Natural gas tried to break out to $3.342, the weather declined to participate, and now it's back inside its $3.127–$3.247 range doing a convincing impression of a market that fell asleep. Technically that range is the trade: clear $3.247 and you still need $3.342 to open the path to $3.525 fair value; lose $3.127 and you're testing $3.00, because absent a bullish shift in weather or demand, gravity does the rest — and "meh" demand running right alongside historical averages is gravity's best friend. The fundamentals are split, which is exactly why it's range-bound: bearish, storage sits ~5.6% above the five-year average, production is ample near 109–111 Bcf/d, and there's simply no demand pulse forcing the issue; bullish, the week's injection is seen in the low-70s Bcf (constructive versus both the 5-year average and last year), LNG feedgas is running at record levels on the Golden Pass ramp (~17.3 Bcf/d), heat is finally building across the eastern two-thirds through July 9, and underneath it all sits the slow burn — Ras Laffan down 17% of global LNG capacity for years and European storage at just 47% versus a 61% norm. Bullish setup, sleepy reality. The thermometer breaks the tie, and until it does, respect the range.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-26 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are caught in a sleepy range, oscillating between $3.127 and $3.247, as weather fails to ignite demand. Recent bearish fundamentals show storage levels at 5.6% above the five-year average and production hovering around 109–111 Bcf/d. However, a bullish undercurrent exists with record LNG feedgas and increasing heat forecasts. As the market waits for a decisive weather shift, the pivotal levels to watch are $3.342 for a breakout and $3.00 for potential downside, proving that gravity is the true market heavyweight.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.28 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.29
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.22
MA(20): $3.21
Current Price is 3.29, 9 day MA 3.22, 20 day MA 3.21
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.0705
Signal: 0.0703
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.53
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.53 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 165,146
Avg (20d): 152,821
Ratio: 1.08
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 75.42
%D: 75.31
Stochastic %K: 75.42, %D: 75.31. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 24.41
+DI: 26.74
-DI: 13.76
ADX: 24.41 (+DI: 26.74, -DI: 13.76). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -24.58
Williams %R: -24.58 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.34
Middle: 3.21
Lower: 3.07
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.34, Middle: 3.21, Lower: 3.07
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.4 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 108.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.7 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.4 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.4 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.73 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 109.12 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 97.07 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 2.28 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
48.0 CDD
-12.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
83.0 CDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/18 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/19 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/20 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/21 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/22 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/23 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/24 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/27 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/28 | 11.0 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 12.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/30 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 07/01 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/02 | 15.0 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.37
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
0.35 (0.34%)
US_10Y
4.37
Daily:
-0.08 (-1.77%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-2.17%)
SP500
7354.02
Daily:
-3.47 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-118.77 (-1.59%)
VIX
18.41
Daily:
-0.48 (-2.54%)
Weekly:
1.13 (6.54%)
GOLD
4103.0
Daily:
72.5 (1.8%)
Weekly:
-78.9 (-1.89%)
COPPER
6.2
Daily:
0.13 (2.09%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-2.5%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.185 EUR/MWh (-0.017). JKM prices decreased to 15.385 USD/MMBtu (-0.165). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.200 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.185
-0.017Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-26
JKM Prices
15.385
-0.165Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-26
JKM-TTF Spread
0.200
1.32%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-26
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
15.8
14.5
13.1
11.7
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.185 |
| AUG 26 | 13.512 |
| SEP 26 | 13.611 |
| OCT 26 | 13.610 |
| NOV 26 | 13.546 |
| DEC 26 | 13.550 |
| JAN 27 | 13.507 |
| FEB 27 | 13.350 |
| MAR 27 | 12.871 |
| APR 27 | 11.420 |
| MAY 27 | 10.919 |
| JUN 27 | 10.782 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.385 |
| SEP 26 | 14.735 |
| OCT 26 | 14.390 |
| NOV 26 | 14.235 |
| DEC 26 | 14.315 |
| JAN 27 | 14.200 |
| FEB 27 | 13.875 |
| MAR 27 | 13.010 |
| APR 27 | 11.705 |
| MAY 27 | 11.235 |
| JUN 27 | 11.295 |
| JUL 27 | 11.445 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-27 to 2026-06-25
Latest LNG Flow
18.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.34
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | N/A |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.517
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
91
Last Updated:
2026-06-26 23:47:15
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.29
Closest Support:
$3.2
2.74% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.4
3.34% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.7
0.382
$2.83
0.5
$2.94
0.618
$3.05
0.786
$3.2
Support
1.0
$3.4
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.64
1.618
$3.96
2.0
$4.31
2.618
$4.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.34
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-26 23:47:15
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.35%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $3.35 | $3.18 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-27 | $3.36 | $3.19 | $3.54 |
| 2026-06-28 | $3.36 | $3.18 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-29 | $3.35 | $3.17 | $3.53 |
| 2026-06-30 | $3.34 | $3.16 | $3.52 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2026-06-26), reaching $3.35.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-26 and 2026-06-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market analysis suggests a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. Traders should be aware of the Fibonacci support level at 3.2 and a resistance level at 3.4. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.35%, with a projected range of 3.18 to 3.53.
Overall market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.500, indicating potential volatility. Traders should prepare for short-term opportunities near the support level but remain cautious due to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 2.28 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of -0.80. This could influence production planning as lower demand forecasts for natural gas may impact profitability.
The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil (score: -0.700) suggests that producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines. Monitoring regional cooling demand patterns will also be crucial for adjusting supply strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a forecast of high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in natural gas, with a score of -0.800, indicates that prices may remain under pressure, which could impact budgeting for energy costs.
It may be prudent for consumers to review their procurement strategies and consider locking in prices given the current market volatility and the potential for increased demand in cooling.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reflects a convergence of bearish sentiment across multiple commodities, particularly in crude oil and natural gas. The technical indicators show a neutral stance, with support and resistance levels indicating potential price stability in the short term.
Key driving factors include the high cooling demand across all regions, which may sustain natural gas consumption, but the overall bearish sentiment suggests a cautious outlook. Analysts should monitor the implications of the fundamental balance and ML price forecasts for future shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.