Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Starting off the week slightly below the key 3.247 - need to see how this plays out at the beginning of the week with a break below that key support/resistance number - 3.127 is the next support level if 3.247 is not recaptured by the bulls.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-07 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently pulled back to around $3.30, inching closer to the implied fair value of $3.449. While demand remains on par with historical averages, concerns linger about the summer's demand potential. A key support level stands at $3.247; if breached, we may see a drop to $3.127. Despite a bearish sentiment from rising output and ongoing LNG maintenance, some traders speculate prices could push past $4. Watch for fluctuations as we assess summer demand and production dynamics.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.17
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.21
MA(20): $3.07
Current Price is 3.17, 9 day MA 3.21, 20 day MA 3.07
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.1097
Signal: 0.0973
Days since crossover: 35
MACD crossed the line 35 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 56.83
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 56.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,609
Avg (20d): 137,936
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 58.44
%D: 72.11
Stochastic %K: 58.44, %D: 72.11. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.06
+DI: 28.6
-DI: 15.94
ADX: 28.06 (+DI: 28.6, -DI: 15.94). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -41.56
Williams %R: -41.56 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.07
Lower: 2.76
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.07, Lower: 2.76
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
12.0 HDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
36.0 CDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
79.0 CDD
+31.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/30 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/31 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/30 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/31 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/01 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 9.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/09 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/10 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/11 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 06/12 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 06/13 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.05
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.02%)
Weekly:
0.83 (0.83%)
US_10Y
4.54
Daily:
0.06 (1.32%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.36%)
SP500
7383.74
Daily:
-200.57 (-2.64%)
Weekly:
-216.22 (-2.85%)
VIX
21.51
Daily:
6.11 (39.68%)
Weekly:
5.46 (34.02%)
GOLD
4331.9
Daily:
-5.2 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
-157.2 (-3.5%)
COPPER
6.29
Daily:
0.03 (0.41%)
Weekly:
-0.36 (-5.42%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,664,003
Change: +23,921
Managed Money
-114,854
Change: +19,572
-6.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-22,783
Change: -12,076
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,696
Change: -4,189
11.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,261
Change: -2,506
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: +21,385
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.412 EUR/MWh (-0.153). JKM prices increased to 18.775 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.363 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.412
-0.153Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-07
JKM Prices
18.775
+0.010Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-07
JKM-TTF Spread
2.363
14.40%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.4
15.2
13.1
11.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.412 |
| AUG 26 | 16.452 |
| SEP 26 | 16.492 |
| OCT 26 | 16.434 |
| NOV 26 | 16.141 |
| DEC 26 | 16.081 |
| JAN 27 | 15.929 |
| FEB 27 | 15.644 |
| MAR 27 | 14.885 |
| APR 27 | 12.728 |
| MAY 27 | 11.919 |
| JUN 27 | 11.721 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.775 |
| AUG 26 | 18.270 |
| SEP 26 | 17.895 |
| OCT 26 | 17.345 |
| NOV 26 | 16.905 |
| DEC 26 | 16.770 |
| JAN 27 | 16.760 |
| FEB 27 | 16.200 |
| MAR 27 | 15.040 |
| APR 27 | 12.880 |
| MAY 27 | 12.345 |
| JUN 27 | 12.385 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-08 to 2026-06-06
Latest LNG Flow
16.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.2%)
30-Day Average
16.91
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 17.50 | N/A |
| 2026-05-29 | 17.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
46
Last Updated:
2026-06-07 23:47:12
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.17
Closest Support:
$3.05
3.79% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
0.95% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-07 23:47:12
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.82%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | $3.26 | $3.08 | $3.43 |
| 2026-06-07 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.4 |
| 2026-06-08 | $3.24 | $3.06 | $3.41 |
| 2026-06-09 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.4 |
| 2026-06-10 | $3.24 | $3.06 | $3.41 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.82% for the next trading day (2026-06-06), reaching $3.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-06 and 2026-06-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci levels suggest support at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.233, indicating potential downward pressure on prices despite a minor ML price forecast suggesting a slight increase of 0.82% in the next day.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a supply level of 3.78 BCFD, with a change of +3.30. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the cooling demand across most regions, particularly in the South and West. The bearish sentiment in the market could affect pricing strategies and necessitate hedging to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected due to the weather outlook, consumers may face supply reliability risks in the upcoming period. The bearish market sentiment could lead to cost fluctuations, making it essential for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage potential price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a neutral technical stance and a bearish sentiment dominating. Key driving factors include the fundamental balance of 3.78 BCFD and the cooling demand forecast, particularly in the South and West. Analysts should monitor these elements closely for potential shifts in outlook as they could influence future market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.