Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Starting off the week slightly below the key 3.247 - need to see how this plays out at the beginning of the week with a break below that key support/resistance number - 3.127 is the next support level if 3.247 is not recaptured by the bulls.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-09 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently hovering around $3.30, inching closer to the implied fair value of $3.449. Traders are cautiously optimistic, with some eyeing a potential rise above $4, although current demand aligns with historical averages, suggesting a flattening around $3.50. Recent cooler weather forecasts have pressured prices, while ongoing LNG plant maintenance has led to a one-week low. Watch for key support at $3.247; a break below may steer prices towards $3.127. Overall, the market remains reactive to weather and geopolitical headlines.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.13
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.22
MA(20): $3.08
Current Price is 3.13, 9 day MA 3.22, 20 day MA 3.08
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0985
Signal: 0.0972
Days since crossover: 36
MACD crossed the line 36 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.75
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.75 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,677
Avg (20d): 138,960
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 51.21
%D: 58.01
Stochastic %K: 51.21, %D: 58.01. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.85
+DI: 27.35
-DI: 18.46
ADX: 26.85 (+DI: 27.35, -DI: 18.46). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -48.79
Williams %R: -48.79 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.08
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.08, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
42.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
77.0 CDD
+26.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/02 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | 9.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/10 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/11 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/14 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/15 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.94
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
0.41 (0.42%)
US_10Y
4.53
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.82%)
SP500
7386.65
Daily:
-19.08 (-0.26%)
Weekly:
-167.03 (-2.21%)
VIX
19.87
Daily:
0.95 (5.02%)
Weekly:
3.81 (23.72%)
GOLD
4202.1
Daily:
-133.8 (-3.09%)
Weekly:
-234.6 (-5.29%)
COPPER
6.31
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.32%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.65%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,664,003
Change: +23,921
Managed Money
-114,854
Change: +19,572
-6.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-22,783
Change: -12,076
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,696
Change: -4,189
11.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,261
Change: -2,506
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: +21,385
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.738 EUR/MWh (+0.326). JKM prices increased to 18.895 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.157 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.738
+0.326Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-09
JKM Prices
18.895
+0.120Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-09
JKM-TTF Spread
2.157
12.89%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-09
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.5
15.3
13.2
11.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.738 |
| AUG 26 | 16.922 |
| SEP 26 | 16.976 |
| OCT 26 | 16.932 |
| NOV 26 | 16.649 |
| DEC 26 | 16.583 |
| JAN 27 | 16.420 |
| FEB 27 | 16.120 |
| MAR 27 | 15.286 |
| APR 27 | 12.896 |
| MAY 27 | 12.025 |
| JUN 27 | 11.790 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.895 |
| AUG 26 | 18.905 |
| SEP 26 | 18.515 |
| OCT 26 | 17.945 |
| NOV 26 | 17.470 |
| DEC 26 | 17.340 |
| JAN 27 | 16.670 |
| FEB 27 | 16.110 |
| MAR 27 | 14.950 |
| APR 27 | 12.790 |
| MAY 27 | 12.255 |
| JUN 27 | 12.295 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-10 to 2026-06-08
Latest LNG Flow
16.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
16.87
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 17.40 | N/A |
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
54
Last Updated:
2026-06-09 23:47:24
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.13
Closest Support:
$3.05
2.56% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
2.24% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.14
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-09 23:47:24
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.14%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | $3.14 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-11 | $3.14 | $2.96 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-12 | $3.15 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-13 | $3.15 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
| 2026-06-14 | $3.15 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2026-06-10), reaching $3.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-10 and 2026-06-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical score of 0/5, suggesting limited momentum for significant price movement. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.14%, with a range between 2.96 and 3.31. Traders should monitor for potential short-term opportunities or risks around these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance stands at 3.78 BCFD with a slight increase of +3.30, indicating a stable supply environment. The bullish sentiment in the overall market, particularly for crude oil with a sentiment score of +0.600, suggests favorable conditions for production planning. Producers should consider adjusting hedging strategies in light of these dynamics and monitor potential fluctuations in demand due to weather patterns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With cooling demand dominating across regions, particularly in the West (CDD: 26.0), consumers can expect potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The anticipated low heating demand and moderate cooling demand suggest that supply reliability remains stable, but consumers should remain vigilant about procurement strategies to mitigate any unexpected price spikes, particularly if weather patterns shift.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture presents a neutral technical outlook with no strong bullish or bearish signals. The fundamental balance is stable, and the bullish sentiment for crude oil indicates strong underlying support for prices. Analysts should focus on the weather outlook and its impact on demand, as well as the implications of recent news sentiment which could shift market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.