Henry Hub is sitting at $3.08 and the bears will tell you the 6.5% storage surplus and a cool front rolling through the eastern US from May 31 to June 4 are the story — and they are not wrong, just not right for long. The actual story is that the US natural gas market is being asked to do something it has never done before: be the swing supplier for Europe and Asia simultaneously, indefinitely, because Qatar blew up 17% of its own LNG export capacity in March and the repair timeline runs three to five years minimum, with GE Vernova and Siemens Energy already quoting two-to-four-year lead times on the turbines needed to rebuild it. LNG feedgas flows hit 18.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday — up 8.8% week over week as facilities returned from maintenance — while Europe sits 14 percentage points below its seasonal storage average with no Persian Gulf backstop. The storage surplus everyone is bearish about is running down at roughly 52 Bcf per week of under-injection versus the five-year average, which means mathematically it is gone in about three weeks without a single degree of summer heat. When the NOAA Omega block ridge that's been stacking up over the north-central US expands into the south-central around June 1, power burn goes from the current 39.4 Bcf/d back toward the NGSA's record 40.3 Bcf/d summer forecast — and at that point the cold front everyone sold this week will look like the entry point they wish they had taken.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-28 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices at Henry Hub are currently at $3.08, fueled by a unique market demand as the U.S. steps up as a swing supplier for Europe and Asia amid global supply constraints—particularly after Qatar's LNG export capacity was crippled. Despite a 6.5% storage surplus and cooler weather, strong LNG feedgas flows (18.4 Bcf/d) and impending heat waves could tighten the supply further. Watch for shifts in demand as power burn increases, potentially driving prices higher as summer kicks in. The market is one to keep an eye on!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.3
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $2.91
Current Price is 3.3, 9 day MA 3.03, 20 day MA 2.91
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0815
Signal: 0.0501
Days since crossover: 28
MACD crossed the line 28 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 68.29
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 68.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,298
Avg (20d): 123,720
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 92.9
%D: 72.96
Stochastic %K: 92.9, %D: 72.96. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.81
+DI: 33.64
-DI: 11.87
ADX: 24.81 (+DI: 33.64, -DI: 11.87). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -7.1
Williams %R: -7.1 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 3.19
Middle: 2.91
Lower: 2.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.19, Middle: 2.91, Lower: 2.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
27.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
28.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
33.0 CDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/20 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/21 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/28 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/29 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/31 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/20 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/21 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/22 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/23 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.08
Daily:
-0.13 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.58%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
7563.63
Daily:
43.27 (0.58%)
Weekly:
117.91 (1.58%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
-0.55 (-3.38%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-5.75%)
GOLD
4527.1
Daily:
79.6 (1.79%)
Weekly:
-12.7 (-0.28%)
COPPER
6.41
Daily:
0.11 (1.74%)
Weekly:
0.16 (2.53%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,599,429
Change: -28,850
Managed Money
-96,303
Change: +23,762
-6.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,268
Change: +6,056
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
194,492
Change: +8,925
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-95,893
Change: -39,652
-6.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-19
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.160 EUR/MWh (-0.034). JKM prices decreased to 18.235 USD/MMBtu (-0.190). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.075 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.160
-0.034Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-28
JKM Prices
18.235
-0.190Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-28
JKM-TTF Spread
2.075
12.84%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-28
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.9
17.0
15.1
13.2
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.160 |
| JUL 26 | 15.896 |
| AUG 26 | 15.903 |
| SEP 26 | 15.916 |
| OCT 26 | 15.861 |
| NOV 26 | 15.592 |
| DEC 26 | 15.524 |
| JAN 27 | 15.424 |
| FEB 27 | 15.197 |
| MAR 27 | 14.637 |
| APR 27 | 12.606 |
| MAY 27 | 11.899 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.235 |
| AUG 26 | 17.390 |
| SEP 26 | 17.010 |
| OCT 26 | 16.675 |
| NOV 26 | 16.310 |
| DEC 26 | 16.220 |
| JAN 27 | 15.770 |
| FEB 27 | 14.785 |
| MAR 27 | 13.830 |
| APR 27 | 12.120 |
| MAY 27 | 12.415 |
| JUN 27 | 12.455 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-28 to 2026-05-27
Latest LNG Flow
17.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.15
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 17.00 | N/A |
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.05
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
100
Last Updated:
2026-05-28 23:47:38
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.3
Closest Support:
$3.28
0.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.49
5.76% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
Support
1.0
$3.49
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.29
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-28 23:47:39
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.23%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $3.29 | $3.13 | $3.46 |
| 2026-05-30 | $3.31 | $3.15 | $3.48 |
| 2026-05-31 | $3.28 | $3.12 | $3.45 |
| 2026-06-01 | $3.28 | $3.11 | $3.44 |
| 2026-06-02 | $3.26 | $3.09 | $3.43 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2026-05-29), reaching $3.29.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a Fibonacci support level at 3.28 and resistance at 3.49. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.23%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating caution is warranted. Traders should be vigilant for volatility around these levels as market dynamics evolve.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 0.48 BCFD, with a slight increase of +2.00, indicating stable demand conditions. Producers should consider this when planning production levels. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests cautious optimism, yet the mixed news sentiment regarding crude oil may affect hedging strategies. The focus should be on maintaining flexibility in operations to adapt to potential shifts in demand forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating moderate cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The neutral market sentiment coupled with a fundamental balance of 0.48 BCFD suggests a stable supply environment, reducing immediate supply reliability risks. However, consumers should remain vigilant about price movements within the forecasted range of 3.13 to 3.46 as weather patterns evolve.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with a balance of 0.48 BCFD indicating stable supply-demand dynamics. The cooling demand observed across various regions, particularly in the South and West, is a significant driver for natural gas prices. The upcoming ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trajectory, but analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and sentiment shifts that could impact market stability.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.