Nat Gas finally pushed up towards $3 (we’ve been saying this ever since we touched the $2.50 level) - the challenge here is that we are looking at the mildest weather period of the year so expectations for bull moves are quiet and will continue to be that way until heat arrives. Long range forecasts point to a really HOT HOT HOT summer - if true - this will be the lowest we see Nat Gas all year - and I think we are headed to $3.50+ soon (assuming weather expectations hold). The week started with the expected move above $3 with continuation to $3.127 (the target from the beginning of the week). $3 is the key bull/bear line and where we have been serving as a magnet over the last week.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-21 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently climbed, breaching the $3 mark and reaching $3.127, driven by forecasts of a scorching summer ahead. This comes amid a mild weather period, which has stunted bullish moves. Current inventory levels show a build of 101 billion cubic feet, hinting at increased supply, yet the demand outlook has improved as output dips. Traders should keep an eye on temperature forecasts and storage reports, as a hot summer could propel prices to $3.50+, marking a potential turning point for the market.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand increased by 10.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.13
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $2.82
Current Price is 3.13, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 2.82
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0742
Signal: 0.0315
Days since crossover: 24
MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 64.32
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 64.32 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,354
Avg (20d): 120,491
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 98.92
%D: 88.8
Stochastic %K: 98.92, %D: 88.8. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.7
+DI: 24.57
-DI: 10.13
ADX: 23.7 (+DI: 24.57, -DI: 10.13). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -1.08
Williams %R: -1.08 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.16
Middle: 2.82
Lower: 2.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.16, Middle: 2.82, Lower: 2.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.6 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.5 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.8 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 20.9 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 12.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.4 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.67 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.63 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 113.42 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 94.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.52 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
30.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
22.0 HDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
31.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
33.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/17 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/18 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/21 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/25 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/18 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/21 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/26 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.25
Daily:
0.14 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.02%)
US_10Y
4.59
Daily:
0.01 (0.31%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.2%)
SP500
7445.72
Daily:
12.75 (0.17%)
Weekly:
37.22 (0.5%)
VIX
16.76
Daily:
-0.68 (-3.9%)
Weekly:
-1.67 (-9.06%)
GOLD
4524.7
Daily:
-6.6 (-0.15%)
Weekly:
-31.1 (-0.68%)
COPPER
6.36
Daily:
0.07 (1.08%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.71%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,628,279
Change: -358
Managed Money
-120,065
Change: -12,576
-7.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,324
Change: +1,717
-1.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
185,567
Change: +4,376
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-56,241
Change: +2,916
-3.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-12
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: +14,100
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.367 EUR/MWh (-0.260). JKM prices decreased to 18.905 USD/MMBtu (-0.710). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.538 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.367
-0.260Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-21
JKM Prices
18.905
-0.710Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-21
JKM-TTF Spread
2.538
15.51%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.5
15.5
13.5
11.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.367 |
| JUL 26 | 16.879 |
| AUG 26 | 16.879 |
| SEP 26 | 16.888 |
| OCT 26 | 16.804 |
| NOV 26 | 16.516 |
| DEC 26 | 16.435 |
| JAN 27 | 16.317 |
| FEB 27 | 16.069 |
| MAR 27 | 15.392 |
| APR 27 | 12.946 |
| MAY 27 | 12.103 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.905 |
| AUG 26 | 18.355 |
| SEP 26 | 18.045 |
| OCT 26 | 17.740 |
| NOV 26 | 17.355 |
| DEC 26 | 17.195 |
| JAN 27 | 16.645 |
| FEB 27 | 15.500 |
| MAR 27 | 14.425 |
| APR 27 | 12.350 |
| MAY 27 | 12.595 |
| JUN 27 | 12.655 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-20
Latest LNG Flow
17.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+2.40
(+16.4%)
30-Day Average
17.43
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 17.00 | N/A |
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
107
Last Updated:
2026-05-21 23:47:25
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.8
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- US gas futures hit seven-week high as heat drives demand and output slips Reuters
- Oil Falls as Supply-Disruption Concerns Ease — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- Glenfarne, ConocoPhillips Sign Gas Supply Precedent Agreement For Alaska LNG dpa-AFX
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- U.S. Monetary Policy Backdrop Could Favor Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Vulnerable to Fall If Geopolitical Concerns Intensify — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Rise With No End to Middle East Conflict in Sight — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
- Forecasts for Hot US Temps Push Nat-Gas Prices Higher Barchart
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain As Weather Heats Up — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.13
Closest Support:
$3.11
0.64% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.28
4.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
Support
0.786
$3.28
Resistance
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-21 23:47:25
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-23 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
| 2026-05-24 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-25 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
| 2026-05-26 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.12 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.02% for the next trading day (2026-05-22), reaching $2.99.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-22 and 2026-05-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.11 and resistance at 3.28, which could play a crucial role in price movement. The ML price forecast predicts a decrease of 1.02%, suggesting potential short-term volatility. Traders should be cautious of price fluctuations within the range of 2.86 to 3.12, and consider opportunities to capitalize on the downward trend.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance indicates a deficit of -1.52 BCFD, which may impact production planning. Given the positive demand sentiment for natural gas (+0.167), producers should consider adjusting output to meet potential increases in cooling demand. The current market sentiment is mixed, with a focus on hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With cooling demand expected to dominate, particularly in the South and West regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The 1.02% decrease in ML price forecasts could provide a window for procurement at lower costs. However, the risk of supply reliability remains due to ongoing geopolitical concerns and the fundamental balance indicating a negative trend. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging options to protect against price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish technical indicators and bullish demand sentiment for natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a significant shift, with a deficit of -1.52 BCFD suggesting tightening supply conditions. Analysts should focus on the weather forecasts that predict increased cooling demand, particularly in warmer regions, as a key driving factor for potential price shifts. Overall, the market sentiment remains neutral, but with caution advised due to geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.