Henry Hub is sitting at $3.08 and the bears will tell you the 6.5% storage surplus and a cool front rolling through the eastern US from May 31 to June 4 are the story — and they are not wrong, just not right for long. The actual story is that the US natural gas market is being asked to do something it has never done before: be the swing supplier for Europe and Asia simultaneously, indefinitely, because Qatar blew up 17% of its own LNG export capacity in March and the repair timeline runs three to five years minimum, with GE Vernova and Siemens Energy already quoting two-to-four-year lead times on the turbines needed to rebuild it. LNG feedgas flows hit 18.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday — up 8.8% week over week as facilities returned from maintenance — while Europe sits 14 percentage points below its seasonal storage average with no Persian Gulf backstop. The storage surplus everyone is bearish about is running down at roughly 52 Bcf per week of under-injection versus the five-year average, which means mathematically it is gone in about three weeks without a single degree of summer heat. When the NOAA Omega block ridge that's been stacking up over the north-central US expands into the south-central around June 1, power burn goes from the current 39.4 Bcf/d back toward the NGSA's record 40.3 Bcf/d summer forecast — and at that point the cold front everyone sold this week will look like the entry point they wish they had taken.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-29 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently at $3.08, driven by a unique supply-demand dynamic as the U.S. emerges as a swing supplier for Europe and Asia. A 6.5% storage surplus and a cool front might suggest bearish sentiment, but the real story is the tightening supply due to Qatar's LNG export disruptions. With LNG feedgas flows rising and forecasts of above-average temperatures, the market could shift. Power burn is expected to increase, potentially leading to a surge in demand in the coming weeks. Keep your eyes peeled!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.27
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.06
MA(20): $2.94
Current Price is 3.27, 9 day MA 3.06, 20 day MA 2.94
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0969
Signal: 0.0593
Days since crossover: 29
MACD crossed the line 29 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 67.15
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 67.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 151,828
Avg (20d): 132,541
Ratio: 1.15
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 81.95
%D: 85.69
Stochastic %K: 81.95, %D: 85.69. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.53
+DI: 34.73
-DI: 11.36
ADX: 26.53 (+DI: 34.73, -DI: 11.36). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.05
Williams %R: -18.05 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 3.24
Middle: 2.94
Lower: 2.63
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.24, Middle: 2.94, Lower: 2.63
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
25.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
28.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
35.0 CDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/21 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/22 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/23 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/29 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/21 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/22 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/23 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/29 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.94
Daily:
-0.08 (-0.08%)
Weekly:
-0.38 (-0.38%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.3%)
SP500
7580.06
Daily:
16.43 (0.22%)
Weekly:
106.59 (1.43%)
VIX
15.32
Daily:
-0.42 (-2.67%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-7.66%)
GOLD
4569.9
Daily:
70.6 (1.57%)
Weekly:
48.9 (1.08%)
COPPER
6.39
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.82%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.170 EUR/MWh (+0.010). JKM prices increased to 18.335 USD/MMBtu (+0.100). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.165 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.170
+0.010Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-29
JKM Prices
18.335
+0.100Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-29
JKM-TTF Spread
2.165
13.39%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-29
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.0
17.0
15.1
13.2
11.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.170 |
| JUL 26 | 16.053 |
| AUG 26 | 16.067 |
| SEP 26 | 16.081 |
| OCT 26 | 16.033 |
| NOV 26 | 15.730 |
| DEC 26 | 15.659 |
| JAN 27 | 15.543 |
| FEB 27 | 15.296 |
| MAR 27 | 14.692 |
| APR 27 | 12.614 |
| MAY 27 | 11.887 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.335 |
| AUG 26 | 17.570 |
| SEP 26 | 17.110 |
| OCT 26 | 16.765 |
| NOV 26 | 16.405 |
| DEC 26 | 16.300 |
| JAN 27 | 15.820 |
| FEB 27 | 14.810 |
| MAR 27 | 13.850 |
| APR 27 | 12.065 |
| MAY 27 | 12.395 |
| JUN 27 | 12.440 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-29 to 2026-05-28
Latest LNG Flow
17.50
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.12
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 17.00 | N/A |
| 2026-05-19 | 14.60 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | +2.40 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
104
Last Updated:
2026-05-29 23:47:23
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
- RECAP: PRES TRUMP'S REMARKS AT CABINET MEETING CAST DOUBT ON ANY IMPENDING IRAN DEAL; REPEATS MAXIMUM DEMANDS WITHOUT HINTS OF ANY US CONCESSIONS Mace News
- US natural gas futures hover near one-week low as demand outlook slips Reuters
- US natural gas futures rise 2% on higher demand forecasts Reuters
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.27
Closest Support:
$3.11
4.89% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.28
0.31% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
Support
0.786
$3.28
Resistance
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.29
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-29 23:47:23
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.23%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $3.29 | $3.13 | $3.46 |
| 2026-05-30 | $3.31 | $3.15 | $3.48 |
| 2026-05-31 | $3.28 | $3.12 | $3.45 |
| 2026-06-01 | $3.28 | $3.11 | $3.44 |
| 2026-06-02 | $3.26 | $3.09 | $3.43 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2026-05-29), reaching $3.29.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators show a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.11 and resistance at 3.28. The ML price forecast for the next day indicates a potential increase of 0.23%, suggesting a range between 3.13 and 3.46. Traders should be aware of the bearish sentiment reflected in the overall market sentiment score of -0.200, which may introduce volatility. Focus on short-term trading opportunities around the support and resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 0.48 BCFD, reflecting a slight increase of 2.00. This indicates a stable supply relative to demand, which may allow producers to maintain steady production levels. However, the bearish market sentiment could influence pricing strategies and necessitate effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Producers should also monitor the cooling demand forecast, as low heating demand could impact seasonal production plans.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating low heating demand and cooling demand expected to dominate, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current market sentiment is bearish, which may lead to lower prices in the short term; however, it is essential to remain vigilant about supply reliability risks. Consumers may want to consider hedging options to protect against price volatility as market conditions evolve.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.200. The fundamental balance at 0.48 BCFD indicates a slight oversupply, while the weather outlook points to increased cooling demand across multiple regions. These factors suggest a cautious approach towards market outlook shifts, particularly as the ML price forecast shows potential for a modest increase. Analysts should remain focused on the interplay between demand forecasts and geopolitical developments that may affect overall market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.