Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-15 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices have finally surged towards $3, buoyed by forecasts of warmer weather, which could ignite demand as we head into summer. Despite the current mild conditions, traders are optimistic about potential heat waves, projecting a rise to $3.50+ if these forecasts hold true. As output decreases and European gas prices climb, the market sentiment suggests a bullish trajectory. Keep an eye on weather developments, as they could significantly impact demand and prices in the coming weeks.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.96
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.84
MA(20): $2.75
Current Price is 2.96, 9 day MA 2.84, 20 day MA 2.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0256
Signal: -0.0109
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.09
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.09 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 128,107
Avg (20d): 114,630
Ratio: 1.12
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.79
%D: 89.07
Stochastic %K: 95.79, %D: 89.07. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.09
+DI: 24.27
-DI: 12.4
ADX: 17.09 (+DI: 24.27, -DI: 12.4). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.21
Williams %R: -4.21 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.99
Middle: 2.75
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.99, Middle: 2.75, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
50.0 HDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
17.0 HDD
-17.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+23.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/18 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/19 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/20 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/21 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/17 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/18 | 9.0 | 3.0 | +6.0 |
| 05/19 | 9.0 | 4.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/20 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/21 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.27
Daily:
0.39 (0.39%)
Weekly:
1.33 (1.36%)
US_10Y
4.6
Daily:
0.13 (3.0%)
Weekly:
0.19 (4.2%)
SP500
7408.5
Daily:
-92.74 (-1.24%)
Weekly:
-4.34 (-0.06%)
VIX
18.43
Daily:
1.17 (6.78%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.27%)
GOLD
4543.6
Daily:
-134.5 (-2.88%)
Weekly:
-175.1 (-3.71%)
COPPER
6.29
Daily:
-0.28 (-4.23%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-1.93%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.054 EUR/MWh (+0.106). JKM prices increased to 17.065 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.011 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.054
+0.106Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-15
JKM Prices
17.065
+0.045Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-15
JKM-TTF Spread
1.011
6.30%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.6
16.8
15.0
13.2
11.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.054 |
| JUL 26 | 16.297 |
| AUG 26 | 16.272 |
| SEP 26 | 16.260 |
| OCT 26 | 16.109 |
| NOV 26 | 15.792 |
| DEC 26 | 15.722 |
| JAN 27 | 15.612 |
| FEB 27 | 15.436 |
| MAR 27 | 14.836 |
| APR 27 | 12.707 |
| MAY 27 | 11.977 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.065 |
| JUL 26 | 18.025 |
| AUG 26 | 17.830 |
| SEP 26 | 17.465 |
| OCT 26 | 16.980 |
| NOV 26 | 16.790 |
| DEC 26 | 16.680 |
| JAN 27 | 16.325 |
| FEB 27 | 15.605 |
| MAR 27 | 14.095 |
| APR 27 | 12.460 |
| MAY 27 | 12.390 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-14
Latest LNG Flow
16.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.2%)
30-Day Average
17.68
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.40
BCF/D
Data Points
22
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | N/A |
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
114
Last Updated:
2026-05-15 23:47:30
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- U.S. Diesel Exports Defy Low Inventory Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil ends flat as tanker crossings through Strait of Hormuz temper supply fears Reuters
- Oil Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- WTI Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- Backwardation in Oil: Fading Supply Concerns or Underpricing Risk? CME Group
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves Reuters
- US natural gas futures hit six-week high as output declines Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Fall as EIA Raises US Gas Production Estimates Barchart
Demand (4 articles)
- U.S. Diesel Exports Defy Low Inventory Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Low-Income Countries Most Vulnerable to Lost Oil Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves Reuters
- US natural gas prices dip on weak demand and high storage levels Reuters
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Indian PM's Call to Cut Energy Use Signals Policy Changes Ahead — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BOJ April Meeting Summary Leaves Room for Policy Options — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.96
Closest Support:
$2.87
3.04% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.99
1.01% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
Support
0.5
$2.99
Resistance
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-15 23:47:31
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $2.9 | $2.77 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-16 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2.9 | $2.76 | $3.03 |
| 2026-05-18 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
| 2026-05-19 | $2.89 | $2.76 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-05-15), reaching $2.90.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-15 and 2026-05-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.87 and resistance is at 2.99. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance is at 7.58 BCFD with a notable increase of +5.90, indicating a potential oversupply in the market. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of UP (0.15%) within the range of 2.77 to 3.03, presenting short-term trading opportunities but also increased volatility risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment is bullish overall, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of +0.600. However, the fundamental balance indicates a significant increase in supply, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and potential oversupply. The weather outlook suggests low heating demand, particularly in residential and commercial sectors, which may influence demand for natural gas in the short term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows signs of increased supply. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand, which could lead to lower prices in the short term. However, the fundamental balance at 7.58 BCFD suggests that supply reliability might be at risk if demand unexpectedly increases. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that account for these potential shifts in supply and pricing.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a bullish overall sentiment, particularly in natural gas. However, the moderately bearish technical indicators and increasing fundamental balance suggest a complex market environment. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand, which could further impact pricing dynamics. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, as they may signal a shift in market conditions and necessitate adjustments in forecasts and strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.