Henry Hub settled at $2.925 on Monday, up roughly 3% on the session and closing at a one-week high as the market finally started listening to the production signal it had been ignoring all spring. Output across the Lower 48 has held at 109.6 Bcfd in May — below December's record 110.6 Bcfd — as producers including EQT continue curtailing rather than sell into sub-$3 spot prices, and the storage surplus has already narrowed to an estimated 6% above normal for the week ended May 7, down from 7% the prior week. The Waha Hub remains in negative territory for a record 66 consecutive days — a structural Permian pipeline constraint that continues to trap gas in the basin and suppress national averages — but that dynamic is increasingly priced in and no longer a drag on the forward curve. LNG feedgas flows softened to 17.2 Bcfd in May versus April's record 18.8 Bcfd, but that's maintenance-season noise, not a demand signal. At $2.925 the market is 7.5 cents from $3, the surplus is visibly eroding, and the producers are telling you exactly what they think fair value is — they're just waiting for the tape to catch up.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-11 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are on the rise, settling at $2.925, marking a 6-week high as the market finally acknowledges production signals being overlooked. Output remains below December's peak, with producers curtailing supply in response to low prices. Waha Hub's ongoing negative pricing contributes to a tighter national average. Warmer weather forecasts are also boosting demand, while LNG feedgas flows show seasonal dips, not fundamental weakness. With storage surpluses narrowing, the market might soon meet producers' fair value expectations around $3.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.92
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.78
MA(20): $2.7
Current Price is 2.92, 9 day MA 2.78, 20 day MA 2.7
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0078
Signal: -0.0459
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.73
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.73 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,761
Avg (20d): 104,727
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 96.91
%D: 78.97
Stochastic %K: 96.91, %D: 78.97. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 13.03
+DI: 26.78
-DI: 15.16
ADX: 13.03 (+DI: 26.78, -DI: 15.16). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.09
Williams %R: -3.09 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 2.9
Middle: 2.7
Lower: 2.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 2.9, Middle: 2.7, Lower: 2.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
61.0 HDD
+13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
30.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
27.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/14 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.14
Daily:
0.3 (0.31%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-0.34%)
US_10Y
4.41
Daily:
0.05 (1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
SP500
7412.84
Daily:
13.91 (0.19%)
Weekly:
153.62 (2.12%)
VIX
18.38
Daily:
1.19 (6.92%)
Weekly:
1.0 (5.75%)
GOLD
4735.1
Daily:
14.7 (0.31%)
Weekly:
179.3 (3.94%)
COPPER
6.49
Daily:
0.24 (3.81%)
Weekly:
0.54 (9.15%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.376 EUR/MWh (+0.140). JKM prices increased to 16.870 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.494 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.376
+0.140Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-11
JKM Prices
16.870
+0.030Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-11
JKM-TTF Spread
1.494
9.72%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-11
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
15.9
14.5
13.0
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.376 |
| JUL 26 | 15.257 |
| AUG 26 | 15.259 |
| SEP 26 | 15.280 |
| OCT 26 | 15.232 |
| NOV 26 | 15.083 |
| DEC 26 | 15.095 |
| JAN 27 | 15.053 |
| FEB 27 | 14.942 |
| MAR 27 | 14.419 |
| APR 27 | 12.618 |
| MAY 27 | 12.018 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.870 |
| JUL 26 | 16.915 |
| AUG 26 | 16.785 |
| SEP 26 | 16.515 |
| OCT 26 | 16.210 |
| NOV 26 | 16.080 |
| DEC 26 | 16.120 |
| JAN 27 | 15.835 |
| FEB 27 | 15.300 |
| MAR 27 | 13.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.460 |
| MAY 27 | 12.400 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-10
Latest LNG Flow
17.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
17.89
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
18
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | N/A |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2026-05-11 23:47:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.92
Closest Support:
$2.87
1.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.99
2.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
Support
0.5
$2.99
Resistance
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.91
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-11 23:47:44
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.47%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | $2.9 | $2.77 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-13 | $2.92 | $2.79 | $3.05 |
| 2026-05-14 | $2.9 | $2.77 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-15 | $2.91 | $2.78 | $3.04 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.47% for the next trading day (2026-05-12), reaching $2.90.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-12 and 2026-05-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.87, while the resistance is at 2.99. This indicates a potential for price movements within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.47%, indicating a possible short-term opportunity for traders to capitalize on volatility. Monitor the market closely for any shifts that could lead to breakout opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of 1.68 BCFD and a slight increase of +3.60, producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with this supply-demand dynamic. The overall market sentiment is positive, particularly for crude oil, which could influence hedging strategies favorably. However, maintaining flexibility in operations will be crucial, given the bearish technical indicators.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains positive, but technical indicators are bearish. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand with a cooling degree days (CDD) forecast of 11.9, suggesting stable supply conditions. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that hedge against unexpected price movements in the short term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a mixed picture with bearish technical indicators contrasting against a positive market sentiment. The fundamental balance remains stable, yet the cooling demand illustrated in the weather outlook could lead to shifts in consumption patterns. Analysts should closely monitor the convergence of these factors to identify potential outlook shifts, particularly in response to any changes in weather patterns or geopolitical developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.