Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-17 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has made a surprising rebound, with Henry Hub climbing back to $3.135 after a larger-than-expected storage injection of 108 Bcf. Despite this bounce, prices are stuck in a tug-of-war between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling, driven by recovering LNG feedgas and a persistent supply surplus. European gas prices have also dipped to two-month lows, adding to the market's uncertainty. Watch for upcoming weather forecasts and storage reports, as these will be pivotal for future price direction.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.78 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.16
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.16
MA(20): $3.14
Current Price is 3.16, 9 day MA 3.16, 20 day MA 3.14
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0672
Signal: 0.08
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.13
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,847
Avg (20d): 146,594
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 37.47
%D: 49.95
Stochastic %K: 37.47, %D: 49.95. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 22.86
+DI: 23.57
-DI: 14.89
ADX: 22.86 (+DI: 23.57, -DI: 14.89). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -62.53
Williams %R: -62.53 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.37
Middle: 3.14
Lower: 2.91
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.37, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.91
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.3 | 112.5 | 107.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.1 | 38.2 | 31.7 | 32.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 107.42 | 110.82 | 97.3 | 93.67 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.78 | 0.48 | 15.2 | 14.27 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
69.0 CDD
+18.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
58.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | 8.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/10 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/11 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/14 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/19 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/21 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.25
Daily:
0.71 (0.71%)
Weekly:
0.39 (0.39%)
US_10Y
4.46
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-1.44%)
SP500
7420.1
Daily:
-91.25 (-1.21%)
Weekly:
25.8 (0.35%)
VIX
18.44
Daily:
2.03 (12.37%)
Weekly:
-1.0 (-5.14%)
GOLD
4338.4
Daily:
7.5 (0.17%)
Weekly:
248.1 (6.07%)
COPPER
6.38
Daily:
-0.11 (-1.7%)
Weekly:
0.12 (1.91%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.356 EUR/MWh (-0.115). JKM prices remained stable to 18.783 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.427 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.356
-0.115Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-17
JKM Prices
18.783
+0.000Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-17
JKM-TTF Spread
3.427
22.32%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-17
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.3
15.0
12.7
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.356 |
| AUG 26 | 14.274 |
| SEP 26 | 14.342 |
| OCT 26 | 14.329 |
| NOV 26 | 14.224 |
| DEC 26 | 14.213 |
| JAN 27 | 14.142 |
| FEB 27 | 13.984 |
| MAR 27 | 13.365 |
| APR 27 | 11.895 |
| MAY 27 | 11.298 |
| JUN 27 | 11.150 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.783 |
| AUG 26 | 15.940 |
| SEP 26 | 15.660 |
| OCT 26 | 15.245 |
| NOV 26 | 14.915 |
| DEC 26 | 14.625 |
| JAN 27 | 14.060 |
| FEB 27 | 13.640 |
| MAR 27 | 12.950 |
| APR 27 | 12.085 |
| MAY 27 | 11.825 |
| JUN 27 | 11.865 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-18 to 2026-06-16
Latest LNG Flow
17.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.03
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.90
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | 16.30 | N/A |
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.375
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
106
Last Updated:
2026-06-17 23:47:10
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Boosts Supply Hopes Trading Economics
- Oil slides on Iran supply prospects as traders wait on Warsh Reuters
- Oil Holds Decline on Supply Optimism Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses on Renewed Oil Supply Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
- Oil Demand Recovery to Be Uneven Across Products, IEA Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Down Further on Hormuz Reopening Prospects, Weaker Physical Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.16
Closest Support:
$3.05
3.48% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
1.27% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.14
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-17 23:47:10
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.69%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | $3.17 | $2.99 | $3.34 |
| 2026-06-19 | $3.14 | $2.96 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-20 | $3.15 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
| 2026-06-21 | $3.14 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.15 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.69% for the next trading day (2026-06-18), reaching $3.17.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-18 and 2026-06-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook, with Fibonacci support at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. The fundamental balance is currently at 3.78 BCFD, reflecting an increase of +3.30, which could suggest increased supply pressures.
The weather outlook is predominantly cooling, particularly in the South and West regions, which may drive short-term demand. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.375, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.69%, with a range of 2.99 to 3.34.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the bearish market sentiment, particularly in crude oil, where sentiment scores are notably low. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in supply, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies in light of the support and resistance levels identified.
Given the cooling demand forecast, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, it may be prudent to adjust production levels accordingly to align with expected market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the current bearish sentiment in the market. The cooling demand forecast suggests that while immediate heating needs may be low, cooling demand could impact electricity prices, particularly in regions with high cooling degree days (CDD).
Additionally, with the fundamental balance indicating increased supply, consumers might find opportunities for favorable procurement contracts. Monitoring market conditions closely will be essential for effective procurement decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook driven by low sentiment scores across key commodities, particularly crude oil. The overall fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in supply, which may lead to downward price pressures.
Regional weather patterns suggest a dominance of cooling demand, particularly in the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest may experience less heating demand. Analysts should focus on these regional disparities when forecasting and advising clients on potential market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.