Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently hovered around $3.30, inching closer to the implied fair value of $3.449. Despite earlier gains, cooler forecasts have led to a 3% dip in futures, raising questions about summer demand—currently aligned with historical averages. While some traders predict a rise above $4, a flattening around $3.50 seems more likely. European markets show mixed signals, with prices easing and increasing volatility. Keep an eye on demand trends and weather forecasts as we navigate this dynamic landscape!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.08
MA(20): $2.96
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 3.08, 20 day MA 2.96
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1029
Signal: 0.0683
Days since crossover: 30
MACD crossed the line 30 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 61.64
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 61.64 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,366
Avg (20d): 127,876
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 66.1
%D: 82.35
Stochastic %K: 66.1, %D: 82.35. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 27.1
+DI: 32.6
-DI: 15.87
ADX: 27.1 (+DI: 32.6, -DI: 15.87). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -33.9
Williams %R: -33.9 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 2.96
Lower: 2.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 2.96, Lower: 2.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
34.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/05 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/06 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.19
Daily:
0.28 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.02%)
US_10Y
4.47
Daily:
0.02 (0.49%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.4%)
SP500
7599.96
Daily:
19.9 (0.26%)
Weekly:
80.84 (1.08%)
VIX
16.05
Daily:
0.73 (4.77%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-5.64%)
GOLD
4528.3
Daily:
-32.2 (-0.71%)
Weekly:
27.9 (0.62%)
COPPER
6.57
Daily:
0.21 (3.28%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.25%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 16.170 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 18.300 USD/MMBtu (-0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.130 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.170
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-06-01
JKM Prices
18.300
-0.035Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-01
JKM-TTF Spread
2.130
13.17%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.170 |
| JUL 26 | 15.751 |
| AUG 26 | 15.765 |
| SEP 26 | 15.766 |
| OCT 26 | 15.701 |
| NOV 26 | 15.419 |
| DEC 26 | 15.365 |
| JAN 27 | 15.253 |
| FEB 27 | 15.017 |
| MAR 27 | 14.407 |
| APR 27 | 12.409 |
| MAY 27 | 11.706 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.300 |
| AUG 26 | 17.300 |
| SEP 26 | 16.840 |
| OCT 26 | 16.495 |
| NOV 26 | 16.135 |
| DEC 26 | 16.030 |
| JAN 27 | 15.550 |
| FEB 27 | 14.540 |
| MAR 27 | 13.580 |
| APR 27 | 11.795 |
| MAY 27 | 12.125 |
| JUN 27 | 12.170 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-02 to 2026-05-31
Latest LNG Flow
17.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
17.06
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | 17.40 | N/A |
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
51
Last Updated:
2026-06-01 23:47:36
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$3.11
2.51% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.28
2.82% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
Support
0.786
$3.28
Resistance
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.18
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-01 23:47:37
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.59%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | $3.16 | $2.99 | $3.33 |
| 2026-06-03 | $3.13 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-04 | $3.13 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-05 | $3.13 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-06 | $3.14 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.59% for the next trading day (2026-06-02), reaching $3.16.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-02 and 2026-06-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions are neutral with a technical score of 0/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.11 and resistance at 3.28, indicating limited volatility in the near term.
With a bearish overall market sentiment score of -0.200 and a ML price forecast indicating a potential decline of 0.59%, traders should be cautious of short-term opportunities, particularly around the support level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 0.48 BCFD, with a change of +2.00, suggesting a slight increase in supply. This could influence production planning as demand remains low for heating but moderate for cooling.
Given the bearish market sentiment and potential price declines, producers may need to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure operational stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With overall cooling demand dominating across all regions, particularly in the South and West, consumers can expect potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The fundamental balance suggests a stable supply, but caution is advised due to the bearish sentiment impacting price forecasts.
Utilities should evaluate their procurement strategies to lock in favorable rates before any potential price increases as market conditions evolve.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, supported by a fundamental balance of 0.48 BCFD and a technical score of 0/5. The cooling demand is expected to remain high, particularly in warmer regions, while price forecasts indicate a potential decline.
Analysts should focus on the convergence of these factors, as they suggest a cautious outlook for the coming weeks, with potential shifts in market dynamics depending on weather patterns and supply adjustments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.