Natural gas tried to break out to $3.342, the weather declined to participate, and now it's back inside its $3.127–$3.247 range doing a convincing impression of a market that fell asleep. Technically that range is the trade: clear $3.247 and you still need $3.342 to open the path to $3.525 fair value; lose $3.127 and you're testing $3.00, because absent a bullish shift in weather or demand, gravity does the rest — and "meh" demand running right alongside historical averages is gravity's best friend. The fundamentals are split, which is exactly why it's range-bound: bearish, storage sits ~5.6% above the five-year average, production is ample near 109–111 Bcf/d, and there's simply no demand pulse forcing the issue; bullish, the week's injection is seen in the low-70s Bcf (constructive versus both the 5-year average and last year), LNG feedgas is running at record levels on the Golden Pass ramp (~17.3 Bcf/d), heat is finally building across the eastern two-thirds through July 9, and underneath it all sits the slow burn — Ras Laffan down 17% of global LNG capacity for years and European storage at just 47% versus a 61% norm. Bullish setup, sleepy reality. The thermometer breaks the tie, and until it does, respect the range.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-25 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently oscillating within a $3.127–$3.247 range, with a recent attempt to break out stymied by lackluster demand and weather forecasts. Despite production levels hovering around 109–111 Bcf/d and storage slightly above the five-year average, a bullish injection of low-70s Bcf offers some support. However, with LNG feedgas at record levels and European storage lagging at 47%, the market's outlook hinges on weather shifts that could ignite demand. Until then, watch for signals around $3.342 to gauge potential upside.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.28 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.29
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.2
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.29, 9 day MA 3.2, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0645
Signal: 0.0693
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.55
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,293
Avg (20d): 149,386
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 77.01
%D: 56.68
Stochastic %K: 77.01, %D: 56.68. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 23.31
+DI: 25.12
-DI: 15.44
ADX: 23.31 (+DI: 25.12, -DI: 15.44). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.99
Williams %R: -22.99 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.33
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.07
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.33, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.07
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.4 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 108.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.7 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.4 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.4 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.73 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 109.12 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 97.07 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 2.28 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
48.0 CDD
-11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
80.0 CDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/20 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/21 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/22 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/23 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/27 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/28 | 11.0 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 06/30 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/01 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.49
Daily:
-0.12 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
0.64 (0.63%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.72%)
SP500
7357.49
Daily:
-0.73 (-0.01%)
Weekly:
-143.09 (-1.91%)
VIX
18.89
Daily:
0.26 (1.4%)
Weekly:
2.49 (15.18%)
GOLD
4010.5
Daily:
20.2 (0.51%)
Weekly:
-213.6 (-5.06%)
COPPER
6.04
Daily:
0.09 (1.57%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-5.3%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,644,546
Change: +6,806
Managed Money
-84,909
Change: +37,708
-5.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-28,589
Change: -7,516
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
191,343
Change: -5,468
11.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-88,567
Change: -17,227
-5.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,007,709
Change: +1,074
Managed Money
96,228
Change: +1,503
4.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,716
Change: +12,774
18.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-544,055
Change: -7,387
-27.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.202 EUR/MWh (-0.077). JKM prices decreased to 15.550 USD/MMBtu (-0.190). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.348 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.202
-0.077Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-25
JKM Prices
15.550
-0.190Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-25
JKM-TTF Spread
0.348
2.29%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.0
14.6
13.2
11.8
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.202 |
| AUG 26 | 13.661 |
| SEP 26 | 13.750 |
| OCT 26 | 13.769 |
| NOV 26 | 13.717 |
| DEC 26 | 13.725 |
| JAN 27 | 13.672 |
| FEB 27 | 13.506 |
| MAR 27 | 13.004 |
| APR 27 | 11.478 |
| MAY 27 | 10.943 |
| JUN 27 | 10.818 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.550 |
| SEP 26 | 14.845 |
| OCT 26 | 14.550 |
| NOV 26 | 14.405 |
| DEC 26 | 14.490 |
| JAN 27 | 14.350 |
| FEB 27 | 14.015 |
| MAR 27 | 13.130 |
| APR 27 | 11.790 |
| MAY 27 | 11.310 |
| JUN 27 | 11.310 |
| JUL 27 | 11.490 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-26 to 2026-06-24
Latest LNG Flow
17.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.6%)
30-Day Average
17.31
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 17.80 | N/A |
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.033
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
102
Last Updated:
2026-06-25 23:47:04
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
- Canadian Gas Consumption Hits Record in First Quarter — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Renewable Fuel Standards Changes Expected to Bolster Ag Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures ease 1% on lower demand forecasts Reuters
Weather (6 articles)
- US natgas futures ease 1% on lower demand forecasts Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Advance on Weather Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas prices settle at 2-week high on LNG flows, warmer weather outlook Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Climb as US Weather Forecasts Turn Hotter Barchart
- US natgas prices rise 1% on LNG flows, warmer weather outlook Reuters
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain on July Weather Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.29
Closest Support:
$3.2
2.74% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
3.34% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-25 23:47:04
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.35%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $3.35 | $3.18 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-27 | $3.37 | $3.19 | $3.54 |
| 2026-06-28 | $3.36 | $3.18 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-29 | $3.35 | $3.17 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-30 | $3.34 | $3.16 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2026-06-26), reaching $3.35.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-26 and 2026-06-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data presents a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.2 and a resistance at 3.4. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.35%, suggesting short-term trading opportunities within the range of 3.18 to 3.53. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, which may introduce volatility. Traders should be cautious of price fluctuations and monitor for any shifts in demand driven by the prevailing cooling demand.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 2.28 BCFD, reflecting a decline of -0.80. This could impact production planning as lower demand forecasts are indicated by the cooling demand and bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil. Producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the risks associated with fluctuating prices and prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics, particularly in light of recent news indicating easing supply disruptions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the low heating demand forecasted and high cooling demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market may lead to lower prices in the short term, but the current supply balance indicates some risks in supply reliability. It may be prudent for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies to ensure stability in their energy costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently shaped by a bearish overall sentiment, driven by a fundamental balance of 2.28 BCFD and a cooling demand weather outlook. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trend, but the prevailing sentiment and technical indicators indicate potential volatility ahead. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply disruptions and demand forecasts, as these are the strongest driving factors that could lead to shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.