Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Monday cooled off and traded back down to $3.20s as no weather is really coming through.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-03 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently climbed, reaching around $3.30, reflecting a market correction as traders recognize the underlying fundamentals are not as bearish as previously thought. Demand aligns with historical averages, and while some speculate prices could push past $4, a plateau near $3.50 seems more likely. Recent cooler weather has led to slight declines, with futures trading around $3.20. Watch for upcoming inventory data as smaller builds and hotter temperatures could stir further market activity.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 0.48 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.23
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.11
MA(20): $2.99
Current Price is 3.23, 9 day MA 3.11, 20 day MA 2.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1075
Signal: 0.0816
Days since crossover: 32
MACD crossed the line 32 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 62.76
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 62.76 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,194
Avg (20d): 131,445
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 71.74
%D: 65.72
Stochastic %K: 71.74, %D: 65.72. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.79
+DI: 28.92
-DI: 16.73
ADX: 26.79 (+DI: 28.92, -DI: 16.73). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -28.26
Williams %R: -28.26 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.33
Middle: 2.99
Lower: 2.66
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.33, Middle: 2.99, Lower: 2.66
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.5 | 106.1 | 102.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 111.0 | 111.8 | 107.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.2 | 28.1 | 33.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.1 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 11.33 |
| LNG Exports | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.67 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.27 |
| Total Demand | 110.82 | 103.42 | 98.2 | 93.6 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 0.48 | 7.58 | 13.6 | 13.77 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
34.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/05 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/06 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.48
Daily:
0.26 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.46 (0.47%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.04 (0.81%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.81%)
SP500
7553.68
Daily:
-56.1 (-0.74%)
Weekly:
-9.95 (-0.13%)
VIX
16.06
Daily:
0.29 (1.84%)
Weekly:
0.32 (2.03%)
GOLD
4493.2
Daily:
4.1 (0.09%)
Weekly:
-6.1 (-0.14%)
COPPER
6.47
Daily:
-0.18 (-2.75%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.1%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.250 EUR/MWh (-0.428). JKM prices decreased to 18.610 USD/MMBtu (-0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.360 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.250
-0.428Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-03
JKM Prices
18.610
-0.075Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-03
JKM-TTF Spread
2.360
14.52%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.3
17.2
15.2
13.1
11.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.250 |
| AUG 26 | 16.286 |
| SEP 26 | 16.299 |
| OCT 26 | 16.215 |
| NOV 26 | 15.914 |
| DEC 26 | 15.846 |
| JAN 27 | 15.700 |
| FEB 27 | 15.446 |
| MAR 27 | 14.791 |
| APR 27 | 12.691 |
| MAY 27 | 11.957 |
| JUN 27 | 11.776 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.610 |
| AUG 26 | 17.915 |
| SEP 26 | 17.405 |
| OCT 26 | 16.920 |
| NOV 26 | 16.530 |
| DEC 26 | 16.440 |
| JAN 27 | 15.930 |
| FEB 27 | 14.930 |
| MAR 27 | 13.970 |
| APR 27 | 12.545 |
| MAY 27 | 12.435 |
| JUN 27 | 12.475 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-04 to 2026-06-02
Latest LNG Flow
16.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.50
(-3.0%)
30-Day Average
16.99
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | 17.10 | N/A |
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
76
Last Updated:
2026-06-03 23:47:14
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher; Trump Seeks to Quell Israel-Hezbollah Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.23
Closest Support:
$3.2
0.93% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
5.26% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.21
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-03 23:47:14
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-05 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-06 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-07 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-08 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2026-06-04), reaching $3.21.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-04 and 2026-06-08.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.2, while resistance is identified at 3.4. This indicates a potential range-bound market in the short term.
The ML forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.16%, signaling potential short-term volatility. Traders should monitor these levels closely for breakout opportunities or risks if the price approaches the support or resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 0.48 BCFD with a slight increase of +2.00, indicating a stable supply-demand dynamic. Producers should consider this when planning production levels to avoid oversupply.
With the market sentiment being bullish overall, there may be opportunities for hedging strategies to lock in favorable prices, especially given the geopolitical factors influencing crude oil prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, particularly in regions with high cooling degree days (e.g., South: 12.0, West: 16.0). This could affect overall energy costs.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to weather impacts and consider procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape shows a convergence of bullish sentiment driven by geopolitical factors and a stable fundamental balance. However, the technical indicators remain neutral, suggesting caution in the short term.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between the weather outlook and the ML price forecasts to identify shifts in market dynamics that may influence future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.