Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Monday cooled off and traded back down to $3.20s as no weather is really coming through. Thursday brought less of an injection than what traders modeled - bringing us to 3.342.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-05 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently fluctuated, hitting a 16-week high before retreating due to rising production and maintenance at LNG export facilities. Currently trading around $3.30, closer to its fair value of $3.449, average demand limits upside potential, with expectations of flattening around $3.50. Despite the recent dip, the market remains sensitive to weather patterns and inventory levels, which could alter the trajectory. Watch for upcoming demand changes as summer approaches and monitor supply dynamics closely!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.22
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.22, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1157
Signal: 0.0941
Days since crossover: 34
MACD crossed the line 34 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 152,937
Avg (20d): 141,796
Ratio: 1.08
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 67.35
%D: 75.26
Stochastic %K: 67.35, %D: 75.26. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.03
+DI: 29.6
-DI: 14.13
ADX: 28.03 (+DI: 29.6, -DI: 14.13). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -32.65
Williams %R: -32.65 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.71
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.71
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Mixed heating and cooling conditions)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
18.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
34.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
66.0 CDD
+20.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/28 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/31 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/28 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/29 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/06 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/09 | 9.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/10 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/11 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.07
Daily:
0.66 (0.66%)
Weekly:
0.87 (0.88%)
US_10Y
4.54
Daily:
0.06 (1.32%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.36%)
SP500
7383.74
Daily:
-200.57 (-2.64%)
Weekly:
-216.22 (-2.85%)
VIX
21.51
Daily:
6.11 (39.68%)
Weekly:
5.46 (34.02%)
GOLD
4353.9
Daily:
-121.9 (-2.72%)
Weekly:
-121.3 (-2.71%)
COPPER
6.28
Daily:
-0.24 (-3.62%)
Weekly:
-0.25 (-3.81%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,664,003
Change: +23,921
Managed Money
-114,854
Change: +19,572
-6.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-22,783
Change: -12,076
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,696
Change: -4,189
11.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,261
Change: -2,506
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: +21,385
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.565 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices decreased to 18.765 USD/MMBtu (-0.050). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.200 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.565
-0.014Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-05
JKM Prices
18.765
-0.050Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-05
JKM-TTF Spread
2.200
13.28%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-05
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.4
15.3
13.2
11.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.565 |
| AUG 26 | 16.649 |
| SEP 26 | 16.684 |
| OCT 26 | 16.618 |
| NOV 26 | 16.293 |
| DEC 26 | 16.213 |
| JAN 27 | 16.055 |
| FEB 27 | 15.758 |
| MAR 27 | 14.980 |
| APR 27 | 12.765 |
| MAY 27 | 11.966 |
| JUN 27 | 11.772 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.765 |
| AUG 26 | 18.385 |
| SEP 26 | 17.935 |
| OCT 26 | 17.395 |
| NOV 26 | 16.945 |
| DEC 26 | 16.830 |
| JAN 27 | 16.840 |
| FEB 27 | 16.280 |
| MAR 27 | 15.120 |
| APR 27 | 12.960 |
| MAY 27 | 12.425 |
| JUN 27 | 12.465 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-06 to 2026-06-04
Latest LNG Flow
16.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.40
(+2.4%)
30-Day Average
16.95
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 17.40 | N/A |
| 2026-05-27 | 17.60 | +0.20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
88
Last Updated:
2026-06-05 23:47:08
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.22
Closest Support:
$3.2
0.62% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
5.59% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-05 23:47:09
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.5 |
| 2026-06-06 | $3.35 | $3.19 | $3.52 |
| 2026-06-07 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.51 |
| 2026-06-08 | $3.34 | $3.17 | $3.5 |
| 2026-06-09 | $3.33 | $3.16 | $3.5 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2026-06-05), reaching $3.34.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-05 and 2026-06-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market analysis indicates a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.2 and resistance at 3.4, suggesting limited room for significant price movement in the short term. With the ML price forecast indicating a slight upward trend of 0.02% and a range of 3.17 to 3.5, traders should remain cautious of volatility but may find short-term opportunities around these levels. Overall, the bearish market sentiment with a score of -0.267 could act as a headwind for price increases.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.78 BCFD, reflecting a change of +3.30, which may indicate a slight oversupply in the market. Producers should consider this alongside the bearish market sentiment, particularly for natural gas, which has a sentiment score of -0.400. This could influence production planning and hedging strategies, as maintaining flexibility in operations may be necessary to adapt to fluctuating demand driven by the ongoing cooling trends across regions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating a strong cooling demand (CDD: 15.6), consumers can anticipate higher energy usage, particularly in power generation. However, the bearish sentiment in the market, especially for natural gas, might lead to potential cost fluctuations in procurement strategies. It is advisable for consumers to monitor supply reliability closely, as any shifts in market dynamics could affect pricing and availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture presents a mixed outlook. The fundamental balance shows a slight increase, while technical indicators remain neutral. The prevailing market sentiment across natural gas and crude oil suggests caution in future price forecasts. The strong cooling demand indicated by the weather outlook is countered by bearish sentiment, creating a complex environment for analysis. Professionals should focus on the interplay of these factors to gauge potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.