Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-13 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas demonstrated its resilience by bouncing back to $3.135 after a surprising injection of +108 Bcf, defying expectations. However, it faced a weekly decline of 3.4% as it remains caught between a near-term floor, bolstered by recovering LNG feedgas and cooling demand, and a long-term ceiling due to elevated storage levels and looming production increases. Traders should watch for a potential range fight; maintaining $3.00 could lead to gains towards $3.25, while a drop risks revisiting $2.75. Stay alert for shifts in LNG exports and weather patterns!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.12
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.12
Current Price is 3.12, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.12
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0745
Signal: 0.09
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.29
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 206,797
Avg (20d): 157,374
Ratio: 1.31
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 48.79
%D: 50.77
Stochastic %K: 48.79, %D: 50.77. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.82
+DI: 21.52
-DI: 18.15
ADX: 23.82 (+DI: 21.52, -DI: 18.15). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -51.21
Williams %R: -51.21 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.36
Middle: 3.12
Lower: 2.87
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.36, Middle: 3.12, Lower: 2.87
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
61.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
61.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/06 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/07 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/08 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/19 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/06 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/07 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/08 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/09 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/10 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/11 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/13 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/14 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/19 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.75
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.3 (-0.3%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7431.46
Daily:
37.16 (0.5%)
Weekly:
25.73 (0.35%)
VIX
17.68
Daily:
-1.76 (-9.05%)
Weekly:
-1.24 (-6.55%)
GOLD
4215.0
Daily:
124.7 (3.05%)
Weekly:
-120.9 (-2.79%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
0.17 (2.74%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.6%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.179 EUR/MWh (-0.493). JKM prices decreased to 18.855 USD/MMBtu (-0.065). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.676 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.179
-0.493Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-13
JKM Prices
18.855
-0.065Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-13
JKM-TTF Spread
2.676
16.54%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.6
17.4
15.3
13.1
11.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 16.179 |
| AUG 26 | 15.936 |
| SEP 26 | 15.994 |
| OCT 26 | 15.977 |
| NOV 26 | 15.848 |
| DEC 26 | 15.840 |
| JAN 27 | 15.762 |
| FEB 27 | 15.574 |
| MAR 27 | 14.831 |
| APR 27 | 12.708 |
| MAY 27 | 11.893 |
| JUN 27 | 11.704 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.855 |
| AUG 26 | 17.980 |
| SEP 26 | 17.705 |
| OCT 26 | 17.290 |
| NOV 26 | 16.915 |
| DEC 26 | 16.820 |
| JAN 27 | 16.245 |
| FEB 27 | 15.290 |
| MAR 27 | 14.235 |
| APR 27 | 12.730 |
| MAY 27 | 12.540 |
| JUN 27 | 12.550 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-14 to 2026-06-12
Latest LNG Flow
17.50
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
16.92
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.60
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 16.40 | N/A |
| 2026-06-04 | 16.80 | +0.40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16.50 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2026-06-13 23:47:06
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Escalating Supply-Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.12
Closest Support:
$3.05
2.24% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
2.56% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.12
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-13 23:47:06
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.57%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | $3.1 | $2.93 | $3.28 |
| 2026-06-14 | $3.12 | $2.94 | $3.29 |
| 2026-06-15 | $3.11 | $2.94 | $3.29 |
| 2026-06-16 | $3.12 | $2.94 | $3.29 |
| 2026-06-17 | $3.11 | $2.94 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.57% for the next trading day (2026-06-13), reaching $3.10.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-13 and 2026-06-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Given the neutral technical interpretation with a score of -1/5, traders should be cautious. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast predicts a downward movement of 0.57%, suggesting a short-term opportunity to capitalize on volatility around these levels. Traders should monitor for any significant news or market shifts that could alter this outlook.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.78 BCFD with a positive change of +3.30, indicating a stable supply environment. However, the technical sentiment suggests that producers should remain cautious in their production planning. The overall market sentiment is favorable, particularly for crude oil, which could support pricing. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations as market dynamics evolve.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers may experience stable energy costs in the short term. However, the ML forecast suggests potential cost fluctuations, particularly if prices dip towards the 2.93 level. It's advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage any supply reliability risks that may arise from market volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The overall market is characterized by a bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.233. Key driving factors include the fundamental balance and a strong cooling demand across several regions. However, the technical indicators suggest caution due to the lack of strong momentum. Analysts should keep an eye on crude oil dynamics, as the sentiment around it is notably positive, which may influence broader market trends. A comprehensive understanding of these elements will be crucial in anticipating potential outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.