Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-09 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas opened at $2.83, reflecting a slight uptick amid bearish sentiment fueled by storage levels 7.7% above the five-year average. However, production has dipped to a 12-week low of 107.6 Bcf/d as producers curtail output in response to low prices. The upcoming EIA storage report could be pivotal; anything below 65 Bcf could signal a bullish shift. As seasonal maintenance limits LNG exports, the market waits for demand to rise, keeping an eye on how storage and production dynamics unfold in the coming weeks.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Henry Hub opened at $2.83.
- Storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.76
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.74
MA(20): $2.68
Current Price is 2.76, 9 day MA 2.74, 20 day MA 2.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0248
Signal: -0.0554
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 166,306
Avg (20d): 114,425
Ratio: 1.45
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 68.5
%D: 67.25
Stochastic %K: 68.5, %D: 67.25. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.9
+DI: 24.2
-DI: 16.79
ADX: 11.9 (+DI: 24.2, -DI: 16.79). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -31.5
Williams %R: -31.5 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.86
Middle: 2.68
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.86, Middle: 2.68, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
70.0 HDD
+18.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
39.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
24.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/11 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/12 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.84
Daily:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
Weekly:
-0.63 (-0.64%)
US_10Y
4.36
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.84%)
SP500
7398.93
Daily:
61.82 (0.84%)
Weekly:
198.18 (2.75%)
VIX
17.19
Daily:
0.11 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-1.1 (-6.01%)
GOLD
4720.4
Daily:
20.6 (0.44%)
Weekly:
200.9 (4.45%)
COPPER
6.25
Daily:
0.12 (1.98%)
Weekly:
0.45 (7.83%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.376 EUR/MWh (+0.140). JKM prices increased to 16.870 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.494 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.376
+0.140Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-09
JKM Prices
16.870
+0.030Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-09
JKM-TTF Spread
1.494
9.72%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-09
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
15.9
14.5
13.0
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.376 |
| JUL 26 | 15.257 |
| AUG 26 | 15.259 |
| SEP 26 | 15.280 |
| OCT 26 | 15.232 |
| NOV 26 | 15.083 |
| DEC 26 | 15.095 |
| JAN 27 | 15.053 |
| FEB 27 | 14.942 |
| MAR 27 | 14.419 |
| APR 27 | 12.618 |
| MAY 27 | 12.018 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.870 |
| JUL 26 | 16.915 |
| AUG 26 | 16.785 |
| SEP 26 | 16.515 |
| OCT 26 | 16.210 |
| NOV 26 | 16.080 |
| DEC 26 | 16.120 |
| JAN 27 | 15.835 |
| FEB 27 | 15.300 |
| MAR 27 | 13.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.460 |
| MAY 27 | 12.400 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-08
Latest LNG Flow
17.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.99
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | N/A |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
105
Last Updated:
2026-05-09 23:47:34
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.76
Closest Support:
$2.72
1.45% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
3.99% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.76
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-09 23:47:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.37%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-11 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.89 |
| 2026-05-12 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-13 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.37% for the next trading day (2026-05-09), reaching $2.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-09 and 2026-05-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.72 and resistance at 2.87. The ML price forecast indicates a potential upward movement of 0.37%, with a projected range of 2.65 to 2.88. However, the overall market sentiment remains negative, which may lead to increased volatility. Short-term opportunities may arise near the support level, but caution is advised given the bearish outlook.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance sits at 1.68 BCFD with a slight increase, indicating a stable supply-demand scenario. However, the overall market sentiment is negative, particularly affecting crude oil with a sentiment score of -0.600. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with market volatility. The low heating demand in residential and commercial sectors may also impact natural gas demand, necessitating a review of operational strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating a dominance of cooling demand in the South and West, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices. The current fundamental balance suggests stability, but the negative market sentiment could lead to unexpected price movements. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential volatility and to evaluate hedging options to manage future costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical indicators and negative news sentiment. The fundamental balance remains stable, but the overall sentiment score of -0.200 indicates caution. Key drivers include cooling demand and a bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil. Analysts should monitor the support and resistance levels closely, as well as the impact of geopolitical developments on market dynamics, to identify potential shifts in outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.