Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-19 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has shown resilience, bouncing back to $3.135 after a +108 Bcf injection, despite initial bearish sentiment. With LNG feedgas recovering and cooling demand building, the market faces a tug-of-war between a near-term floor and a long-term ceiling. Storage levels are 6% above the five-year average, and production from the Permian is adding pressure. Watch for a potential range fight; holding above $3.00 could push towards $3.25, while a dip below could see prices testing $2.75. Keep an eye on December and January futures for longer-term plays.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.2
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.17
MA(20): $3.16
Current Price is 3.2, 9 day MA 3.17, 20 day MA 3.16
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.065
Signal: 0.0749
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 21,800
Avg (20d): 153,459
Ratio: 0.14
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 50.42
%D: 47.06
Stochastic %K: 50.42, %D: 47.06. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.49
+DI: 22.18
-DI: 12.91
ADX: 23.49 (+DI: 22.18, -DI: 12.91). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -49.58
Williams %R: -49.58 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.16
Lower: 2.94
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.16, Lower: 2.94
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
63.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
59.0 CDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/14 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/19 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/21 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.85
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
1.22 (1.22%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7500.58
Daily:
80.48 (1.08%)
Weekly:
69.12 (0.93%)
VIX
16.78
Daily:
0.38 (2.32%)
Weekly:
0.58 (3.58%)
GOLD
4172.9
Daily:
-51.2 (-1.21%)
Weekly:
-155.1 (-3.58%)
COPPER
6.34
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.59%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-2.24%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.151 EUR/MWh (-0.219). JKM prices decreased to 15.315 USD/MMBtu (-0.505). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.164 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.151
-0.219Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-19
JKM Prices
15.315
-0.505Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-19
JKM-TTF Spread
0.164
1.08%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
15.8
14.4
13.1
11.8
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.151 |
| AUG 26 | 13.692 |
| SEP 26 | 13.767 |
| OCT 26 | 13.768 |
| NOV 26 | 13.723 |
| DEC 26 | 13.740 |
| JAN 27 | 13.697 |
| FEB 27 | 13.574 |
| MAR 27 | 13.044 |
| APR 27 | 11.624 |
| MAY 27 | 11.072 |
| JUN 27 | 10.931 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.315 |
| SEP 26 | 14.930 |
| OCT 26 | 14.660 |
| NOV 26 | 14.470 |
| DEC 26 | 14.505 |
| JAN 27 | 14.385 |
| FEB 27 | 14.115 |
| MAR 27 | 13.150 |
| APR 27 | 11.940 |
| MAY 27 | 11.380 |
| JUN 27 | 11.415 |
| JUL 27 | 11.575 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-20 to 2026-06-18
Latest LNG Flow
17.70
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.18
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.90
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 16.60 | N/A |
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
116
Last Updated:
2026-06-19 23:47:11
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil Drops as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Slides After Trump Signs Iran Deal, Boosting Supply Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Boosts Supply Hopes Trading Economics
- Oil slides on Iran supply prospects as traders wait on Warsh Reuters
- Oil Holds Decline on Supply Optimism Trading Economics
- Crude Extends Losses on Renewed Oil Supply Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
- Gulf Exports Could Normalize Before Hormuz Traffic Fully Recovers, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Demand Recovery to Be Uneven Across Products, IEA Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Down Further on Hormuz Reopening Prospects, Weaker Physical Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.2
Closest Support:
$3.05
4.69% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
0.0% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Current Price
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-19 23:47:11
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | $3.2 | $3.02 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-20 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.4 |
| 2026-06-21 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-23 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.02% for the next trading day (2026-06-19), reaching $3.20.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-19 and 2026-06-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.05, while resistance is at 3.2. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 1.02% with a trading range of 3.02 to 3.38. This could present short-term opportunities for those looking to capitalize on volatility but also indicates risks if prices breach support levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance is at 3.08 BCFD with a slight increase of +1.00. This suggests a stable supply environment, but the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, driven by geopolitical factors, may create challenges for pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, particularly in light of recent news that may increase supply.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The weather outlook indicates a predominance of cooling demand, particularly in the South and West regions, which could lead to fluctuating costs in the short term. With low heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. It may be prudent to explore hedging options against price volatility, especially if cooling demand persists.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market landscape presents a neutral sentiment overall, with specific bearish pressures on crude oil due to geopolitical developments. The fundamental balance remains stable, but the bearish outlook from recent news and the ML price forecast suggests caution. Analysts should closely monitor these driving factors as they could signal shifts in market dynamics and influence future pricing strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.