Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-08 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas opened at $2.83, yet bears forecast a decline due to storage levels 7.7% above the five-year average. However, this is during a historically weak demand season. Production has dropped to a 12-week low, with curtailment expected as prices linger below $3. The EIA's upcoming storage report may reveal a smaller-than-expected build, potentially sending prices higher. Watch for impacts from seasonal maintenance on LNG exports and any shifts in demand dynamics as summer approaches.
Key Developments & Statistics:
- Current Henry Hub price: $2.83
- Storage levels: 2,142 Bcf (7.7% above five-year average)
- Production: 107.6 Bcf/day
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.75
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.74
MA(20): $2.68
Current Price is 2.75, 9 day MA 2.74, 20 day MA 2.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0253
Signal: -0.0555
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.26
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.26 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 117,782
Avg (20d): 111,999
Ratio: 1.05
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 66.75
%D: 66.67
Stochastic %K: 66.75, %D: 66.67. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.9
+DI: 24.2
-DI: 16.79
ADX: 11.9 (+DI: 24.2, -DI: 16.79). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -33.25
Williams %R: -33.25 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.86
Middle: 2.68
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.86, Middle: 2.68, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
72.0 HDD
+18.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
41.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
22.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/30 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/09 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/13 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/30 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.84
Daily:
-0.41 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
-0.63 (-0.64%)
US_10Y
4.36
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.84%)
SP500
7398.93
Daily:
61.82 (0.84%)
Weekly:
198.18 (2.75%)
VIX
17.19
Daily:
0.11 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-1.1 (-6.01%)
GOLD
4723.7
Daily:
23.9 (0.51%)
Weekly:
204.2 (4.52%)
COPPER
6.28
Daily:
0.15 (2.53%)
Weekly:
0.49 (8.41%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.236 EUR/MWh (-0.067). JKM prices decreased to 16.840 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.604 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.236
-0.067Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-08
JKM Prices
16.840
-0.010Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-08
JKM-TTF Spread
1.604
10.53%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-08
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.3
15.9
14.4
12.9
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.236 |
| JUL 26 | 15.069 |
| AUG 26 | 15.078 |
| SEP 26 | 15.102 |
| OCT 26 | 15.048 |
| NOV 26 | 14.923 |
| DEC 26 | 14.927 |
| JAN 27 | 14.875 |
| FEB 27 | 14.755 |
| MAR 27 | 14.252 |
| APR 27 | 12.544 |
| MAY 27 | 11.946 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.840 |
| JUL 26 | 16.795 |
| AUG 26 | 16.650 |
| SEP 26 | 16.390 |
| OCT 26 | 16.085 |
| NOV 26 | 15.950 |
| DEC 26 | 15.950 |
| JAN 27 | 15.675 |
| FEB 27 | 15.110 |
| MAR 27 | 13.660 |
| APR 27 | 12.390 |
| MAY 27 | 12.315 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
18.05
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
15
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
143
Last Updated:
2026-05-08 23:47:23
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.75
Closest Support:
$2.72
1.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
4.36% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.77
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-08 23:47:24
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $2.76 | $2.62 | $2.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-11 | $2.78 | $2.64 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-12 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-05-08), reaching $2.76.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-08 and 2026-05-12.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.72 and resistance at 2.87, which may guide short-term trading strategies. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.22%, suggesting potential volatility within the range of 2.62 to 2.9. Traders should remain cautious of potential risks associated with the overall bearish market sentiment and consider short-term opportunities that may arise from fluctuations around these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of 1.68 BCFD indicates a slight increase in supply, which could influence production planning. Producers should be aware of the bearish market sentiment reflected in the sentiment score of -0.433. This could impact pricing strategies and necessitate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with declining prices. Monitoring the weather outlook is essential, as low heating and cooling demands may affect consumption patterns and, consequently, production levels.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, given the bearish market sentiment and low demand forecasts. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand in residential and commercial sectors and low cooling demand in power generation, which could lead to supply reliability risks. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to safeguard against unexpected price movements.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment with significant implications for both short-term and long-term strategies. The fundamental balance reflects an increase in supply, while the technical indicators suggest caution. The analysis of news sentiment further underscores the prevailing market pessimism. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics, weather forecasts, and geopolitical factors to assess potential shifts in market outlook, particularly in light of the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.