Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold). The week started with the expected move above $3 with continuation to $3.127 (the target from the beginning of the week)
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-19 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged, recently crossing the $3 mark, driven by forecasts of a scorching summer and seasonal maintenance curtailing production. With the East Coast heating up, futures have hit a seven-week high, and European gas prices are at a six-week peak. However, the current mild weather dampens bullish expectations for immediate gains. Analysts suggest that if the heat forecasts hold, prices could climb to $3.50+ as demand spikes. Watch for weather updates and production trends as key indicators in the coming weeks!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.9
MA(20): $2.78
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 2.9, 20 day MA 2.78
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0558
Signal: 0.0105
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,016
Avg (20d): 113,691
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 96.95
%D: 93.1
Stochastic %K: 96.95, %D: 93.1. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.76
+DI: 28.56
-DI: 10.89
ADX: 20.76 (+DI: 28.56, -DI: 10.89). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.05
Williams %R: -3.05 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 3.09
Middle: 2.78
Lower: 2.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.09, Middle: 2.78, Lower: 2.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
37.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
25.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
21.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
39.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/17 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/25 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/19 | 9.0 | 4.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/20 | 7.0 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/25 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.31
Daily:
0.34 (0.35%)
Weekly:
0.83 (0.85%)
US_10Y
4.67
Daily:
0.04 (0.95%)
Weekly:
0.19 (4.15%)
SP500
7353.61
Daily:
-49.44 (-0.67%)
Weekly:
-90.64 (-1.22%)
VIX
18.06
Daily:
0.24 (1.35%)
Weekly:
0.19 (1.06%)
GOLD
4466.0
Daily:
-86.5 (-1.9%)
Weekly:
-231.7 (-4.93%)
COPPER
6.17
Daily:
-0.1 (-1.64%)
Weekly:
-0.47 (-7.03%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.450 EUR/MWh (+0.018). JKM prices remained stable to 17.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.655 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.450
+0.018Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-19
JKM Prices
17.105
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-19
JKM-TTF Spread
0.655
3.98%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.6
15.6
13.7
11.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.450 |
| JUL 26 | 17.197 |
| AUG 26 | 17.190 |
| SEP 26 | 17.182 |
| OCT 26 | 17.073 |
| NOV 26 | 16.715 |
| DEC 26 | 16.612 |
| JAN 27 | 16.485 |
| FEB 27 | 16.251 |
| MAR 27 | 15.543 |
| APR 27 | 13.145 |
| MAY 27 | 12.339 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.105 |
| JUL 26 | 18.960 |
| AUG 26 | 18.565 |
| SEP 26 | 18.180 |
| OCT 26 | 17.930 |
| NOV 26 | 17.585 |
| DEC 26 | 17.325 |
| JAN 27 | 16.690 |
| FEB 27 | 15.535 |
| MAR 27 | 14.135 |
| APR 27 | 12.605 |
| MAY 27 | 12.790 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-18
Latest LNG Flow
17.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
17.56
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.40
BCF/D
Data Points
26
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 17.10 | N/A |
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
75
Last Updated:
2026-05-19 23:47:22
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Sterling Vulnerable to Fall If Geopolitical Concerns Intensify — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Rise With No End to Middle East Conflict in Sight — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$2.99
3.55% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
0.32% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.11
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-19 23:47:23
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.21%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $3.11 | $2.98 | $3.23 |
| 2026-05-21 | $3.11 | $2.99 | $3.24 |
| 2026-05-22 | $3.1 | $2.97 | $3.22 |
| 2026-05-23 | $3.09 | $2.97 | $3.22 |
| 2026-05-24 | $3.09 | $2.96 | $3.21 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2026-05-20), reaching $3.11.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-20 and 2026-05-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish overall, despite a moderately bearish technical outlook with a score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and resistance at 3.11. The ML price forecast suggests a potential downturn of 0.21%, indicating short-term price volatility may occur within the range of 2.98 to 3.23. Traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in sentiment or market news that could impact these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of 7.58 BCFD with a change of +5.90 indicates a slight oversupply, which could affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, especially with the current technical outlook. The news sentiment around crude oil remains positive due to geopolitical tensions, which may provide a buffer against price drops. Monitoring supply disruptions and adjusting production plans accordingly could be crucial in navigating this market environment.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating and cooling demand expected across regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The technical sentiment may lead to lower prices, but the overall market sentiment suggests caution in long-term contracts. Consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to protect against volatility in the market.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market presents a moderately bearish technical outlook, juxtaposed with a positive news sentiment. The key driving factors include a fundamental oversupply and low demand forecasts, particularly in residential and commercial sectors. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their impacts on crude oil prices, as they may shift market dynamics. The combination of these factors suggests a potential for increased volatility in the near term, warranting ongoing analysis and adjustment of forecasts.
Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.