Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-18 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is experiencing a volatile tug-of-war, bouncing back to $3.135 after a larger-than-expected storage injection of +108 Bcf. While this short-term rally is buoyed by recovering LNG feedgas and rising cooling demand, the market remains constrained by high storage levels, which sit 6% above the five-year average. With a near-term support around $3.00 and resistance at $3.40, traders are advised to monitor these levels closely. The structural bullish sentiment persists, but caution is warranted amid potential production increases.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.2
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.16
MA(20): $3.15
Current Price is 3.2, 9 day MA 3.16, 20 day MA 3.15
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0651
Signal: 0.0768
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 56.15
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 56.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 858
Avg (20d): 147,562
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 49.08
%D: 47.14
Stochastic %K: 49.08, %D: 47.14. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.26
+DI: 23.19
-DI: 13.71
ADX: 23.26 (+DI: 23.19, -DI: 13.71). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -50.92
Williams %R: -50.92 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.37
Middle: 3.15
Lower: 2.92
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.37, Middle: 3.15, Lower: 2.92
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
67.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
60.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/18 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | 11.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/11 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/14 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/18 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/19 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.92
Daily:
0.83 (0.83%)
Weekly:
1.17 (1.17%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.8%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.7%)
SP500
7500.58
Daily:
80.48 (1.08%)
Weekly:
69.12 (0.93%)
VIX
16.4
Daily:
-2.04 (-11.06%)
Weekly:
-1.28 (-7.24%)
GOLD
4182.2
Daily:
-176.7 (-4.05%)
Weekly:
-32.8 (-0.78%)
COPPER
6.32
Daily:
-0.16 (-2.54%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-1.77%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.370 EUR/MWh (+0.014). JKM prices remained stable to 18.783 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.413 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.370
+0.014Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-18
JKM Prices
18.783
+0.000Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-18
JKM-TTF Spread
3.413
22.21%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.5
17.3
15.0
12.7
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.370 |
| AUG 26 | 14.293 |
| SEP 26 | 14.372 |
| OCT 26 | 14.349 |
| NOV 26 | 14.255 |
| DEC 26 | 14.252 |
| JAN 27 | 14.204 |
| FEB 27 | 14.059 |
| MAR 27 | 13.442 |
| APR 27 | 11.930 |
| MAY 27 | 11.307 |
| JUN 27 | 11.160 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 18.783 |
| AUG 26 | 15.820 |
| SEP 26 | 15.460 |
| OCT 26 | 15.105 |
| NOV 26 | 14.855 |
| DEC 26 | 14.925 |
| JAN 27 | 14.775 |
| FEB 27 | 14.495 |
| MAR 27 | 13.455 |
| APR 27 | 12.185 |
| MAY 27 | 11.540 |
| JUN 27 | 11.570 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-19 to 2026-06-17
Latest LNG Flow
17.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
17.06
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.90
BCF/D
30-Day Low
14.60
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | 16.50 | N/A |
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.075
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
131
Last Updated:
2026-06-18 23:47:24
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil Drops as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Slides After Trump Signs Iran Deal, Boosting Supply Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Boosts Supply Hopes Trading Economics
- Oil slides on Iran supply prospects as traders wait on Warsh Reuters
- Oil Holds Decline on Supply Optimism Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses on Renewed Oil Supply Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (4 articles)
- Gulf Exports Could Normalize Before Hormuz Traffic Fully Recovers, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Demand Recovery to Be Uneven Across Products, IEA Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Down Further on Hormuz Reopening Prospects, Weaker Physical Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Rebound as LNG Exports Expand Barchart
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.2
Closest Support:
$3.2
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
6.25% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Current Price
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-18 23:47:25
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.01%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | $3.2 | $3.02 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-20 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.4 |
| 2026-06-21 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-23 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.01% for the next trading day (2026-06-19), reaching $3.20.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-19 and 2026-06-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a neutral technical outlook with a Fibonacci support level at 3.2 and resistance at 3.4. Traders should note the fundamental balance at 3.08 BCFD, indicating a slight increase in supply. With the cooling demand dominating across all regions, particularly in the South and West, expect moderate price fluctuations. The ML price forecast indicates a potential drop of 1.01% within a range of 3.02 to 3.38, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The neutral sentiment in the market, alongside the fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD, suggests a stable production environment. However, the recent headlines regarding geopolitical tensions and supply boosts from the US-Iran peace deal may necessitate a reassessment of hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility. Producers should also monitor the cooling demand trends, as this could affect operational planning and inventory levels.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current neutral market sentiment and low heating demand expected due to the cooling outlook, consumers can anticipate stable costs in the near term. However, the slight increase in fundamental balance and the potential price drop indicated by the ML forecast could present opportunities for strategic procurement. Consumers should remain vigilant about potential supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical developments and adjust their procurement strategies accordingly.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The synthesis of current market data reveals a neutral outlook, with key factors driving the market being a stable fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD and a predominance of cooling demand. The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, coupled with the ML price forecast indicating a potential decline, suggests a cautious approach moving forward. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical risks and the evolving supply-demand dynamics as potential shifts in the market outlook could emerge.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific recommendations for trading or investment.