Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-10 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas opened at $2.83, but bears are skeptical due to storage levels being 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf. However, this bearish sentiment overlooks that we're in the weakest demand period of the year. Production has dipped to 107.6 Bcfd as producers curtail output when prices fall below $3. The upcoming EIA storage report could be a game-changer; anything below 65 Bcf would signal bullish momentum. Keep an eye on the evolving demand landscape and potential price support around $2.76.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.81
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.77
MA(20): $2.69
Current Price is 2.81, 9 day MA 2.77, 20 day MA 2.69
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0167
Signal: -0.0477
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.99
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.99 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,252
Avg (20d): 106,987
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 81.75
%D: 73.92
Stochastic %K: 81.75, %D: 73.92. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.34
+DI: 23.07
-DI: 16.0
ADX: 12.34 (+DI: 23.07, -DI: 16.0). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.25
Williams %R: -18.25 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.88
Middle: 2.69
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.88, Middle: 2.69, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
67.0 HDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
33.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
26.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.09
Daily:
0.25 (0.26%)
Weekly:
-0.39 (-0.39%)
US_10Y
4.36
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.84%)
SP500
7398.93
Daily:
61.82 (0.84%)
Weekly:
198.18 (2.75%)
VIX
17.19
Daily:
0.11 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-1.1 (-6.01%)
GOLD
4693.8
Daily:
-26.6 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
138.0 (3.03%)
COPPER
6.34
Daily:
0.09 (1.38%)
Weekly:
0.39 (6.6%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.376 EUR/MWh (+0.140). JKM prices increased to 16.870 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.494 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.376
+0.140Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-10
JKM Prices
16.870
+0.030Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-10
JKM-TTF Spread
1.494
9.72%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-10
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
15.9
14.5
13.0
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.376 |
| JUL 26 | 15.257 |
| AUG 26 | 15.259 |
| SEP 26 | 15.280 |
| OCT 26 | 15.232 |
| NOV 26 | 15.083 |
| DEC 26 | 15.095 |
| JAN 27 | 15.053 |
| FEB 27 | 14.942 |
| MAR 27 | 14.419 |
| APR 27 | 12.618 |
| MAY 27 | 12.018 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.870 |
| JUL 26 | 16.915 |
| AUG 26 | 16.785 |
| SEP 26 | 16.515 |
| OCT 26 | 16.210 |
| NOV 26 | 16.080 |
| DEC 26 | 16.120 |
| JAN 27 | 15.835 |
| FEB 27 | 15.300 |
| MAR 27 | 13.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.460 |
| MAY 27 | 12.400 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-09
Latest LNG Flow
17.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.94
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
17
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | N/A |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
68
Last Updated:
2026-05-10 23:47:18
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.81
Closest Support:
$2.72
3.2% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
2.14% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.76
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-10 23:47:18
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.37%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-11 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.89 |
| 2026-05-12 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.88 |
| 2026-05-13 | $2.77 | $2.65 | $2.89 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.37% for the next trading day (2026-05-09), reaching $2.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-09 and 2026-05-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a bearish sentiment overall, with a technical interpretation scoring -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is set at 2.72, while resistance is at 2.87. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations within the predicted range of 2.65 to 2.88, and consider short-term opportunities or risks associated with the cooling demand trends across multiple regions, particularly in the South and West.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance currently stands at 1.68 BCFD, indicating a slight increase in supply. Producers should assess their production planning in light of the negative market sentiment and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the bearish outlook. The cooling demand forecast suggests that while heating demand remains low, there may be opportunities in power generation adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current forecast indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the short term. The fundamental balance suggests adequate supply, but the overall market sentiment may lead to price volatility. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations and the cooling demand patterns across various regions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently facing a bearish sentiment, with key drivers including a fundamental balance of 1.68 BCFD and a technical outlook indicating resistance at 2.87. The cooling demand forecast is a significant factor, particularly in the South and West, which may influence market dynamics. Analysts should monitor these trends closely for any potential shifts in sentiment or price direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.