Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-31 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have climbed to a 16-week high, reaching around $3.30, as traders shift their outlook amid forecasts of above-average temperatures increasing demand. This rally, with a 19% gain in May, is drawing closer to the implied fair value of $3.449. While there's optimism for prices above $4, analysts suggest a flattening around $3.50, given that current demand aligns with historical averages. Key to watch is how summer demand unfolds, as it could significantly impact price trajectories.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.36
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $2.97
Current Price is 3.36, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 2.97
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1166
Signal: 0.071
Days since crossover: 30
MACD crossed the line 30 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 70.21
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 70.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,374
Avg (20d): 129,725
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.25
%D: 92.06
Stochastic %K: 95.25, %D: 92.06. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.25
+DI: 33.11
-DI: 10.83
ADX: 28.25 (+DI: 33.11, -DI: 10.83). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.75
Williams %R: -4.75 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 3.32
Middle: 2.97
Lower: 2.61
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.32, Middle: 2.97, Lower: 2.61
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
21.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
32.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
40.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/23 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/31 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/23 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/31 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.06
Daily:
0.14 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-0.12%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.3%)
SP500
7580.06
Daily:
16.43 (0.22%)
Weekly:
106.59 (1.43%)
VIX
15.32
Daily:
-0.42 (-2.67%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-7.66%)
GOLD
4551.0
Daily:
-9.5 (-0.21%)
Weekly:
50.6 (1.12%)
COPPER
6.45
Daily:
0.09 (1.41%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.38%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 16.170 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 18.300 USD/MMBtu (-0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.130 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.170
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-31
JKM Prices
18.300
-0.035Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-05-31
JKM-TTF Spread
2.130
13.17%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-31
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.170 |
| JUL 26 | 15.751 |
| AUG 26 | 15.765 |
| SEP 26 | 15.766 |
| OCT 26 | 15.701 |
| NOV 26 | 15.419 |
| DEC 26 | 15.365 |
| JAN 27 | 15.253 |
| FEB 27 | 15.017 |
| MAR 27 | 14.407 |
| APR 27 | 12.409 |
| MAY 27 | 11.706 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.300 |
| AUG 26 | 17.300 |
| SEP 26 | 16.840 |
| OCT 26 | 16.495 |
| NOV 26 | 16.135 |
| DEC 26 | 16.030 |
| JAN 27 | 15.550 |
| FEB 27 | 14.540 |
| MAR 27 | 13.580 |
| APR 27 | 11.795 |
| MAY 27 | 12.125 |
| JUN 27 | 12.170 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-01 to 2026-05-30
Latest LNG Flow
17.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.09
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 17.00 | N/A |
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | +0.40 |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
52
Last Updated:
2026-05-31 23:47:21
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.36
Closest Support:
$3.28
2.38% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.49
3.87% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
Support
1.0
$3.49
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.29
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-31 23:47:21
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.62%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | $3.31 | $3.14 | $3.48 |
| 2026-05-31 | $3.28 | $3.11 | $3.45 |
| 2026-06-01 | $3.27 | $3.11 | $3.44 |
| 2026-06-02 | $3.26 | $3.09 | $3.42 |
| 2026-06-03 | $3.26 | $3.09 | $3.43 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.62% for the next trading day (2026-05-30), reaching $3.31.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.5% between 2026-05-30 and 2026-06-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook, with a Fibonacci support level at 3.28 and resistance at 3.49. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.62%, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment. Traders should monitor price movements closely, particularly around the Fibonacci levels, as they may indicate potential volatility. The overall market sentiment is positive, but caution is advised due to the neutral technical score which implies limited immediate momentum.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 0.48 BCFD with a slight increase of +2.00, indicating a stable supply-demand dynamic. Producers should consider this stability when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The positive news sentiment surrounding crude oil could provide opportunities for strategic pricing adjustments. However, the cooling demand forecast across several regions suggests that producers should remain vigilant about potential shifts in demand that could affect their operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may lead to stable pricing in the short term. Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment is currently bullish, particularly for crude oil. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by recent news and a slight positive shift in the fundamental balance. The cooling demand forecast across most regions suggests a moderate uptick in consumption, yet the technical indicators present a mixed picture. Analysts should focus on the interplay between the technical resistance levels and the evolving supply-demand dynamics to assess potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.