Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-20 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas recently showcased its resilience, rebounding to $3.135 despite a hefty +108 Bcf injection exceeding forecasts. However, the market remains in a tug-of-war, with a near-term floor at $3.00 and a looming ceiling driven by elevated storage levels and a potential influx from Permian production. While LNG feedgas demand and cooling weather offer support, a split sentiment persists. Keep an eye on inventory data; a sustained hold above $3.00 could trigger a rally, while a drop may open the gates toward $2.75.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.2
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.17
MA(20): $3.16
Current Price is 3.2, 9 day MA 3.17, 20 day MA 3.16
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.065
Signal: 0.0749
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 21,800
Avg (20d): 152,334
Ratio: 0.14
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 50.42
%D: 47.06
Stochastic %K: 50.42, %D: 47.06. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.49
+DI: 22.18
-DI: 12.91
ADX: 23.49 (+DI: 22.18, -DI: 12.91). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -49.58
Williams %R: -49.58 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.38
Middle: 3.16
Lower: 2.94
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.38, Middle: 3.16, Lower: 2.94
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
59.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
60.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12 | 12.0 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 06/13 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/14 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/20 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/21 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.85
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
1.22 (1.22%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
SP500
7500.58
Daily:
80.48 (1.08%)
Weekly:
69.12 (0.93%)
VIX
16.4
Daily:
-2.04 (-11.06%)
Weekly:
-1.28 (-7.24%)
GOLD
4172.9
Daily:
-51.2 (-1.21%)
Weekly:
-155.1 (-3.58%)
COPPER
6.34
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.59%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-2.24%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.151 EUR/MWh (-0.219). JKM prices decreased to 15.315 USD/MMBtu (-0.505). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.164 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.151
-0.219Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-20
JKM Prices
15.315
-0.505Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-20
JKM-TTF Spread
0.164
1.08%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
15.8
14.4
13.1
11.8
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.151 |
| AUG 26 | 13.692 |
| SEP 26 | 13.767 |
| OCT 26 | 13.768 |
| NOV 26 | 13.723 |
| DEC 26 | 13.740 |
| JAN 27 | 13.697 |
| FEB 27 | 13.574 |
| MAR 27 | 13.044 |
| APR 27 | 11.624 |
| MAY 27 | 11.072 |
| JUN 27 | 10.931 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.315 |
| SEP 26 | 14.930 |
| OCT 26 | 14.660 |
| NOV 26 | 14.470 |
| DEC 26 | 14.505 |
| JAN 27 | 14.385 |
| FEB 27 | 14.115 |
| MAR 27 | 13.150 |
| APR 27 | 11.940 |
| MAY 27 | 11.380 |
| JUN 27 | 11.415 |
| JUL 27 | 11.575 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-21 to 2026-06-19
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.20
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.90
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 16.80 | N/A |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
88
Last Updated:
2026-06-20 23:47:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil Drops as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Slides After Trump Signs Iran Deal, Boosting Supply Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Boosts Supply Hopes Trading Economics
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.2
Closest Support:
$3.05
4.69% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
0.0% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Current Price
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.2
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-20 23:47:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.7%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | $3.22 | $3.05 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-21 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.37 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-23 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-24 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.70% for the next trading day (2026-06-20), reaching $3.22.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-20 and 2026-06-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market presents a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.70%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, which could introduce volatility and risk in trading positions. Traders should monitor the fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD and the prevailing cooling demand, particularly in the South and West regions, which may influence price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should take note of the bearish sentiment in the market, particularly influenced by geopolitical factors that are increasing supply outlooks. The news regarding the US-Iran peace deal may lead to a more favorable supply environment, potentially affecting pricing strategies. With a fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD and a cooling demand forecast, producers may need to adjust their production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and demand variability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The weather outlook indicates a dominance of cooling demand, particularly in warmer regions, which could lead to increased consumption. While the current sentiment for natural gas is neutral, the bearish sentiment in crude oil may affect overall energy prices. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to manage supply reliability risks and potential price increases in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a convergence of bearish sentiments and a neutral technical outlook. The fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD alongside the cooling demand forecasts suggests that while there may be short-term price increases, the overall market conditions remain fragile. The geopolitical landscape, particularly related to crude oil supply, is a significant driving factor that could shift market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these developments to provide informed insights and forecasts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.