Traders finally started taking notice that we were not THAT bearish - Natty went to 3.30 drawing closer to the implied fair value at 3.449 - questions remain on demand for the summer as we have started out on “average” which puts a cap on how high we might go - there are some expecting $4+ - I think there will be a flattening of the curve at 3.50. Demand looks on par with historical averages - so I think we are on track for 3.50. Starting off the week slightly below the key 3.247 - need to see how this plays out at the beginning of the week with a break below that key support/resistance number - 3.127 is the next support level if 3.247 is not recaptured by the bulls…this will likely creep up a bit (and should) but weather has been a bit meh to be honest.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-11 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets bounced around as traders realized the bearish narrative might be overblown, with prices inching up to $3.30. However, demand remains tepid, putting a cap on gains, with many eyeing a potential flattening around $3.50. Recent articles highlight surging inventories and weather-related dips pushing prices to two-week lows, underscoring the delicate balance between supply and demand. As we navigate this landscape, watch for support around $3.247 and resistance at $3.50—weather and storage data will be key players in shaping the future.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.08
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.19
MA(20): $3.11
Current Price is 3.08, 9 day MA 3.19, 20 day MA 3.11
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0815
Signal: 0.0937
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.05
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.05 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,905
Avg (20d): 144,015
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 40.45
%D: 51.27
Stochastic %K: 40.45, %D: 51.27. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.18
+DI: 23.25
-DI: 17.45
ADX: 25.18 (+DI: 23.25, -DI: 17.45). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -59.55
Williams %R: -59.55 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.37
Middle: 3.11
Lower: 2.84
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.37, Middle: 3.11, Lower: 2.84
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
-12.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
70.0 CDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/09 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | 13.0 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/14 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/15 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/17 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.75
Daily:
-0.2 (-0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.46
Daily:
-0.08 (-1.74%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.61%)
SP500
7394.3
Daily:
127.31 (1.75%)
Weekly:
10.56 (0.14%)
VIX
19.44
Daily:
-2.78 (-12.51%)
Weekly:
-2.07 (-9.62%)
GOLD
4224.7
Daily:
116.5 (2.84%)
Weekly:
-112.4 (-2.59%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
0.18 (2.82%)
Weekly:
0.16 (2.59%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,664,003
Change: +23,921
Managed Money
-114,854
Change: +19,572
-6.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-22,783
Change: -12,076
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,696
Change: -4,189
11.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,261
Change: -2,506
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,025,180
Change: +21,385
Managed Money
90,765
Change: +10,841
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
358,016
Change: -8,125
17.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-546,125
Change: +15,489
-27.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.761 EUR/MWh (+0.256). JKM prices increased to 18.915 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.154 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.761
+0.256Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-11
JKM Prices
18.915
+0.030Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-11
JKM-TTF Spread
2.154
12.85%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-11
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.5
15.4
13.3
11.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.761 |
| AUG 26 | 16.971 |
| SEP 26 | 17.027 |
| OCT 26 | 16.994 |
| NOV 26 | 16.781 |
| DEC 26 | 16.749 |
| JAN 27 | 16.617 |
| FEB 27 | 16.355 |
| MAR 27 | 15.529 |
| APR 27 | 13.000 |
| MAY 27 | 12.103 |
| JUN 27 | 11.885 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.915 |
| AUG 26 | 18.890 |
| SEP 26 | 18.580 |
| OCT 26 | 18.055 |
| NOV 26 | 17.630 |
| DEC 26 | 17.505 |
| JAN 27 | 16.860 |
| FEB 27 | 15.735 |
| MAR 27 | 14.615 |
| APR 27 | 12.485 |
| MAY 27 | 11.985 |
| JUN 27 | 12.055 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-12 to 2026-06-10
Latest LNG Flow
17.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.50
(+3.0%)
30-Day Average
16.87
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 16.70 | N/A |
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | -0.50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
103
Last Updated:
2026-06-11 23:48:18
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil Rises on Escalating Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Could Unwind 2022 Output Cuts Eventually, But Market Dynamics Might Complicate Path — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
- US EIA SEES US CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT EXPORTS UP 1.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 TO AVERAGE 4.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 Mace News
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Falls on Easing War Risks and Weak China Demand Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.08
Closest Support:
$3.05
0.97% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
3.9% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.09
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-11 23:48:18
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.7%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.29 |
| 2026-06-13 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.27 |
| 2026-06-14 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.28 |
| 2026-06-15 | $3.1 | $2.92 | $3.28 |
| 2026-06-16 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.70% for the next trading day (2026-06-12), reaching $3.11.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-12 and 2026-06-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market exhibits a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.70%, with a predicted range of 2.93 to 3.29. Traders should be prepared for potential volatility given the mixed signals from technical indicators and market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance stands at 3.78 BCFD with a slight increase of +3.30, indicating a stable supply environment. However, the neutral market sentiment and negative news sentiment regarding demand could affect production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential risks associated with fluctuating demand forecasts and ongoing supply disruptions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a cooling-dominated weather outlook and low heating demand, consumers can expect stable supply conditions. However, the potential for price fluctuations exists, especially if the market sentiment shifts. The current fundamental balance suggests adequate supply, but consumers should remain vigilant regarding procurement strategies to safeguard against unforeseen price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The overall market presents a neutral sentiment with key indicators showing mixed signals. The fundamental balance indicates stability, but negative news sentiment, particularly concerning demand, poses a bearish outlook. Analysts should focus on monitoring the ML price forecasts and regional weather patterns, as these will be critical in identifying potential shifts in market dynamics moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations.