Natural gas tried to break out to $3.342, the weather declined to participate, and now it's back inside its $3.127–$3.247 range doing a convincing impression of a market that fell asleep. Technically that range is the trade: clear $3.247 and you still need $3.342 to open the path to $3.525 fair value; lose $3.127 and you're testing $3.00, because absent a bullish shift in weather or demand, gravity does the rest — and "meh" demand running right alongside historical averages is gravity's best friend. The fundamentals are split, which is exactly why it's range-bound: bearish, storage sits ~5.6% above the five-year average, production is ample near 109–111 Bcf/d, and there's simply no demand pulse forcing the issue; bullish, the week's injection is seen in the low-70s Bcf (constructive versus both the 5-year average and last year), LNG feedgas is running at record levels on the Golden Pass ramp (~17.3 Bcf/d), heat is finally building across the eastern two-thirds through July 9, and underneath it all sits the slow burn — Ras Laffan down 17% of global LNG capacity for years and European storage at just 47% versus a 61% norm. Bullish setup, sleepy reality. The thermometer breaks the tie, and until it does, respect the range.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-06-28 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have been stuck in a $3.127–$3.247 range, with recent attempts to break out faltering amid a decline in weather-driven demand. Fundamentals present a mixed picture: while storage is ~5.6% above the five-year average and production remains ample, a low injection rate and robust LNG feedgas levels help offset bearish sentiment. With European gas prices rising and heat expected to build, the market is watching for a decisive weather shift to break the current range. Until then, it's a sleepy market, but one to keep an eye on!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.28 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.31
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.24
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.31, 9 day MA 3.24, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.069
Signal: 0.0693
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 57.83
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 57.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,806
Avg (20d): 141,695
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 68.87
%D: 71.01
Stochastic %K: 68.87, %D: 71.01. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.69
+DI: 27.14
-DI: 12.38
ADX: 25.69 (+DI: 27.14, -DI: 12.38). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -31.13
Williams %R: -31.13 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.34
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.07
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.34, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.07
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.4 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 108.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.7 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.4 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.4 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.73 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 109.12 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 97.07 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 2.28 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
48.0 CDD
-15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
90.0 CDD
+24.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/20 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/21 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/22 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/20 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/21 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| 06/22 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/23 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/24 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/25 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/26 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/27 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 06/28 | 11.0 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 12.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 06/30 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/01 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/02 | 15.0 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/03 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.33
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-0.08%)
US_10Y
4.37
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.46%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.04%)
SP500
7354.02
Daily:
-3.47 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-118.77 (-1.59%)
VIX
18.41
Daily:
-0.48 (-2.54%)
Weekly:
1.13 (6.54%)
GOLD
4082.3
Daily:
3.6 (0.09%)
Weekly:
-47.6 (-1.15%)
COPPER
6.2
Daily:
0.06 (0.95%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.96%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.199 EUR/MWh (+0.014). JKM prices increased to 15.525 USD/MMBtu (+0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.326 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.199
+0.014Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-06-28
JKM Prices
15.525
+0.140Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-06-28
JKM-TTF Spread
0.326
2.14%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-06-28
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.0
14.6
13.1
11.7
10.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.199 |
| AUG 26 | 13.659 |
| SEP 26 | 13.758 |
| OCT 26 | 13.769 |
| NOV 26 | 13.673 |
| DEC 26 | 13.675 |
| JAN 27 | 13.610 |
| FEB 27 | 13.420 |
| MAR 27 | 12.934 |
| APR 27 | 11.427 |
| MAY 27 | 10.890 |
| JUN 27 | 10.767 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 15.525 |
| SEP 26 | 14.960 |
| OCT 26 | 14.510 |
| NOV 26 | 14.330 |
| DEC 26 | 14.400 |
| JAN 27 | 14.205 |
| FEB 27 | 13.840 |
| MAR 27 | 12.995 |
| APR 27 | 11.675 |
| MAY 27 | 11.185 |
| JUN 27 | 11.260 |
| JUL 27 | 11.405 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-05-29 to 2026-06-25
Latest LNG Flow
18.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.32
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
27
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 17.90 | N/A |
| 2026-06-17 | 17.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.133
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
46
Last Updated:
2026-06-28 23:47:09
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.31
Closest Support:
$3.24
2.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.44
3.93% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.71
0.382
$2.85
0.5
$2.96
0.618
$3.08
0.786
$3.24
Support
1.0
$3.44
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.7
1.618
$4.03
2.0
$4.4
2.618
$4.99
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-06-28 23:47:09
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.64%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | $3.25 | $3.07 | $3.44 |
| 2026-06-28 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.41 |
| 2026-06-29 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.42 |
| 2026-06-30 | $3.22 | $3.04 | $3.41 |
| 2026-07-01 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.42 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.64% for the next trading day (2026-06-27), reaching $3.25.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-06-27 and 2026-07-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data presents a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 0/5. This indicates potential price stability in the near term. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.24 and resistance at 3.44, which may guide trading strategies. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.64%, with a trading range between 3.07 and 3.44. However, the overall risk of volatility remains, particularly influenced by weather patterns indicating high cooling demand across all regions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 2.28 BCFD with a notable decrease of -0.80. Producers should consider this when planning production levels, as it indicates a tighter supply. The neutral market sentiment suggests that while there is stability, there is no strong bullish or bearish signal to drive aggressive production increases. Hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in light of the potential for price fluctuations as cooling demand continues to dominate across regions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand (CDD: 17.5), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance reflects a tighter supply situation, which could lead to increased prices. Given the neutral sentiment in the market, it may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with rising costs in the coming days, especially as demand remains high across all regions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market dynamics present a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 2.28 BCFD, indicating a slight tightening in supply. The cooling demand across all regions is a significant driver, suggesting that analysts should monitor this closely for potential shifts in market behavior. The risk of volatility remains due to external factors like weather and geopolitical influences, while the ML price forecast indicates a marginal bullish outlook, which could shift if demand continues to rise.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.