Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold). The week started with the expected move above $3
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-18 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices have surged past $3, buoyed by forecasts of scorching summer temperatures and rising cooling demand. Recent reports indicate U.S. gas futures are at a seven-week high as output tightens amidst increased consumption. While current mild weather tempers bullish sentiment, the expectation of heat could push prices to $3.50+ in the coming weeks. In Europe, gas prices are also experiencing fluctuations, reflecting broader market dynamics. Keep an eye on weather patterns and demand trends for upcoming trading strategies!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.86
MA(20): $2.76
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 2.86, 20 day MA 2.76
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0391
Signal: -0.0009
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 62.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 62.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,760
Avg (20d): 110,888
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.76
%D: 93.44
Stochastic %K: 95.76, %D: 93.44. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.6
+DI: 26.48
-DI: 11.83
ADX: 18.6 (+DI: 26.48, -DI: 11.83). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.24
Williams %R: -4.24 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.03
Middle: 2.76
Lower: 2.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.03, Middle: 2.76, Lower: 2.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
40.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
22.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
18.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
42.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/18 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/24 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/18 | 9.0 | 3.0 | +6.0 |
| 05/19 | 9.0 | 4.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/20 | 7.0 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.08
Daily:
-0.19 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
0.79 (0.8%)
US_10Y
4.62
Daily:
0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly:
0.16 (3.59%)
SP500
7403.05
Daily:
-5.45 (-0.07%)
Weekly:
2.09 (0.03%)
VIX
17.82
Daily:
-0.61 (-3.31%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-0.94%)
GOLD
4553.8
Daily:
-2.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-123.8 (-2.65%)
COPPER
6.26
Daily:
0.0 (0.08%)
Weekly:
-0.23 (-3.52%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.432 EUR/MWh (+0.378). JKM prices increased to 17.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.673 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.432
+0.378Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-18
JKM Prices
17.105
+0.040Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-18
JKM-TTF Spread
0.673
4.10%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.5
15.5
13.6
11.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.432 |
| JUL 26 | 17.104 |
| AUG 26 | 17.071 |
| SEP 26 | 17.052 |
| OCT 26 | 16.897 |
| NOV 26 | 16.537 |
| DEC 26 | 16.429 |
| JAN 27 | 16.307 |
| FEB 27 | 16.100 |
| MAR 27 | 15.405 |
| APR 27 | 13.045 |
| MAY 27 | 12.239 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.105 |
| JUL 26 | 18.795 |
| AUG 26 | 18.600 |
| SEP 26 | 18.245 |
| OCT 26 | 17.755 |
| NOV 26 | 17.425 |
| DEC 26 | 17.360 |
| JAN 27 | 16.980 |
| FEB 27 | 16.285 |
| MAR 27 | 14.455 |
| APR 27 | 12.665 |
| MAY 27 | 12.580 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-17
Latest LNG Flow
17.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.58
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.40
BCF/D
Data Points
25
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 17.20 | N/A |
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
74
Last Updated:
2026-05-18 23:48:05
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Settle Higher on Inventory Worries — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Sterling Vulnerable to Fall If Geopolitical Concerns Intensify — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Rise With No End to Middle East Conflict in Sight — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.99
0.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
2.98% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-18 23:48:06
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.13%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $3.03 | $2.89 | $3.16 |
| 2026-05-20 | $3.03 | $2.9 | $3.16 |
| 2026-05-21 | $3.02 | $2.89 | $3.15 |
| 2026-05-22 | $3.02 | $2.88 | $3.15 |
| 2026-05-23 | $3.01 | $2.88 | $3.14 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2026-05-19), reaching $3.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-19 and 2026-05-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market analysis indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. Traders should pay close attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and the resistance level at 3.11, as these could dictate short-term price movements. The ML price forecast suggests a potential 0.13% increase, with a range of 2.89 to 3.16, indicating possible volatility. Traders should consider this range for short-term opportunities, while being cautious of the bearish technical indicators which may pose risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of 7.58 BCFD and a positive change of +5.90, producers may find opportunities for increased production, especially in regions with high cooling demand. However, the overall market sentiment is bullish, particularly for crude oil, which could support pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price fluctuations, especially given the geopolitical risks reflected in the -0.250 sentiment score regarding geopolitical factors.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of the expected low heating demand and moderate cooling demand in the upcoming weather outlook, which could influence cost structures. The current market sentiment is bullish, but with the technical indicators showing a moderate bearish sentiment, there may be risks in supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price increases, especially as the market navigates through these fluctuations.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market presents a mixed picture, with strong bullish sentiment for crude oil contrasted against a moderately bearish outlook for natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a healthy supply, while the weather outlook suggests increased cooling demand, particularly in the South and West. Analysts should focus on the technical indicators and the market sentiment to identify potential shifts. The geopolitical risks associated with crude oil could also impact overall market dynamics, warranting close monitoring.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.