Henry Hub settled at $2.925 on Monday, up roughly 3% on the session and closing at a one-week high as the market finally started listening to the production signal it had been ignoring all spring. Output across the Lower 48 has held at 109.6 Bcfd in May — below December's record 110.6 Bcfd — as producers including EQT continue curtailing rather than sell into sub-$3 spot prices, and the storage surplus has already narrowed to an estimated 6% above normal for the week ended May 7, down from 7% the prior week. The Waha Hub remains in negative territory for a record 66 consecutive days — a structural Permian pipeline constraint that continues to trap gas in the basin and suppress national averages — but that dynamic is increasingly priced in and no longer a drag on the forward curve. LNG feedgas flows softened to 17.2 Bcfd in May versus April's record 18.8 Bcfd, but that's maintenance-season noise, not a demand signal. At $2.925 the market is 7.5 cents from $3, the surplus is visibly eroding, and the producers are telling you exactly what they think fair value is — they're just waiting for the tape to catch up. Natty came back off after some weak weather forecasts which is undermining the move to $3 (it may not happen overnight but we are still fundamentally underpriced here).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-14 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged to a seven-week high, closing at $2.925 as output remains constrained at 109.6 Bcfd, signaling producers' reluctance to sell at sub-$3 prices. The storage surplus has narrowed to 6% above normal, indicating tighter market conditions. Despite a structural pipeline constraint at Waha Hub and softened LNG flows, the current price reflects a bullish sentiment as producers await a fair value alignment. Watch for weather forecasts and inventory reports as potential market movers in the coming weeks.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.93
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.83
MA(20): $2.73
Current Price is 2.93, 9 day MA 2.83, 20 day MA 2.73
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0167
Signal: -0.0195
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.28
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,050
Avg (20d): 106,644
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.07
%D: 85.15
Stochastic %K: 95.07, %D: 85.15. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.31
+DI: 23.75
-DI: 12.48
ADX: 16.31 (+DI: 23.75, -DI: 12.48). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.93
Williams %R: -4.93 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.96
Middle: 2.73
Lower: 2.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.96, Middle: 2.73, Lower: 2.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
54.0 HDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
38.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/14 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/18 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/19 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/20 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/14 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/18 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/20 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.05
Daily:
0.57 (0.58%)
Weekly:
1.21 (1.24%)
US_10Y
4.46
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.45%)
Weekly:
0.1 (2.22%)
SP500
7501.24
Daily:
56.99 (0.77%)
Weekly:
102.31 (1.38%)
VIX
17.26
Daily:
-0.61 (-3.41%)
Weekly:
0.07 (0.41%)
GOLD
4615.9
Daily:
-81.8 (-1.74%)
Weekly:
-104.5 (-2.21%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
-0.21 (-3.15%)
Weekly:
0.18 (2.84%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,637
Change: +50,037
Managed Money
-107,489
Change: -10,244
-6.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,041
Change: -1,463
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,191
Change: +3,578
11.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-59,157
Change: +9,871
-3.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-05
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: +50,789
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.948 EUR/MWh (+0.030). JKM prices increased to 17.020 USD/MMBtu (+0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.072 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.948
+0.030Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-14
JKM Prices
17.020
+0.035Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-14
JKM-TTF Spread
1.072
6.72%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-14
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.4
16.7
15.0
13.4
11.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.948 |
| JUL 26 | 16.108 |
| AUG 26 | 16.104 |
| SEP 26 | 16.124 |
| OCT 26 | 16.049 |
| NOV 26 | 15.811 |
| DEC 26 | 15.804 |
| JAN 27 | 15.733 |
| FEB 27 | 15.586 |
| MAR 27 | 15.009 |
| APR 27 | 12.937 |
| MAY 27 | 12.230 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.020 |
| JUL 26 | 17.840 |
| AUG 26 | 17.680 |
| SEP 26 | 17.405 |
| OCT 26 | 17.030 |
| NOV 26 | 16.800 |
| DEC 26 | 16.800 |
| JAN 27 | 16.520 |
| FEB 27 | 15.895 |
| MAR 27 | 14.250 |
| APR 27 | 12.710 |
| MAY 27 | 12.635 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-13
Latest LNG Flow
16.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.40
(-2.4%)
30-Day Average
17.73
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.40
BCF/D
Data Points
21
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | N/A |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.725
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
117
Last Updated:
2026-05-14 23:47:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- WTI Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- Oil Market Underestimates Risk to Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures jump 6% to six-week high as output falls, Freeport LNG train restarts Reuters
- US natgas futures rise 3% as output falls and Waha prices stay negative Reuters
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Indian PM's Call to Cut Energy Use Signals Policy Changes Ahead — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BOJ April Meeting Summary Leaves Room for Policy Options — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.93
Closest Support:
$2.87
2.05% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.99
2.05% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
Support
0.5
$2.99
Resistance
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-14 23:47:44
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $2.9 | $2.77 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2.9 | $2.76 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-18 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
| 2026-05-19 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-05-15), reaching $2.90.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-15 and 2026-05-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market sentiment is overall bullish despite a moderately bearish technical interpretation with a score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.87 and resistance at 2.99, indicating potential price volatility within this range. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.15%, suggesting short-term opportunities but also highlighting the need for caution given the bearish technical score.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of 7.58 BCFD and a change of +5.90, producers may need to adjust their production planning to align with the current demand trends. The overall market sentiment can provide a favorable environment for hedging strategies, especially with natural gas sentiment at +0.800. However, producers should remain vigilant about supply tightness and geopolitical factors that could impact operational stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should anticipate potential fluctuations in costs given the current fundamental balance and the overall market sentiment. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may affect procurement strategies. It is advisable to consider hedging against price volatility, particularly with the predicted price range of 2.77 to 3.03.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The convergence of a moderately bearish technical outlook and a bullish news sentiment creates a complex market picture. Key driving factors include the fundamental balance and the weather outlook, which favor cooling demand in several regions. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely for potential shifts in market sentiment and price direction, especially considering the ML price forecast indicating a slight upward movement.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.