Natural gas did the thing it loves to do right after everyone writes it off — it bounced, dip-buyers dragging Henry Hub back to $3.135 and reclaiming the $3.127 shelf less than a day after a +108 Bcf injection (against the +101 consensus and the +95 norm) gut-punched it lower. Up ~1.1% on the day, down 3.4% on the week: that split is the whole story, because gas is now pinned between a near-term floor and a longer-term ceiling and can't decide which one it believes. The floor is real — LNG feedgas is recovering, cooling demand builds into early July, and the deficit versus last year keeps widening — but so is the ceiling, with storage ~6% above the five-year, durable summer heat "conspicuously absent" east of the Rockies, and a Permian production wave loading in behind every rally. The structural bull (Ras Laffan down 17% for three-to-five years, a ~$12/MMBtu arb to TTF) is patient money that does not trade this week's tape. Where it goes near-term is a range fight — hold $3.00 and the bounce can press the $3.20–$3.25 zone and maybe $3.40; lose $3.00 and $2.75–$2.80 opens in a hurry — but the trade that actually pays is still the back half, where Dec ~$3.95 and Jan ~$4.35 sit more than a dollar over a sleepy $3.13 prompt. Trade the front for chop; own the back for the re-rate.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-24 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is experiencing a turbulent phase, bouncing back to $3.135 despite a hefty 108 Bcf injection, which surpassed expectations. While the market grapples with a near-term floor supported by rising LNG feedgas and increasing cooling demand, it faces a ceiling from elevated storage levels and robust production. The challenge lies in navigating this range: maintaining above $3.00 could lead to a push towards $3.20–$3.40, but falling below risks dropping to $2.75–$2.80. Watch for weather patterns and LNG flows that could shift sentiment.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.08 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.28
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.19
Current Price is 3.28, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.19
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0653
Signal: 0.0714
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.08
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,053
Avg (20d): 156,877
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 72.7
%D: 58.22
Stochastic %K: 72.7, %D: 58.22. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.46
+DI: 23.18
-DI: 15.3
ADX: 23.46 (+DI: 23.18, -DI: 15.3). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -27.3
Williams %R: -27.3 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.34
Middle: 3.19
Lower: 3.05
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.34, Middle: 3.19, Lower: 3.05
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.8 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.9 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 37.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 17.0 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.73 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 107.72 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 95.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.08 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 12.03 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
47.0 CDD
-11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
73.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/16 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/16 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/20 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/21 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/22 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/24 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/25 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/27 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/28 | 11.0 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/30 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.51
Daily:
0.1 (0.1%)
Weekly:
1.42 (1.42%)
US_10Y
4.4
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.1%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.5%)
SP500
7358.22
Daily:
-7.24 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-61.88 (-0.83%)
VIX
18.63
Daily:
-0.86 (-4.41%)
Weekly:
0.19 (1.03%)
GOLD
3985.7
Daily:
-144.2 (-3.49%)
Weekly:
-373.2 (-8.56%)
COPPER
5.99
Daily:
-0.15 (-2.47%)
Weekly:
-0.49 (-7.59%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,644,546
Change: +6,806
Managed Money
-84,909
Change: +37,708
-5.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,589
Change: -7,516
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
191,343
Change: -5,468
11.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-88,567
Change: -17,227
-5.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: +1,074
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.279 EUR/MWh (-0.008). JKM prices decreased to 15.740 USD/MMBtu (-0.120). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.461 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.279
-0.008Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-24
JKM Prices
15.740
-0.120Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-24
JKM-TTF Spread
0.461
3.02%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.2
14.8
13.4
12.0
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.279 |
| AUG 26 | 14.077 |
| SEP 26 | 14.170 |
| OCT 26 | 14.170 |
| NOV 26 | 14.111 |
| DEC 26 | 14.114 |
| JAN 27 | 14.046 |
| FEB 27 | 13.876 |
| MAR 27 | 13.334 |
| APR 27 | 11.734 |
| MAY 27 | 11.149 |
| JUN 27 | 11.006 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.740 |
| SEP 26 | 15.310 |
| OCT 26 | 14.990 |
| NOV 26 | 14.775 |
| DEC 26 | 14.855 |
| JAN 27 | 14.735 |
| FEB 27 | 14.400 |
| MAR 27 | 13.450 |
| APR 27 | 12.015 |
| MAY 27 | 11.480 |
| JUN 27 | 11.465 |
| JUL 27 | 11.655 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-25 to 2026-06-23
Latest LNG Flow
18.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.30
(-1.6%)
30-Day Average
17.30
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 17.60 | N/A |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.033
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
86
Last Updated:
2026-06-24 23:47:07
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- Renewable Fuel Standards Changes Expected to Bolster Ag Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.28
Closest Support:
$3.2
2.44% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
3.66% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.22
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-24 23:47:08
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.85%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
| 2026-06-26 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-27 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
| 2026-06-28 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.39 |
| 2026-06-29 | $3.21 | $3.03 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.85% for the next trading day (2026-06-25), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-25 and 2026-06-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
With a neutral technical interpretation and a price forecast indicating a potential decline of 0.85%, traders should be cautious. Key support at 3.2 and resistance at 3.4 suggest a tight trading range. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating limited volatility but possible short-term opportunities if price movements approach these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Given the fundamental balance of 3.08 BCFD with a slight increase, producers may need to adjust production plans cautiously. The neutral sentiment in news indicates stable demand, but the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil supply could affect pricing strategies. Hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate potential risks from fluctuating prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook favoring cooling demand, consumers can expect moderate demand for power generation. However, the neutral market sentiment suggests potential price stability in the short term. It's advisable to monitor supply reliability closely, especially in light of the recent supply concerns in crude oil, which may impact energy costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with key drivers being the moderate cooling demand and the fundamental balance showing a slight increase. The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil supply could shift market dynamics, indicating a need for close monitoring of supply and demand metrics. Analysts should prepare for potential outlook shifts as the market adjusts to these driving factors.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.