Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Starting off the week slightly below the key 3.247 - need to see how this plays out at the beginning of the week with a break below that key support/resistance number - 3.127 is the next support level if 3.247 is not recaptured by the bulls…this will likely creep up a bit (and should) but weather has been a bit meh to be honest.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-10 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently on an upward trajectory, recently hitting $3.30 as traders reassess demand dynamics. With the implied fair value around $3.449, expectations of reaching $4+ are tempered by average seasonal demand, suggesting a potential plateau near $3.50. Recent TTF price increases and hotter weather forecasts are fueling optimism, but a breach below $3.247 could shift sentiment—watch for this key level. Overall, natural gas appears to be stabilizing, albeit with weather playing a pivotal role.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.21
MA(20): $3.1
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 3.21, 20 day MA 3.1
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0955
Signal: 0.097
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.61
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.61 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,003
Avg (20d): 140,943
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 62.71
%D: 56.34
Stochastic %K: 62.71, %D: 56.34. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.47
+DI: 26.18
-DI: 17.27
ADX: 26.47 (+DI: 26.18, -DI: 17.27). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.29
Williams %R: -37.29 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.1
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.1, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
44.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
76.0 CDD
+24.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/11 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/14 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/15 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/16 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.96
Daily:
0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly:
0.55 (0.56%)
US_10Y
4.54
Daily:
0.01 (0.31%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.45%)
SP500
7266.99
Daily:
-119.66 (-1.62%)
Weekly:
-317.32 (-4.18%)
VIX
22.22
Daily:
2.35 (11.83%)
Weekly:
6.82 (44.29%)
GOLD
4087.0
Daily:
-173.0 (-4.06%)
Weekly:
-388.8 (-8.69%)
COPPER
6.21
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.43%)
Weekly:
-0.3 (-4.58%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,664,003
Change: +23,921
Managed Money
-114,854
Change: +19,572
-6.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-22,783
Change: -12,076
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,696
Change: -4,189
11.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,261
Change: -2,506
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: +21,385
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.505 EUR/MWh (-0.233). JKM prices decreased to 18.885 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.380 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.505
-0.233Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-10
JKM Prices
18.885
-0.010Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-10
JKM-TTF Spread
2.380
14.42%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-10
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.4
15.3
13.1
11.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.505 |
| AUG 26 | 16.576 |
| SEP 26 | 16.641 |
| OCT 26 | 16.604 |
| NOV 26 | 16.381 |
| DEC 26 | 16.333 |
| JAN 27 | 16.198 |
| FEB 27 | 15.947 |
| MAR 27 | 15.167 |
| APR 27 | 12.762 |
| MAY 27 | 11.902 |
| JUN 27 | 11.692 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.885 |
| AUG 26 | 18.600 |
| SEP 26 | 18.220 |
| OCT 26 | 17.710 |
| NOV 26 | 17.265 |
| DEC 26 | 17.165 |
| JAN 27 | 16.515 |
| FEB 27 | 15.955 |
| MAR 27 | 14.795 |
| APR 27 | 12.635 |
| MAY 27 | 12.100 |
| JUN 27 | 12.140 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-11 to 2026-06-09
Latest LNG Flow
16.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.2%)
30-Day Average
16.86
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 17.40 | N/A |
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | -0.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
81
Last Updated:
2026-06-10 23:47:22
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.4
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Could Unwind 2022 Output Cuts Eventually, But Market Dynamics Might Complicate Path — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Escalating Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
- US EIA SEES US CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT EXPORTS UP 1.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 TO AVERAGE 4.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 Mace News
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Falls on Easing War Risks and Weak China Demand Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$3.05
4.39% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
0.31% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.18
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-10 23:47:22
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.36 |
| 2026-06-12 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.37 |
| 2026-06-13 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.37 |
| 2026-06-14 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.37 |
| 2026-06-15 | $3.2 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2026-06-11), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-11 and 2026-06-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 0/5. Key Fibonacci levels are established at 3.05 (support) and 3.2 (resistance). The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.04% within a range of 3.01 to 3.36. This indicates potential short-term trading opportunities, but with a risk of volatility given the neutral sentiment and bearish overall market outlook. Traders should monitor these levels closely for breakout or reversal signals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.78 BCFD with a change of +3.30, indicating a slight increase in supply. However, the overall market sentiment remains bearish with a sentiment score of -0.200. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Additionally, the weather outlook suggests low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may influence production levels and sales strategies in the upcoming period.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a cooling-dominated weather outlook and low heating demand expected, consumers can anticipate stable supply conditions. However, the bearish market sentiment and potential fluctuations in prices could lead to cost increases. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that lock in current rates or establish hedging measures to protect against price volatility, especially given the potential for increased demand in cooling regions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current energy market is characterized by a bearish overall sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.200. The fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, while the technical indicators are neutral, suggesting limited price movement. The weather outlook is predominantly cooling-dominated, which supports moderate demand. Analysts should focus on the implications of these factors on future price trends and supply-demand dynamics, as the market appears to be at a crossroads that could shift based on upcoming weather patterns and geopolitical developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.