Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold). The week started with the expected move above $3 with continuation to $3.127 (the target from the beginning of the week)
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently rebounded, pushing above $3, driven by expectations of a hot summer ahead. However, forecasts of mild weather and increased storage levels have tempered bullish momentum, causing some price retreats. As of now, prices are hovering around $3.12, with potential to reach $3.50+ if heat expectations hold. Seasonal maintenance is also curbing production, adding upward pressure. Traders should keep an eye on weather trends and storage data as key indicators of future price movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.58 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.04
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.93
MA(20): $2.8
Current Price is 3.04, 9 day MA 2.93, 20 day MA 2.8
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0637
Signal: 0.0213
Days since crossover: 23
MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 61.01
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 61.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,336
Avg (20d): 116,947
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 78.77
%D: 87.34
Stochastic %K: 78.77, %D: 87.34. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.64
+DI: 27.4
-DI: 10.13
ADX: 22.64 (+DI: 27.4, -DI: 10.13). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -21.23
Williams %R: -21.23 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.12
Middle: 2.8
Lower: 2.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.12, Middle: 2.8, Lower: 2.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 107.1 | 105.7 | 101.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Total Supply | 111.0 | 111.1 | 110.4 | 106.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.13 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.1 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 31.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.4 | 23.7 | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| LNG Exports | 16.6 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 103.42 | 109.42 | 94.4 | 93.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.58 | 1.68 | 16.0 | 13.33 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
33.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
23.0 HDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
25.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
35.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/17 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/18 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/25 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/26 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/18 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/20 | 7.0 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/25 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/26 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.19
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
0.31 (0.31%)
US_10Y
4.57
Daily:
-0.09 (-2.04%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.49%)
SP500
7432.97
Daily:
79.36 (1.08%)
Weekly:
-68.27 (-0.91%)
VIX
17.44
Daily:
-0.62 (-3.43%)
Weekly:
0.18 (1.04%)
GOLD
4533.5
Daily:
27.2 (0.6%)
Weekly:
-144.6 (-3.09%)
COPPER
6.32
Daily:
0.15 (2.45%)
Weekly:
-0.25 (-3.83%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.627 EUR/MWh (+0.177). JKM prices remained stable to 17.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.478 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.627
+0.177Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-20
JKM Prices
17.105
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-20
JKM-TTF Spread
0.478
2.87%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.3
18.2
16.0
13.8
11.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.627 |
| JUL 26 | 17.648 |
| AUG 26 | 17.626 |
| SEP 26 | 17.606 |
| OCT 26 | 17.489 |
| NOV 26 | 17.110 |
| DEC 26 | 16.980 |
| JAN 27 | 16.806 |
| FEB 27 | 16.503 |
| MAR 27 | 15.738 |
| APR 27 | 13.203 |
| MAY 27 | 12.310 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 17.105 |
| JUL 26 | 19.615 |
| AUG 26 | 19.265 |
| SEP 26 | 18.830 |
| OCT 26 | 18.510 |
| NOV 26 | 18.010 |
| DEC 26 | 17.825 |
| JAN 27 | 17.180 |
| FEB 27 | 15.960 |
| MAR 27 | 14.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.600 |
| MAY 27 | 12.840 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-19
Latest LNG Flow
14.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
-2.40
(-14.1%)
30-Day Average
17.45
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
27
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 17.10 | N/A |
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.675
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
85
Last Updated:
2026-05-20 23:47:56
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- U.S. Monetary Policy Backdrop Could Favor Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Vulnerable to Fall If Geopolitical Concerns Intensify — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Rise With No End to Middle East Conflict in Sight — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.04
Closest Support:
$2.99
1.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
2.3% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.0
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-20 23:47:56
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $3.02 | $2.89 | $3.15 |
| 2026-05-22 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-23 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
| 2026-05-24 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-25 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-05-21), reaching $3.02.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-21 and 2026-05-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical sentiment with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.99 while the resistance level is at 3.11. This suggests that traders should monitor price movements closely, as the market is poised for potential volatility within this range.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.43%, with a range of 2.89 to 3.15. This may present short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices break above resistance levels. However, given the mixed signals, caution is advised.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance stands at 7.58 BCFD with a notable change of +5.90. This indicates a healthy supply-demand ratio of 1.073, which could support stable production levels.
With the overall market sentiment being bullish (+0.675), producers may consider adjusting their hedging strategies to capitalize on potential price increases. The geopolitical concerns reflected in the news sentiment may warrant caution in production planning, particularly in regions affected by instability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected due to the weather outlook showing cooling dominance (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 8.4), consumers can anticipate relatively stable costs in the short term. However, the risk of supply fluctuations remains, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate or production is affected.
It is advisable for consumers to consider their procurement strategies and potentially lock in prices if they anticipate future volatility, especially given the bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by several factors: a bullish overall sentiment, a stable fundamental balance, and a weather forecast favoring cooling demand. The technical indicators show a neutral outlook, suggesting no immediate drastic shifts are expected.
Key drivers include the positive sentiment around natural gas and crude oil, alongside geopolitical concerns that could introduce volatility. Analysts should monitor these developments closely as they may lead to shifts in market dynamics, particularly if supply disruptions occur.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.