Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Monday cooled off and traded back down to $3.20s as no weather is really coming through. Thursday brought less of an injection than what traders modeled - bringing us to 3.342.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-04 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have been on an upward trajectory, reaching a four-month high as hot weather and lower-than-expected storage builds drive demand. Trading around $3.34, market participants are cautiously optimistic, with many eyeing a potential rise to $4. However, current demand is in line with historical averages, suggesting a ceiling near $3.50. Weather forecasts play a crucial role in this market, as cooler temperatures recently prompted a dip back to the $3.20s. Keep an eye on inventory reports and temperature forecasts for further direction!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.35
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.15
MA(20): $3.02
Current Price is 3.35, 9 day MA 3.15, 20 day MA 3.02
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.119
Signal: 0.0889
Days since crossover: 33
MACD crossed the line 33 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 67.21
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 67.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,068
Avg (20d): 132,833
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 92.02
%D: 74.43
Stochastic %K: 92.02, %D: 74.43. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 27.39
+DI: 31.57
-DI: 15.29
ADX: 27.39 (+DI: 31.57, -DI: 15.29). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -7.98
Williams %R: -7.98 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.37
Middle: 3.02
Lower: 2.68
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.37, Middle: 3.02, Lower: 2.68
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
20.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
34.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/26 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/27 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/25 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/26 | 5.0 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/27 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/05 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/06 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.42
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
0.51 (0.52%)
US_10Y
4.48
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.31%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.54%)
SP500
7584.31
Daily:
30.63 (0.41%)
Weekly:
4.25 (0.06%)
VIX
15.4
Daily:
-0.66 (-4.11%)
Weekly:
0.08 (0.52%)
GOLD
4466.0
Daily:
29.3 (0.66%)
Weekly:
-94.5 (-2.07%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.8%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.09%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,082
Change: +40,653
Managed Money
-134,426
Change: -38,123
-8.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,707
Change: +9,561
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
200,885
Change: +6,393
12.2% of OI
Other Reportables
-68,755
Change: +27,138
-4.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-05-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: +845
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.579 EUR/MWh (+0.329). JKM prices increased to 18.815 USD/MMBtu (+0.205). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.236 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.579
+0.329Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-04
JKM Prices
18.815
+0.205Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-04
JKM-TTF Spread
2.236
13.49%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.4
15.3
13.2
11.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.579 |
| AUG 26 | 16.659 |
| SEP 26 | 16.697 |
| OCT 26 | 16.622 |
| NOV 26 | 16.272 |
| DEC 26 | 16.200 |
| JAN 27 | 16.037 |
| FEB 27 | 15.746 |
| MAR 27 | 15.010 |
| APR 27 | 12.791 |
| MAY 27 | 11.994 |
| JUN 27 | 11.794 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.815 |
| AUG 26 | 18.665 |
| SEP 26 | 18.220 |
| OCT 26 | 17.550 |
| NOV 26 | 17.025 |
| DEC 26 | 17.130 |
| JAN 27 | 16.875 |
| FEB 27 | 16.315 |
| MAR 27 | 15.155 |
| APR 27 | 12.995 |
| MAY 27 | 12.460 |
| JUN 27 | 12.500 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-06 to 2026-06-03
Latest LNG Flow
16.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.2%)
30-Day Average
16.96
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 17.40 | N/A |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
94
Last Updated:
2026-06-04 23:47:41
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Edges Higher; Trump Seeks to Quell Israel-Hezbollah Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.35
Closest Support:
$3.2
4.48% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
1.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-04 23:47:41
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.5 |
| 2026-06-06 | $3.35 | $3.19 | $3.52 |
| 2026-06-07 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.51 |
| 2026-06-08 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.5 |
| 2026-06-09 | $3.33 | $3.16 | $3.5 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2026-06-05), reaching $3.34.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-05 and 2026-06-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.2, while resistance is at 3.4. This suggests limited price movement within this range, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the market sentiment remains neutral. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.02%, with a predicted range of 3.17 to 3.5. Traders may find short-term opportunities around these levels, but should remain vigilant about external factors influencing demand and geopolitical events.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.78 BCFD with a change of +3.30, indicating a slight oversupply situation. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The neutral sentiment towards natural gas, reflected in the -0.600 score, suggests caution in market operations. Furthermore, the high cooling demand forecast across all regions may drive short-term demand, but the bearish sentiment from lower demand forecasts could impact pricing negatively. It may be prudent to adjust production plans accordingly to align with these market dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected and a high cooling demand forecast, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The 3.78 BCFD fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, which may provide some price stability in the short term. However, the bearish sentiment in natural gas could lead to price decreases, impacting procurement strategies. Consumers may want to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and ensure supply reliability during peak demand periods.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a slight bullish outlook in crude oil driven by geopolitical factors. The key driving factors include a fundamental balance indicating oversupply in natural gas and a high cooling demand forecast across the U.S. regions. Analysts should monitor the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, particularly in light of recent headlines regarding lower demand forecasts. This combination of factors suggests potential shifts in market dynamics that could influence both short-term pricing and longer-term strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.