Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-21 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas recently showed its resilience, bouncing back to $3.135 after a solid 108 Bcf injection. Despite a weekly drop of 3.4%, the market is caught between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling. Positive indicators like recovering LNG feedgas and rising cooling demand suggest upside potential. However, the storage levels remain 6% above the five-year average, creating resistance. Traders should watch the $3.00 mark—holding it could lead to a rally toward $3.25, while a breach may drop prices to $2.75–$2.80. Stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.28
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.16
Current Price is 3.28, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.16
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0717
Signal: 0.0762
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.59
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.59 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 26,609
Avg (20d): 152,574
Ratio: 0.17
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 73.82
%D: 54.86
Stochastic %K: 73.82, %D: 54.86. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.85
+DI: 24.15
-DI: 12.58
ADX: 23.85 (+DI: 24.15, -DI: 12.58). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -26.18
Williams %R: -26.18 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.39
Middle: 3.16
Lower: 2.94
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.39, Middle: 3.16, Lower: 2.94
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
54.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
63.0 CDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/13 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/14 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/13 | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/14 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/21 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/22 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/27 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.87
Daily:
0.02 (0.02%)
Weekly:
1.24 (1.24%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-0.8%)
SP500
7500.58
Daily:
80.48 (1.08%)
Weekly:
69.12 (0.93%)
VIX
16.4
Daily:
-2.04 (-11.06%)
Weekly:
-1.28 (-7.24%)
GOLD
4196.0
Daily:
-28.1 (-0.67%)
Weekly:
-132.0 (-3.05%)
COPPER
6.32
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.91%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.56%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,637,740
Change: -26,263
Managed Money
-122,617
Change: -7,763
-7.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,073
Change: +1,710
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
196,811
Change: +115
12.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-71,340
Change: -79
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-09
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,635
Change: -18,545
Managed Money
94,725
Change: +3,960
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
365,942
Change: +7,926
18.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-536,668
Change: +9,457
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.151 EUR/MWh (-0.219). JKM prices decreased to 15.315 USD/MMBtu (-0.505). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.164 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.151
-0.219Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-21
JKM Prices
15.315
-0.505Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-21
JKM-TTF Spread
0.164
1.08%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
15.8
14.4
13.1
11.8
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.151 |
| AUG 26 | 13.692 |
| SEP 26 | 13.767 |
| OCT 26 | 13.768 |
| NOV 26 | 13.723 |
| DEC 26 | 13.740 |
| JAN 27 | 13.697 |
| FEB 27 | 13.574 |
| MAR 27 | 13.044 |
| APR 27 | 11.624 |
| MAY 27 | 11.072 |
| JUN 27 | 10.931 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.315 |
| SEP 26 | 14.930 |
| OCT 26 | 14.660 |
| NOV 26 | 14.470 |
| DEC 26 | 14.505 |
| JAN 27 | 14.385 |
| FEB 27 | 14.115 |
| MAR 27 | 13.150 |
| APR 27 | 11.940 |
| MAY 27 | 11.380 |
| JUN 27 | 11.415 |
| JUL 27 | 11.575 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-22 to 2026-06-20
Latest LNG Flow
17.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.21
BCF/D
30-Day High
17.90
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 17.30 | N/A |
| 2026-06-11 | 17.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
47
Last Updated:
2026-06-21 23:47:10
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Drops as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Slides After Trump Signs Iran Deal, Boosting Supply Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- US VP VANCE Q&A: AIM IS TO WITHDRAW US TROOPS TO PRE-CONFLICT LEVEL; TO ALLOW ARAB STATES TO INVEST IN IRAN; INCREASES LEVERAGE OVER IRAN Mace News
- US VP VANCE Q&A: RE MOU, 'DON'T TRUST WORDS, TRUST ACTIONS;' SANCTIONS STILL ON WITH EXCEPTION OF OIL SANCTION; CAN ALWAYS TURN SANCTIONS BACK ON Mace News
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.28
Closest Support:
$3.2
2.44% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
3.66% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-21 23:47:11
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.01%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | $3.2 | $3.02 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-20 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.4 |
| 2026-06-21 | $3.2 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.21 | $3.04 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-23 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.01% for the next trading day (2026-06-19), reaching $3.20.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-19 and 2026-06-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.2 while resistance is at 3.4. Traders should be aware of the potential for volatility as the price is forecasted to move down by 1.01%, indicating possible short-term opportunities or risks within the range of 3.02 to 3.38.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bearish overall market sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.350, suggests caution in production planning. The fundamental balance is at 3.08 BCFD, showing an increase, which may influence hedging strategies. Producers should monitor geopolitical developments closely, especially regarding supply changes due to the US-Iran peace deal, as indicated by recent headlines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a cooling demand expected across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the short term. The low heating demand alongside high cooling demand may create a mixed supply reliability scenario. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility as the market sentiment remains bearish.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently under a bearish sentiment, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and a neutral technical outlook. The fundamental balance shows a slight increase in supply, which may not be enough to counteract the negative sentiment affecting crude oil prices. Analysts should focus on monitoring the impact of weather forecasts on demand and the implications of ongoing geopolitical negotiations on future supply dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.