Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Monday cooled off and traded back down to $3.16 as no weather is really coming through.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-02 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently fluctuated, with traders beginning to acknowledge a potential bullish outlook as prices approached $3.30, nearing the implied fair value of $3.449. However, demand remains average, capping gains around $3.50. Recent articles highlight a drop in prices due to larger domestic supplies and a four-month low in LNG export flows, alongside cooler forecasts. Market sentiment suggests a cautious approach, with traders eyeing demand trends closely—watch for signs of shifts in consumption as summer progresses!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.16
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.09
MA(20): $2.97
Current Price is 3.16, 9 day MA 3.09, 20 day MA 2.97
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1029
Signal: 0.0751
Days since crossover: 31
MACD crossed the line 31 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.23
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,700
Avg (20d): 130,151
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 61.2
%D: 69.84
Stochastic %K: 61.2, %D: 69.84. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 27.4
+DI: 30.43
-DI: 15.4
ADX: 27.4 (+DI: 30.43, -DI: 15.4). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -38.8
Williams %R: -38.8 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.3
Middle: 2.97
Lower: 2.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.3, Middle: 2.97, Lower: 2.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
34.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/05 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/06 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.25
Daily:
0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.04%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.45%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.58%)
SP500
7609.78
Daily:
9.82 (0.13%)
Weekly:
89.42 (1.19%)
VIX
15.77
Daily:
-0.28 (-1.74%)
Weekly:
-0.52 (-3.19%)
GOLD
4512.4
Daily:
37.2 (0.83%)
Weekly:
64.9 (1.46%)
COPPER
6.67
Daily:
0.14 (2.18%)
Weekly:
0.36 (5.73%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 16.170 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 18.685 USD/MMBtu (+0.385). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.515 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.170
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-06-02
JKM Prices
18.685
+0.385Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-02
JKM-TTF Spread
2.515
15.55%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-02
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.3
17.4
15.4
13.4
11.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.170 |
| JUL 26 | 16.678 |
| AUG 26 | 16.733 |
| SEP 26 | 16.729 |
| OCT 26 | 16.606 |
| NOV 26 | 16.228 |
| DEC 26 | 16.139 |
| JAN 27 | 15.995 |
| FEB 27 | 15.740 |
| MAR 27 | 15.067 |
| APR 27 | 12.874 |
| MAY 27 | 12.085 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.685 |
| AUG 26 | 18.170 |
| SEP 26 | 17.615 |
| OCT 26 | 17.135 |
| NOV 26 | 16.910 |
| DEC 26 | 16.680 |
| JAN 27 | 16.075 |
| FEB 27 | 14.845 |
| MAR 27 | 13.550 |
| APR 27 | 12.375 |
| MAY 27 | 12.610 |
| JUN 27 | 12.660 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-03 to 2026-06-01
Latest LNG Flow
16.70
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.70
(-4.0%)
30-Day Average
17.03
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 17.30 | N/A |
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2026-06-02 23:47:33
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.16
Closest Support:
$3.11
1.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.28
3.8% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
0.382
$2.87
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
Support
0.786
$3.28
Resistance
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.17
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-02 23:47:33
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.89%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | $3.14 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-04 | $3.14 | $2.97 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-05 | $3.14 | $2.97 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-06 | $3.15 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-07 | $3.15 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.89% for the next trading day (2026-06-03), reaching $3.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-03 and 2026-06-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.11 while resistance is at 3.28, indicating a tight trading range.
With a fundamental balance of 0.48 BCFD and a slight increase, traders should watch for potential volatility around these levels. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.89%, suggesting caution in short-term positions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The overall market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.350. This may encourage production ramp-up, especially given the cooling demand forecast in most regions, particularly the South and West.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations, especially as the market sentiment remains strong for crude oil but neutral for natural gas.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected and a cooling demand forecast across most regions, consumers can expect stable supply but should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks. The fundamental balance suggests a slight increase in supply which may keep prices in check.
It is advisable for consumers to monitor price fluctuations closely and consider procurement strategies that account for potential cost increases in the coming days.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral technical outlook, with the Fibonacci levels indicating a tight range for trading. The bullish sentiment for crude oil contrasts with a neutral outlook for natural gas, which could indicate diverging trends in these commodities.
Key driving factors include weather impacts on demand and a fundamental balance that has slightly improved. Analysts should watch for shifts in sentiment and any emerging trends that could indicate a change in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.