The gas market is doing something the headline price at $3.02 completely fails to communicate: it is getting structurally tighter every single day, and the storage surplus the bears keep pointing to is being quietly eaten alive. Production has flatlined at 106.6 Bcf/d — up just 0.1 Bcf/d year-over-year, which rounds to zero — while demand has broken out in three directions simultaneously. Power burn hit 39.4 Bcf/d on Wednesday, a number that is 10.7 Bcf/d above the same day last year, and even after stripping out the week's above-normal temperatures the structural demand increase is 1.8 Bcf/d — meaning real, baseline, weather-independent consumption of gas-fired power is growing. LNG exports are running 1.6 Bcf/d above last year at 17.0 Bcf/d despite seasonal maintenance pulling flows down from April's record 18.8 Bcf/d, and three US LNG cargoes are reportedly heading to China in June for the first time since February 2025. The net result is a daily supply/demand imbalance running 7.4 Bcf/d tight versus the 5-year average — the most consistent tightening streak of the injection season — which means the 6.5% storage surplus the market is discounting is on a clock. Today's EIA storage report is the first real test: a print under 90 Bcf confirms the tightening is real and $3.449 becomes a math problem, not a forecast; a print over 100 Bcf hands the bears a week and $2.76 comes back into the conversation. The global backdrop only adds pressure — Europe is 37% full against a 50% seasonal average, Ras Laffan is running at 17% reduced capacity with a 3 to 5 year repair timeline, and the Hormuz closure has made the US the incremental LNG supplier for two continents. At $3.02, the market is pricing the inventory number. It has not priced the trajectory. Nat Gas ended the week just below the key support/resistance level of 2.924.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-24 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently at $3.02, but the underlying market dynamics tell a different story. Production has stagnated at 106.6 Bcf/d, while demand is surging, driven by a 10.7 Bcf/d increase in power burn compared to last year. The supply/demand imbalance is tightening, with a daily deficit of 7.4 Bcf/d versus the 5-year average. The upcoming EIA storage report will be crucial; a print under 90 Bcf could signal a significant shift, while a figure over 100 Bcf might embolden bears. Keep an eye on global factors as well, particularly Europe’s low storage levels.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand increased by 10.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.98
MA(20): $2.86
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 2.98, 20 day MA 2.86
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0616
Signal: 0.0406
Days since crossover: 26
MACD crossed the line 26 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.97
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,984
Avg (20d): 122,044
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 74.68
%D: 66.23
Stochastic %K: 74.68, %D: 66.23. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.46
+DI: 22.69
-DI: 14.07
ADX: 23.46 (+DI: 22.69, -DI: 14.07). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -25.32
Williams %R: -25.32 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.13
Middle: 2.86
Lower: 2.59
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.13, Middle: 2.86, Lower: 2.59
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.6 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.5 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.8 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 20.9 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 12.03 |
| LNG Exports | 17.4 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.67 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.63 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 113.42 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 94.13 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.52 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
26.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
14.0 HDD
-11.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
36.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
35.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/17 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/18 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/25 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/29 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/16 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/17 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/18 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/20 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/21 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/22 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/26 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/29 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.03
Daily:
-0.29 (-0.3%)
Weekly:
-0.28 (-0.28%)
US_10Y
4.56
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.41%)
SP500
7473.47
Daily:
27.75 (0.37%)
Weekly:
70.42 (0.95%)
VIX
16.7
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.36%)
Weekly:
-1.12 (-6.29%)
GOLD
4523.2
Daily:
2.2 (0.05%)
Weekly:
16.9 (0.38%)
COPPER
6.38
Daily:
0.04 (0.58%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.47%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,599,429
Change: -28,850
Managed Money
-96,303
Change: +23,762
-6.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,268
Change: +6,056
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
194,492
Change: +8,925
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-95,893
Change: -39,652
-6.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.299 EUR/MWh (-0.054). JKM prices decreased to 18.810 USD/MMBtu (-0.110). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.511 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.299
-0.054Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-24
JKM Prices
18.810
-0.110Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-24
JKM-TTF Spread
2.511
15.41%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.4
15.4
13.4
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.299 |
| JUL 26 | 16.617 |
| AUG 26 | 16.588 |
| SEP 26 | 16.582 |
| OCT 26 | 16.517 |
| NOV 26 | 16.249 |
| DEC 26 | 16.174 |
| JAN 27 | 16.068 |
| FEB 27 | 15.838 |
| MAR 27 | 15.186 |
| APR 27 | 12.822 |
| MAY 27 | 11.999 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.810 |
| AUG 26 | 18.370 |
| SEP 26 | 17.980 |
| OCT 26 | 17.485 |
| NOV 26 | 17.150 |
| DEC 26 | 16.870 |
| JAN 27 | 16.445 |
| FEB 27 | 15.405 |
| MAR 27 | 14.600 |
| APR 27 | 12.265 |
| MAY 27 | 12.505 |
| JUN 27 | 12.575 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-24 to 2026-05-23
Latest LNG Flow
17.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.2%)
30-Day Average
17.32
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.70
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 16.60 | N/A |
| 2026-05-15 | 16.70 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
49
Last Updated:
2026-05-24 23:47:13
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.99
0.99% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
2.98% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.91
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-24 23:47:14
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.61%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | $2.92 | $2.79 | $3.06 |
| 2026-05-24 | $2.9 | $2.77 | $3.04 |
| 2026-05-25 | $2.92 | $2.79 | $3.06 |
| 2026-05-26 | $2.92 | $2.78 | $3.06 |
| 2026-05-27 | $2.93 | $2.79 | $3.07 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.61% for the next trading day (2026-05-23), reaching $2.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-23 and 2026-05-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data suggests a neutral outlook, with technical indicators showing a support level at 2.99 and a resistance level at 3.11. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.61%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities within the range of 2.79 to 3.06. However, the risk of volatility remains due to the overall neutral sentiment and the fluctuations in demand across regions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of -1.52 BCFD, indicating a slight oversupply which could pressure prices. The neutral market sentiment may not favor aggressive production increases at this time. Hedging strategies should account for the current price range and the potential for market volatility. Additionally, the regional demand patterns suggest a need to align production with areas experiencing higher heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the neutral sentiment and mixed demand across regions. The low heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors may offer opportunities for procurement at lower prices. However, the weather outlook indicates moderate cooling demand, particularly in the South and West, which may impact supply reliability. It is advisable to monitor price movements closely to optimize procurement strategies.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market analysis reveals a complex picture with neutral sentiment prevailing and a fundamental balance suggesting slight oversupply. The technical indicators show critical support and resistance levels that traders should monitor closely. The mixed weather outlook, with a dominant cooling demand in certain regions, adds another layer of complexity. Analysts should focus on regional demand patterns and geopolitical factors that could shift market dynamics in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.