Henry Hub is sitting at $3.08 and the bears will tell you the 6.5% storage surplus and a cool front rolling through the eastern US from May 31 to June 4 are the story — and they are not wrong, just not right for long. The actual story is that the US natural gas market is being asked to do something it has never done before: be the swing supplier for Europe and Asia simultaneously, indefinitely, because Qatar blew up 17% of its own LNG export capacity in March and the repair timeline runs three to five years minimum, with GE Vernova and Siemens Energy already quoting two-to-four-year lead times on the turbines needed to rebuild it. LNG feedgas flows hit 18.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday — up 8.8% week over week as facilities returned from maintenance — while Europe sits 14 percentage points below its seasonal storage average with no Persian Gulf backstop. The storage surplus everyone is bearish about is running down at roughly 52 Bcf per week of under-injection versus the five-year average, which means mathematically it is gone in about three weeks without a single degree of summer heat. When the NOAA Omega block ridge that's been stacking up over the north-central US expands into the south-central around June 1, power burn goes from the current 39.4 Bcf/d back toward the NGSA's record 40.3 Bcf/d summer forecast — and at that point the cold front everyone sold this week will look like the entry point they wish they had taken.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-27 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently experiencing volatility, sitting at $3.08, driven by a 6.5% storage surplus and upcoming cool weather. However, the true narrative is the U.S. becoming the swing supplier for Europe and Asia, as Qatar's LNG export capacity has been severely disrupted. With LNG feedgas flows recently hitting 18.4 Bcf/d, the market's dynamics are shifting. Power burn is expected to rise as warmer weather approaches, potentially tightening supply. Keep an eye on storage levels and weather forecasts for future price movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.08
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.99
MA(20): $2.88
Current Price is 3.08, 9 day MA 2.99, 20 day MA 2.88
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0607
Signal: 0.043
Days since crossover: 27
MACD crossed the line 27 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.83
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,249
Avg (20d): 119,162
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 88.31
%D: 61.83
Stochastic %K: 88.31, %D: 61.83. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.29
+DI: 24.73
-DI: 13.97
ADX: 23.29 (+DI: 24.73, -DI: 13.97). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -11.69
Williams %R: -11.69 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.12
Middle: 2.88
Lower: 2.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.12, Middle: 2.88, Lower: 2.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
28.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
12.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
31.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
33.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/19 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/29 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/31 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/19 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/20 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/21 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/22 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/23 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/27 | 7.0 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/01 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/02 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.48
Daily:
0.31 (0.31%)
Weekly:
0.37 (0.37%)
US_10Y
4.48
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-1.99%)
SP500
7520.36
Daily:
1.24 (0.02%)
Weekly:
87.39 (1.18%)
VIX
16.29
Daily:
-0.72 (-4.23%)
Weekly:
-0.47 (-2.8%)
GOLD
4405.6
Daily:
-94.8 (-2.11%)
Weekly:
-125.7 (-2.77%)
COPPER
6.27
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.47%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.37%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,599,429
Change: -28,850
Managed Money
-96,303
Change: +23,762
-6.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,268
Change: +6,056
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
194,492
Change: +8,925
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-95,893
Change: -39,652
-6.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.194 EUR/MWh (-0.105). JKM prices decreased to 18.425 USD/MMBtu (-0.385). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.231 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.194
-0.105Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-27
JKM Prices
18.425
-0.385Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-27
JKM-TTF Spread
2.231
13.78%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.1
17.1
15.2
13.2
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.194 |
| JUL 26 | 16.241 |
| AUG 26 | 16.223 |
| SEP 26 | 16.215 |
| OCT 26 | 16.166 |
| NOV 26 | 15.870 |
| DEC 26 | 15.797 |
| JAN 27 | 15.697 |
| FEB 27 | 15.452 |
| MAR 27 | 14.821 |
| APR 27 | 12.642 |
| MAY 27 | 11.908 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.425 |
| AUG 26 | 17.830 |
| SEP 26 | 17.460 |
| OCT 26 | 17.195 |
| NOV 26 | 16.860 |
| DEC 26 | 16.760 |
| JAN 27 | 16.230 |
| FEB 27 | 15.170 |
| MAR 27 | 14.200 |
| APR 27 | 12.210 |
| MAY 27 | 12.500 |
| JUN 27 | 12.545 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-27 to 2026-05-26
Latest LNG Flow
17.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
17.19
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 16.90 | N/A |
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.55
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
77
Last Updated:
2026-05-27 23:48:12
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.08
Closest Support:
$2.99
2.92% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.11
0.97% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
Support
0.618
$3.11
Resistance
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.04
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-27 23:48:12
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.4%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | $3.03 | $2.88 | $3.17 |
| 2026-05-29 | $3.06 | $2.91 | $3.2 |
| 2026-05-30 | $3.04 | $2.89 | $3.18 |
| 2026-05-31 | $3.04 | $2.9 | $3.19 |
| 2026-06-01 | $3.03 | $2.89 | $3.17 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.40% for the next trading day (2026-05-28), reaching $3.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-28 and 2026-06-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Given the neutral technical interpretation with a score of 0/5, traders should remain cautious. The Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and resistance at 3.11 indicate potential price boundaries. The ML price forecast suggests a slight downward trend of 0.40%, with a range between 2.88 and 3.17, which could present short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices test these levels. However, the overall bearish market sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.650, indicates caution is warranted as volatility may increase.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of 0.48 BCFD with a change of +2.00 suggests a stable supply-demand scenario, albeit with a slight increase in supply. Producers may want to consider adjusting their production planning to align with the cooling demand forecast, particularly in the South and West regions where CDD values are significantly higher. The prevailing bearish sentiment in the market may impact pricing strategies, necessitating effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected due to the cooling dominated weather outlook, consumers can anticipate stable supply conditions. However, the bearish sentiment reflected in the market may lead to cost fluctuations in the near term. It's advisable for consumers to monitor the fundamental balance and consider strategies for procurement or hedging against potential price increases, especially if the cooling demand persists and influences pricing in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture is influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment and a neutral technical outlook. The fundamental balance indicates stability, yet the cooling demand across all regions may drive short-term price fluctuations. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend and assess how ongoing weather patterns could shift market dynamics. Identifying the strongest driving factors, including regional demand variations and sentiment shifts, will be crucial for providing actionable insights moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.