Henry Hub settled at $2.925 on Monday, up roughly 3% on the session and closing at a one-week high as the market finally started listening to the production signal it had been ignoring all spring. Output across the Lower 48 has held at 109.6 Bcfd in May — below December's record 110.6 Bcfd — as producers including EQT continue curtailing rather than sell into sub-$3 spot prices, and the storage surplus has already narrowed to an estimated 6% above normal for the week ended May 7, down from 7% the prior week. The Waha Hub remains in negative territory for a record 66 consecutive days — a structural Permian pipeline constraint that continues to trap gas in the basin and suppress national averages — but that dynamic is increasingly priced in and no longer a drag on the forward curve. LNG feedgas flows softened to 17.2 Bcfd in May versus April's record 18.8 Bcfd, but that's maintenance-season noise, not a demand signal. At $2.925 the market is 7.5 cents from $3, the surplus is visibly eroding, and the producers are telling you exactly what they think fair value is — they're just waiting for the tape to catch up. Natty came back off after some weak weather forecasts which is undermining the move to $3 (it may not happen overnight but we are still fundamentally underpriced here).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-12 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices experienced a rollercoaster week, settling at $2.925—up 3% but facing pressure from rising production estimates and dwindling demand. The Lower 48 output remained stable at 109.6 Bcfd, while the storage surplus has narrowed to 6% above normal. Waha Hub's ongoing negative pricing reflects pipeline constraints, yet market sentiment shows a cautious optimism as producers signal fair value near $3. Despite softening LNG feedgas flows, the fundamentals suggest a potential upward trajectory, although weather forecasts may still dampen immediate gains.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.82
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.8
MA(20): $2.71
Current Price is 2.82, 9 day MA 2.8, 20 day MA 2.71
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0033
Signal: -0.0375
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,555
Avg (20d): 104,060
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 74.39
%D: 79.05
Stochastic %K: 74.39, %D: 79.05. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.08
+DI: 25.34
-DI: 14.35
ADX: 14.08 (+DI: 25.34, -DI: 14.35). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -25.61
Williams %R: -25.61 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.91
Middle: 2.71
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.91, Middle: 2.71, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
56.0 HDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
26.0 HDD
-12.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
33.0 CDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 05/18 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/17 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/18 | 8.0 | 3.0 | +5.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.3
Daily:
0.36 (0.36%)
Weekly:
0.28 (0.28%)
US_10Y
4.46
Daily:
0.05 (1.2%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.46%)
SP500
7400.96
Daily:
-11.88 (-0.16%)
Weekly:
35.84 (0.49%)
VIX
17.99
Daily:
-0.39 (-2.12%)
Weekly:
0.6 (3.45%)
GOLD
4712.8
Daily:
-5.9 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
30.9 (0.66%)
COPPER
6.65
Daily:
0.23 (3.66%)
Weekly:
0.51 (8.34%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.865 EUR/MWh (+0.489). JKM prices increased to 16.945 USD/MMBtu (+0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.080 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.865
+0.489Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-12
JKM Prices
16.945
+0.075Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-12
JKM-TTF Spread
1.080
6.81%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-12
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.2
16.6
15.0
13.4
11.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.865 |
| JUL 26 | 15.998 |
| AUG 26 | 15.991 |
| SEP 26 | 16.017 |
| OCT 26 | 15.958 |
| NOV 26 | 15.797 |
| DEC 26 | 15.799 |
| JAN 27 | 15.760 |
| FEB 27 | 15.645 |
| MAR 27 | 15.091 |
| APR 27 | 13.055 |
| MAY 27 | 12.381 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.945 |
| JUL 26 | 17.660 |
| AUG 26 | 17.525 |
| SEP 26 | 17.280 |
| OCT 26 | 16.940 |
| NOV 26 | 16.785 |
| DEC 26 | 16.805 |
| JAN 27 | 16.565 |
| FEB 27 | 16.010 |
| MAR 27 | 14.395 |
| APR 27 | 12.820 |
| MAY 27 | 12.750 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-11
Latest LNG Flow
17.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.85
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.00
BCF/D
Data Points
19
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | N/A |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
67
Last Updated:
2026-05-12 23:47:12
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Market Underestimates Risk to Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.82
Closest Support:
$2.72
3.55% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
1.77% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.84
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-12 23:47:12
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.09%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $2.87 | $2.74 | $3.0 |
| 2026-05-14 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
| 2026-05-15 | $2.86 | $2.73 | $2.99 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2.85 | $2.72 | $2.98 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.09% for the next trading day (2026-05-13), reaching $2.87.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-13 and 2026-05-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Traders should note a moderately bearish technical interpretation with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.72 and resistance at 2.87, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
With an ML price forecast suggesting a slight increase of 1.09% and a range between 2.74 to 3.0, traders might look for short-term opportunities while being cautious of volatility driven by the cooling demand across multiple regions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 1.68 BCFD with a positive change of +3.60. This indicates a stable supply environment, but the market sentiment for natural gas is currently neutral, which may affect pricing strategies.
Given the low heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors, producers may want to adjust production levels accordingly and consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price drops as cooling demand remains dominant.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the moderate cooling demand forecasted. While the overall market sentiment is positive, with a sentiment score of +0.350, the stability of supply remains crucial.
It is advisable for consumers to monitor the supply reliability risks as the market adjusts to changes in demand. Procurement strategies may need to be revisited to ensure cost-efficiency, especially if prices approach resistance levels.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reflects a moderately bearish technical sentiment with significant fundamental balance and overall market sentiment leaning positive. The divergence between technical indicators and market sentiment suggests potential volatility ahead.
Key driving factors include the cooling demand across various regions and the stable supply dynamics indicated by the fundamental balance. Analysts should watch for shifts in these factors, particularly as weather patterns evolve and market sentiment fluctuates.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.