Henry Hub settled at $2.925 on Monday, up roughly 3% on the session and closing at a one-week high as the market finally started listening to the production signal it had been ignoring all spring. Output across the Lower 48 has held at 109.6 Bcfd in May — below December's record 110.6 Bcfd — as producers including EQT continue curtailing rather than sell into sub-$3 spot prices, and the storage surplus has already narrowed to an estimated 6% above normal for the week ended May 7, down from 7% the prior week. The Waha Hub remains in negative territory for a record 66 consecutive days — a structural Permian pipeline constraint that continues to trap gas in the basin and suppress national averages — but that dynamic is increasingly priced in and no longer a drag on the forward curve. LNG feedgas flows softened to 17.2 Bcfd in May versus April's record 18.8 Bcfd, but that's maintenance-season noise, not a demand signal. At $2.925 the market is 7.5 cents from $3, the surplus is visibly eroding, and the producers are telling you exactly what they think fair value is — they're just waiting for the tape to catch up. Natty came back off after some weak weather forecasts which is undermining the move to $3 (it may not happen overnight but we are still fundamentally underpriced here).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-13 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have settled at $2.925, marking a 3% increase as the market responds to tighter production signals. Output remains below December’s peak, and storage surpluses are narrowing to just 6% above normal. While warmer temperatures are boosting air conditioning demand, the Waha Hub struggles with persistent negative pricing due to pipeline constraints. Despite recent weather forecasts dampening momentum, producers are bullish on fair value, indicating potential for further price recovery as fundamentals strengthen.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 1.68 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.86
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.81
MA(20): $2.72
Current Price is 2.86, 9 day MA 2.81, 20 day MA 2.72
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0059
Signal: -0.0286
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.01
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,545
Avg (20d): 105,331
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 82.47
%D: 84.88
Stochastic %K: 82.47, %D: 84.88. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.17
+DI: 24.67
-DI: 13.7
ADX: 15.17 (+DI: 24.67, -DI: 13.7). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -17.53
Williams %R: -17.53 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.93
Middle: 2.72
Lower: 2.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.93, Middle: 2.72, Lower: 2.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.1 | 106.7 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 107.0 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.7 | 31.5 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| Residential & Commercial | 23.7 | 25.5 | 13.4 | 16.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.1 | 18.2 | 15.1 | 13.57 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 109.42 | 113.02 | 95.0 | 95.53 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 1.68 | -1.92 | 14.9 | 11.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
56.0 HDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
21.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
39.0 CDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/18 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 05/19 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/16 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/17 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/18 | 8.0 | 3.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.48
Daily:
0.19 (0.19%)
Weekly:
0.23 (0.23%)
US_10Y
4.48
Daily:
0.02 (0.4%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.03%)
SP500
7444.25
Daily:
43.29 (0.58%)
Weekly:
107.14 (1.46%)
VIX
17.87
Daily:
-0.12 (-0.67%)
Weekly:
0.79 (4.63%)
GOLD
4691.3
Daily:
13.7 (0.29%)
Weekly:
-8.5 (-0.18%)
COPPER
6.58
Daily:
0.09 (1.4%)
Weekly:
0.45 (7.32%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.918 EUR/MWh (+0.053). JKM prices increased to 16.985 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.067 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.918
+0.053Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-13
JKM Prices
16.985
+0.040Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-13
JKM-TTF Spread
1.067
6.70%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.3
16.6
15.0
13.4
11.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.918 |
| JUL 26 | 16.053 |
| AUG 26 | 16.037 |
| SEP 26 | 16.056 |
| OCT 26 | 15.992 |
| NOV 26 | 15.784 |
| DEC 26 | 15.776 |
| JAN 27 | 15.708 |
| FEB 27 | 15.565 |
| MAR 27 | 14.999 |
| APR 27 | 12.950 |
| MAY 27 | 12.269 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.985 |
| JUL 26 | 17.730 |
| AUG 26 | 17.595 |
| SEP 26 | 17.325 |
| OCT 26 | 16.975 |
| NOV 26 | 16.785 |
| DEC 26 | 16.800 |
| JAN 27 | 16.525 |
| FEB 27 | 15.945 |
| MAR 27 | 14.300 |
| APR 27 | 12.775 |
| MAY 27 | 12.700 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-12
Latest LNG Flow
16.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.2%)
30-Day Average
17.80
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.80
BCF/D
Data Points
20
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | N/A |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
97
Last Updated:
2026-05-13 23:47:30
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Market Underestimates Risk to Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Indian PM's Call to Cut Energy Use Signals Policy Changes Ahead — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BOJ April Meeting Summary Leaves Room for Policy Options — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.86
Closest Support:
$2.72
4.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
0.35% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.86
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-13 23:47:31
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.0%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
| 2026-05-15 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2.83 | $2.7 | $2.96 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
| 2026-05-18 | $2.84 | $2.71 | $2.97 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.00% for the next trading day (2026-05-14), reaching $2.84.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-14 and 2026-05-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market analysis indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is set at 2.72, while resistance is at 2.87. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they may present short-term opportunities or risks.
Additionally, the ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 1.00%, with a trading range forecasted between 2.71 and 2.97. This indicates possible price volatility, which could be leveraged for short-term trades.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 1.68 BCFD with a slight increase of +3.60, indicating a stable supply environment. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and adjusting output to align with demand forecasts.
The overall market sentiment is positive, with a sentiment score of +0.350. This could support pricing stability; however, the lack of upward momentum in natural gas sentiment may warrant caution in hedging strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The weather outlook indicates low heating demand with a cooling dominance in regions such as the South and West. This could lead to potential cost fluctuations for consumers, particularly in the cooling season.
Given the moderately bearish technical indicators and the price forecast suggesting a slight decline, consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with future price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reflects a convergence of factors leaning towards a moderately bearish outlook in the short term, driven by fundamental supply dynamics and low heating demand.
Despite the overall market sentiment being positive, the lack of significant upward movement in crude oil sentiment and the bearish technical indicators suggest potential shifts in market dynamics that analysts should closely monitor.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.