The gas market is doing something the headline price at $3.02 completely fails to communicate: it is getting structurally tighter every single day, and the storage surplus the bears keep pointing to is being quietly eaten alive. Production has flatlined at 106.6 Bcf/d — up just 0.1 Bcf/d year-over-year, which rounds to zero — while demand has broken out in three directions simultaneously. Power burn hit 39.4 Bcf/d on Wednesday, a number that is 10.7 Bcf/d above the same day last year, and even after stripping out the week's above-normal temperatures the structural demand increase is 1.8 Bcf/d — meaning real, baseline, weather-independent consumption of gas-fired power is growing. LNG exports are running 1.6 Bcf/d above last year at 17.0 Bcf/d despite seasonal maintenance pulling flows down from April's record 18.8 Bcf/d, and three US LNG cargoes are reportedly heading to China in June for the first time since February 2025. The net result is a daily supply/demand imbalance running 7.4 Bcf/d tight versus the 5-year average — the most consistent tightening streak of the injection season — which means the 6.5% storage surplus the market is discounting is on a clock. Today's EIA storage report is the first real test: a print under 90 Bcf confirms the tightening is real and $3.449 becomes a math problem, not a forecast; a print over 100 Bcf hands the bears a week and $2.76 comes back into the conversation. The global backdrop only adds pressure — Europe is 37% full against a 50% seasonal average, Ras Laffan is running at 17% reduced capacity with a 3 to 5 year repair timeline, and the Hormuz closure has made the US the incremental LNG supplier for two continents. At $3.02, the market is pricing the inventory number. It has not priced the trajectory. Nat Gas ended the week just below the key support/resistance level of 2.924.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-22 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently at $3.02, reflecting a market that is tightening despite a perceived storage surplus. Production has stagnated at 106.6 Bcf/d, while demand is surging—power burn is up 10.7 Bcf/d year-on-year. However, cooler weather forecasts have recently pressured prices, leading to a 4% drop. The upcoming EIA storage report will be pivotal: a figure below 90 Bcf could signal further tightening, while over 100 Bcf might embolden bearish sentiment. Watch for the trajectory—it's more than just inventory!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand increased by 10.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.03
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $2.84
Current Price is 3.03, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 2.84
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0685
Signal: 0.0374
Days since crossover: 25
MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.34
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.34 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 143,619
Avg (20d): 128,679
Ratio: 1.12
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 75.85
%D: 73.62
Stochastic %K: 75.85, %D: 73.62. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.33
+DI: 27.81
-DI: 9.86
ADX: 25.33 (+DI: 27.81, -DI: 9.86). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -24.15
Williams %R: -24.15 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.15
Middle: 2.84
Lower: 2.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.15, Middle: 2.84, Lower: 2.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.6 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.5 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.8 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 20.9 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 12.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.4 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.67 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.63 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 113.42 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 94.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.52 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
28.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
35.0 CDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
35.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/15 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/17 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/18 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/24 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/14 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/15 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/18 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/20 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/23 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/26 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.32
Daily:
0.13 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.35 (0.35%)
US_10Y
4.56
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.41%)
SP500
7473.47
Daily:
27.75 (0.37%)
Weekly:
70.42 (0.95%)
VIX
16.7
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.36%)
Weekly:
-1.12 (-6.29%)
GOLD
4510.5
Daily:
-29.3 (-0.65%)
Weekly:
-42.0 (-0.92%)
COPPER
6.38
Daily:
0.12 (1.97%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.73%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,599,429
Change: -28,850
Managed Money
-96,303
Change: +23,762
-6.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,268
Change: +6,056
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
194,492
Change: +8,925
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-95,893
Change: -39,652
-6.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.353 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices increased to 18.920 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.567 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.353
-0.014Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-22
JKM Prices
18.920
+0.015Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-22
JKM-TTF Spread
2.567
15.70%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.5
15.5
13.4
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.353 |
| JUL 26 | 16.839 |
| AUG 26 | 16.830 |
| SEP 26 | 16.820 |
| OCT 26 | 16.756 |
| NOV 26 | 16.485 |
| DEC 26 | 16.422 |
| JAN 27 | 16.287 |
| FEB 27 | 16.036 |
| MAR 27 | 15.331 |
| APR 27 | 12.874 |
| MAY 27 | 11.997 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.920 |
| AUG 26 | 18.335 |
| SEP 26 | 18.010 |
| OCT 26 | 17.750 |
| NOV 26 | 17.385 |
| DEC 26 | 17.245 |
| JAN 27 | 16.670 |
| FEB 27 | 15.510 |
| MAR 27 | 14.405 |
| APR 27 | 12.260 |
| MAY 27 | 12.510 |
| JUN 27 | 12.575 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-23 to 2026-05-21
Latest LNG Flow
17.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.40
(+2.4%)
30-Day Average
17.43
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.80
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 16.80 | N/A |
| 2026-05-13 | 16.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
94
Last Updated:
2026-05-22 23:47:32
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- U.S. Monetary Policy Backdrop Could Favor Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Edge Up on Warm Weather — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.03
Closest Support:
$2.99
1.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
2.64% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-22 23:47:33
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-23 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
| 2026-05-24 | $2.99 | $2.86 | $3.12 |
| 2026-05-25 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
| 2026-05-26 | $3.0 | $2.87 | $3.13 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.02% for the next trading day (2026-05-22), reaching $2.99.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-22 and 2026-05-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Market conditions are currently neutral, with a Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and resistance at 3.11. The fundamental balance indicates a slight bearish shift with a change of -9.10 BCFD. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast suggests a downward trend of 1.02% with a range of 2.86 to 3.12. Short-term opportunities may arise around the support level, but risks remain elevated given the current market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of -1.52 BCFD as a signal for potential adjustments in production levels. The neutral market sentiment may not necessitate immediate changes, but the weather outlook indicates low heating demand in the residential and commercial sectors, which could affect sales. Producers might want to evaluate their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and price volatility in the near future.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the weather outlook suggests moderate cooling demand, particularly in the South and West regions. With the fundamental balance showing a slight bearish trend, there may be implications for supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider proactive procurement strategies and possibly hedge against price increases, especially given the recent news sentiment indicating a slight uptick in demand due to warmer weather.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture is characterized by a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of -1.52 BCFD, indicating a slight bearish trend. The weather outlook shows a predominance of cooling demand, particularly in warmer regions, which could support short-term price stability. However, the ML price forecast reflects a potential downward shift, suggesting analysts should closely monitor market developments and adjust forecasts accordingly, particularly in light of fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.