Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-12 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices experienced a bounce back, with Henry Hub rising to $3.135, defying expectations after a hefty +108 Bcf injection. However, the market remains conflicted, caught between a near-term support level and a longer-term ceiling. Despite rising LNG feedgas demand, storage levels are above the five-year average, creating pressure. The upcoming weeks could see prices fluctuating between $3.00 and $3.40, but the real trading opportunity lies in the back half of the year, where futures are projected higher. Stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.14
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.12
Current Price is 3.14, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.12
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0762
Signal: 0.0904
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.27
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.27 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 129,224
Avg (20d): 153,496
Ratio: 0.84
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 52.69
%D: 52.07
Stochastic %K: 52.69, %D: 52.07. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.82
+DI: 21.52
-DI: 18.15
ADX: 23.82 (+DI: 21.52, -DI: 18.15). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -47.31
Williams %R: -47.31 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.36
Middle: 3.12
Lower: 2.87
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.36, Middle: 3.12, Lower: 2.87
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
54.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
65.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/09 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/10 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/14 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/17 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.81
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.24 (-0.24%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7431.46
Daily:
37.16 (0.5%)
Weekly:
25.73 (0.35%)
VIX
17.68
Daily:
-1.76 (-9.05%)
Weekly:
-1.24 (-6.55%)
GOLD
4239.9
Daily:
149.6 (3.66%)
Weekly:
-96.0 (-2.21%)
COPPER
6.47
Daily:
0.22 (3.44%)
Weekly:
0.14 (2.28%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.672 EUR/MWh (-0.089). JKM prices increased to 18.920 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.248 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.672
-0.089Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-12
JKM Prices
18.920
+0.005Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-12
JKM-TTF Spread
2.248
13.48%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-12
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.5
15.4
13.3
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.672 |
| AUG 26 | 16.836 |
| SEP 26 | 16.891 |
| OCT 26 | 16.861 |
| NOV 26 | 16.683 |
| DEC 26 | 16.672 |
| JAN 27 | 16.583 |
| FEB 27 | 16.360 |
| MAR 27 | 15.577 |
| APR 27 | 13.070 |
| MAY 27 | 12.175 |
| JUN 27 | 11.956 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.920 |
| AUG 26 | 18.675 |
| SEP 26 | 18.425 |
| OCT 26 | 17.925 |
| NOV 26 | 17.525 |
| DEC 26 | 17.395 |
| JAN 27 | 16.810 |
| FEB 27 | 15.715 |
| MAR 27 | 14.625 |
| APR 27 | 12.495 |
| MAY 27 | 11.995 |
| JUN 27 | 12.065 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-13 to 2026-06-11
Latest LNG Flow
17.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
16.89
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 16.20 | N/A |
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
101
Last Updated:
2026-06-12 23:47:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Escalating Supply-Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Escalating Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
Demand (3 articles)
- US EIA SEES US CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT EXPORTS UP 1.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 TO AVERAGE 4.2 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 Mace News
- US EIA SEES GLOBAL CRUDE OIL DEMAND DOWN BY 1.1 MLN BARRELS A DAY IN 2026 FROM 2025 BUT UP 2.7 MLN IN 2027 AS PRICES DECLINE, MIDEAST OUTPUT RECOVERS Mace News
- Oil Falls on Easing War Risks and Weak China Demand Trading Economics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.14
Closest Support:
$3.05
2.87% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
1.91% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.09
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-12 23:47:55
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.7%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.29 |
| 2026-06-13 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.27 |
| 2026-06-14 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.28 |
| 2026-06-15 | $3.1 | $2.92 | $3.28 |
| 2026-06-16 | $3.11 | $2.93 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.70% for the next trading day (2026-06-12), reaching $3.11.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-12 and 2026-06-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market is currently in a neutral stance with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. This indicates potential price fluctuations within this range.
With the ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.70%, traders should be vigilant for short-term opportunities, particularly if prices approach the resistance level. However, the overall neutral technical interpretation suggests that volatility may be limited in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance stands at 3.78 BCFD, with a change of +3.30. This indicates a slight excess in supply, which could affect pricing strategies. Producers might want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
The bullish overall market sentiment, with a sentiment score of +0.200, suggests that despite the supply excess, there may be upward pressure on prices, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate. Monitoring news and sentiment can provide insights into necessary adjustments in production planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The current weather outlook indicates a COOLING dominated period with low heating demand expected. This could lead to stable pricing for consumers in the short term. However, the potential for price increases, as indicated by the ML forecast, may necessitate proactive procurement strategies.
Consumers should remain aware of the risks associated with supply reliability, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, indicating possible cost fluctuations that could impact budgeting and operational costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The convergence of data suggests that the market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and neutral factors. The fundamental balance indicates slight oversupply, while the bullish sentiment and moderate cooling demand may support prices in the near term.
Key driving factors include the hedging strategies of producers and the risks posed by geopolitical events. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely as they could shift the outlook significantly in either direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.