Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
**Natural Gas Summary:**
Natural gas prices recently bounced back to $3.135 after a +108 Bcf injection, defying bearish sentiment as it faced a near-term floor amid rising LNG demand and cooling weather. Despite a week-over-week decline of 3.4%, the market remains torn between a ceiling of ample storage and a structural bull outlook tied to long-term global demand. As the market hovers around $3.00, it could swing either way: a hold above may target $3.20-$3.40, while a drop could lead to quick retreats toward $2.75-$2.80. Watch for weather patterns and LNG feedgas trends.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.18
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.18
Current Price is 3.18, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.18
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0642
Signal: 0.0734
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.84
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,243
Avg (20d): 155,792
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 45.13
%D: 55.95
Stochastic %K: 45.13, %D: 55.95. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.08
+DI: 24.96
-DI: 15.19
ADX: 24.08 (+DI: 24.96, -DI: 15.19). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -54.87
Williams %R: -54.87 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.37
Middle: 3.18
Lower: 2.99
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.37, Middle: 3.18, Lower: 2.99
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 HDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
72.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/15 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/20 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/21 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/24 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/26 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/27 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/28 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/29 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.47
Daily:
0.46 (0.45%)
Weekly:
1.93 (1.94%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
0.04 (0.94%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.54%)
SP500
7365.46
Daily:
-107.33 (-1.44%)
Weekly:
-145.89 (-1.94%)
VIX
19.49
Daily:
2.21 (12.79%)
Weekly:
3.08 (18.77%)
GOLD
4078.1
Daily:
-103.8 (-2.48%)
Weekly:
-252.8 (-5.84%)
COPPER
6.12
Daily:
-0.24 (-3.78%)
Weekly:
-0.37 (-5.75%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,644,546
Change: +6,806
Managed Money
-84,909
Change: +37,708
-5.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,589
Change: -7,516
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
191,343
Change: -5,468
11.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-88,567
Change: -17,227
-5.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: +1,074
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.287 EUR/MWh (+0.136). JKM prices increased to 15.860 USD/MMBtu (+0.545). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.573 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.287
+0.136Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-23
JKM Prices
15.860
+0.545Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-23
JKM-TTF Spread
0.573
3.75%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.3
14.9
13.4
12.0
10.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.287 |
| AUG 26 | 14.111 |
| SEP 26 | 14.193 |
| OCT 26 | 14.202 |
| NOV 26 | 14.146 |
| DEC 26 | 14.145 |
| JAN 27 | 14.089 |
| FEB 27 | 13.934 |
| MAR 27 | 13.388 |
| APR 27 | 11.802 |
| MAY 27 | 11.197 |
| JUN 27 | 11.039 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.860 |
| SEP 26 | 15.465 |
| OCT 26 | 15.105 |
| NOV 26 | 14.900 |
| DEC 26 | 14.950 |
| JAN 27 | 14.805 |
| FEB 27 | 14.490 |
| MAR 27 | 13.520 |
| APR 27 | 12.095 |
| MAY 27 | 11.530 |
| JUN 27 | 11.500 |
| JUL 27 | 11.705 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-25 to 2026-06-22
Latest LNG Flow
18.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.50
(+2.8%)
30-Day Average
17.27
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
28
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 17.50 | N/A |
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
62
Last Updated:
2026-06-23 23:48:21
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.18
Closest Support:
$3.05
4.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.2
0.63% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
Support
0.786
$3.2
Resistance
1.0
$3.4
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.15
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-23 23:48:22
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | $3.16 | $2.99 | $3.33 |
| 2026-06-25 | $3.14 | $2.96 | $3.31 |
| 2026-06-26 | $3.15 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
| 2026-06-27 | $3.15 | $2.97 | $3.32 |
| 2026-06-28 | $3.16 | $2.98 | $3.33 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-06-24), reaching $3.16.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-24 and 2026-06-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.05 and resistance at 3.2. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.43%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, which may introduce volatility. Traders should monitor price movements closely around the resistance level for potential breakout or reversal signals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.08 BCFD, indicating a slight increase, which may provide a stable production environment. However, the bearish sentiment in the market could affect pricing power and necessitate careful hedging strategies. Producers should also consider the high cooling demand forecasted across all regions, which could impact gas supply dynamics and pricing.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With low heating demand expected and high cooling demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to short-term price decreases, but the overall demand for cooling may keep prices elevated. It’s advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price spikes during peak cooling periods.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment overall, despite a slight upward forecast in prices. The fundamental balance suggests stability, but the cooling demand across all regions indicates strong consumption patterns. Analysts should focus on the divergence between market sentiment and demand forecasts, as this could signal potential shifts in market dynamics. Monitoring weather impacts and sentiment trends will be crucial for accurate forecasting.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.