekly:
0.0 (0.0%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
0.04 (0.83%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.32%)
SP500
7337.11
Daily:
-28.01 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
106.99 (1.48%)
VIX
17.08
Daily:
-0.31 (-1.78%)
Weekly:
0.09 (0.53%)
GOLD
4734.6
Daily:
52.7 (1.13%)
Weekly:
104.7 (2.26%)
COPPER
6.18
Daily:
0.04 (0.71%)
Weekly:
0.25 (4.18%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,578,600
Change: +1,937
Managed Money
-97,245
Change: +3,329
-6.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,578
Change: -2,835
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
177,613
Change: +3,554
11.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-69,028
Change: -1,287
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,017,038
Change: +32,291
Managed Money
80,331
Change: -19,556
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
320,120
Change: +5,815
15.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-539,774
Change: +1,242
-26.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.303 EUR/MWh (-0.794). JKM prices decreased to 16.850 USD/MMBtu (-0.185). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.547 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.303
-0.794Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-07
JKM Prices
16.850
-0.185Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-07
JKM-TTF Spread
1.547
10.11%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
15.9
14.4
12.9
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.303 |
| JUL 26 | 15.157 |
| AUG 26 | 15.176 |
| SEP 26 | 15.206 |
| OCT 26 | 15.153 |
| NOV 26 | 15.004 |
| DEC 26 | 15.002 |
| JAN 27 | 14.949 |
| FEB 27 | 14.817 |
| MAR 27 | 14.318 |
| APR 27 | 12.574 |
| MAY 27 | 11.959 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.850 |
| JUL 26 | 16.890 |
| AUG 26 | 16.785 |
| SEP 26 | 16.520 |
| OCT 26 | 16.195 |
| NOV 26 | 16.035 |
| DEC 26 | 16.030 |
| JAN 27 | 15.725 |
| FEB 27 | 15.200 |
| MAR 27 | 13.770 |
| APR 27 | 12.370 |
| MAY 27 | 12.305 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-07 to 2026-05-06
Latest LNG Flow
17.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.30
(-1.7%)
30-Day Average
18.09
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
15
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.05
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
155
Last Updated:
2026-05-07 23:48:14
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.78
Closest Support:
$2.72
2.16% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
3.24% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.77
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-07 23:48:14
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $2.76 | $2.62 | $2.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-11 | $2.78 | $2.64 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-12 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-05-08), reaching $2.76.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-08 and 2026-05-12.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is identified at 2.72, while resistance is at 2.87. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.22%, suggesting potential short-term volatility. Traders should consider monitoring these levels closely for breakout opportunities or risk management.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance stands at 1.68 BCFD, with a slight increase of +3.60, indicating stable production levels. However, the moderately bearish technical outlook suggests producers should be cautious in their production planning. Given the neutral market sentiment, it may be prudent to explore hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, especially in light of fluctuating demand and output dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With moderate heating demand expected due to the current weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to lower prices, but caution is warranted as the risk of supply reliability persists, especially with the mixed demand outlook and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains. Procurement strategies should be evaluated to capitalize on any price dips while ensuring supply security.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish sentiment, driven by a fundamental balance of 1.68 BCFD and a neutral overall market sentiment. Key driving factors include the heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest, contrasted with cooling demand in the South and West. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in these dynamics, particularly as geopolitical tensions and output fluctuations could influence future market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.