Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-16 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas futures have recently surged towards $3, driven by warmer U.S. weather forecasts and decreasing output, marking a seven-week high. Despite the current mild weather, bullish sentiment persists as predictions of a scorching summer loom, suggesting potential prices could exceed $3.50 if heat materializes. Meanwhile, European gas prices are also on the rise, reflecting global market dynamics. Traders should keep a close eye on weather patterns and output levels, as these factors could significantly influence price movements in the near term.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.96
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.84
MA(20): $2.75
Current Price is 2.96, 9 day MA 2.84, 20 day MA 2.75
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0255
Signal: -0.0109
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.04
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 144,509
Avg (20d): 115,450
Ratio: 1.25
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.59
%D: 89.01
Stochastic %K: 95.59, %D: 89.01. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.09
+DI: 24.27
-DI: 12.4
ADX: 17.09 (+DI: 24.27, -DI: 12.4). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.41
Williams %R: -4.41 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.99
Middle: 2.75
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.99, Middle: 2.75, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
47.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
18.0 HDD
-15.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
43.0 CDD
+18.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/16 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/17 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/18 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/19 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/20 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/09 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/17 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/18 | 8.0 | 3.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/20 | 7.0 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.27
Daily:
0.39 (0.39%)
Weekly:
1.33 (1.36%)
US_10Y
4.59
Daily:
0.13 (3.0%)
Weekly:
0.18 (4.2%)
SP500
7408.5
Daily:
-92.74 (-1.24%)
Weekly:
-4.34 (-0.06%)
VIX
18.43
Daily:
1.17 (6.78%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.27%)
GOLD
4555.8
Daily:
-122.3 (-2.61%)
Weekly:
-162.9 (-3.45%)
COPPER
6.25
Daily:
-0.32 (-4.81%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.53%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.432 EUR/MWh (+0.378). JKM prices increased to 17.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.673 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.432
+0.378Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-16
JKM Prices
17.105
+0.040Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-16
JKM-TTF Spread
0.673
4.10%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.5
15.5
13.6
11.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.432 |
| JUL 26 | 17.104 |
| AUG 26 | 17.071 |
| SEP 26 | 17.052 |
| OCT 26 | 16.897 |
| NOV 26 | 16.537 |
| DEC 26 | 16.429 |
| JAN 27 | 16.307 |
| FEB 27 | 16.100 |
| MAR 27 | 15.405 |
| APR 27 | 13.045 |
| MAY 27 | 12.239 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.105 |
| JUL 26 | 18.795 |
| AUG 26 | 18.600 |
| SEP 26 | 18.245 |
| OCT 26 | 17.755 |
| NOV 26 | 17.425 |
| DEC 26 | 17.360 |
| JAN 27 | 16.980 |
| FEB 27 | 16.285 |
| MAR 27 | 14.455 |
| APR 27 | 12.665 |
| MAY 27 | 12.580 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-15
Latest LNG Flow
16.70
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.63
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.40
BCF/D
Data Points
23
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 17.00 | N/A |
| 2026-05-07 | 17.10 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
88
Last Updated:
2026-05-16 23:46:57
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.8
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves Reuters
- US natural gas futures hit six-week high as output declines Reuters
- Oil ends flat as tanker crossings through Strait of Hormuz temper supply fears Reuters
- Oil Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- WTI Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.96
Closest Support:
$2.87
3.04% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.99
1.01% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
Support
0.5
$2.99
Resistance
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.96
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-16 23:46:58
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.31%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | $2.95 | $2.82 | $3.08 |
| 2026-05-17 | $2.96 | $2.83 | $3.09 |
| 2026-05-18 | $2.95 | $2.82 | $3.08 |
| 2026-05-19 | $2.95 | $2.82 | $3.08 |
| 2026-05-20 | $2.95 | $2.81 | $3.08 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2026-05-16), reaching $2.95.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-16 and 2026-05-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Traders should note the moderately bearish technical interpretation, with a Fibonacci support level at 2.87 and resistance at 2.99. The potential for volatility exists given the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline of 0.31%. Short-term trading opportunities may arise around these key levels, particularly if price action approaches support or resistance.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 7.58 BCFD, showing an increase that could impact supply strategies. The positive sentiment surrounding natural gas, indicated by a score of +0.800, suggests a favorable demand outlook. This may influence hedging strategies as producers look to capitalize on potential price recovery despite current bearish technical signals.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term, as the fundamental balance indicates an increase in supply. The weather outlook suggests low heating and cooling demand, which may stabilize prices but also presents a risk of supply reliability if demand unexpectedly shifts. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies to mitigate potential price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a mixed picture with bearish technical signals juxtaposed against a positive sentiment in natural gas. Key driving factors include the increasing fundamental balance and regional weather patterns that favor cooling demand in specific areas. Analysts should monitor these elements closely for any shifts in market dynamics that could influence overall sentiment and pricing trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.