Henry Hub dropped to $3.18 Monday, which sounds more dramatic than the data really warrants — because here is the thing, supply did not materially change from last week. Production is still running in that 109 to 111 Bcf per day range, storage is still sitting about 5.6% above the five-year average, and the injection pace is roughly what it was. The market just decided to lead with the "ample supply" headline and ignore the heatwave building across the eastern two-thirds of the country. Fair enough, technically — because that heat has been tracking right in line with five-year demand averages, which is not the kind of weather that breaks a range. It is the kind of weather that keeps you comfortable inside it. Fair value in our model is $3.525, and there are eyes on considerably higher prices this summer if the LNG pull and a hotter-than-expected July combine. We are bullish on the structural picture. The honest read on the prompt, though, is that demand has to actually surprise to the upside — not just show up on schedule — to push $3.342 out of the way for good. The thermometer has been a 6 out of 10 when the market needs an 8. Until that changes, respect the range.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-07-01 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have dipped to $3.18, despite a heatwave across the eastern U.S. This decline is attributed to stable production rates between 109-111 Bcf/day and storage levels exceeding the five-year average by 5.6%. The market is fixated on "ample supply," even as demand remains steady. Fair value is pegged at $3.525, but for prices to break past $3.342, demand must exceed expectations. Watch for LNG exports and weather impacts—these could shift the narrative from comfortable to scorching!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.28 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.23
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 3.23, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0536
Signal: 0.0633
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.84
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,965
Avg (20d): 147,346
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 41.27
%D: 46.93
Stochastic %K: 41.27, %D: 46.93. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.21
+DI: 23.76
-DI: 12.15
ADX: 26.21 (+DI: 23.76, -DI: 12.15). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -58.73
Williams %R: -58.73 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.34
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.07
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.34, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.07
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.8 | 105.7 | 101.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.4 | 111.7 | 112.3 | 108.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.7 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.4 | 37.1 | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.4 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 9.47 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 12.73 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.8 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 109.12 | 109.62 | 98.5 | 97.07 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 2.28 | 2.08 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 HDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 HDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
58.0 CDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
102.0 CDD
+33.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/24 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/25 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/26 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/27 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/28 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/29 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01 | 15.0 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/02 | 16.0 | 9.0 | +7.0 |
| 07/03 | 16.0 | 10.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/04 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/05 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/06 | 13.0 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/07 | 13.0 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
101.39
Daily:
0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-0.04%)
US_10Y
4.47
Daily:
0.1 (2.36%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.4%)
SP500
7483.23
Daily:
-16.13 (-0.22%)
Weekly:
125.74 (1.71%)
VIX
16.59
Daily:
0.14 (0.85%)
Weekly:
-2.3 (-12.18%)
GOLD
4075.9
Daily:
53.0 (1.32%)
Weekly:
45.4 (1.13%)
COPPER
6.16
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.48%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.52%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 15.227 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 16.050 USD/MMBtu (+0.230). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.823 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.227
+0.000Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-07-01
JKM Prices
16.050
+0.230Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-01
JKM-TTF Spread
0.823
5.40%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-07-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.6
15.1
13.5
12.0
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.227 |
| AUG 26 | 14.557 |
| SEP 26 | 14.649 |
| OCT 26 | 14.634 |
| NOV 26 | 14.531 |
| DEC 26 | 14.526 |
| JAN 27 | 14.451 |
| FEB 27 | 14.249 |
| MAR 27 | 13.690 |
| APR 27 | 11.813 |
| MAY 27 | 11.158 |
| JUN 27 | 10.996 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 16.050 |
| SEP 26 | 16.090 |
| OCT 26 | 15.485 |
| NOV 26 | 15.275 |
| DEC 26 | 15.280 |
| JAN 27 | 15.095 |
| FEB 27 | 14.710 |
| MAR 27 | 13.830 |
| APR 27 | 12.070 |
| MAY 27 | 11.440 |
| JUN 27 | 11.450 |
| JUL 27 | 11.595 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-06-01 to 2026-06-30
Latest LNG Flow
18.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.30
(+1.7%)
30-Day Average
17.38
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
26
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 17.70 | N/A |
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-29 | 18.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 18.40 | +0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
55
Last Updated:
2026-07-01 23:47:27
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Renewed Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$3.08
3.45% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.24
1.57% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.71
0.382
$2.85
0.5
$2.96
0.618
$3.08
Support
0.786
$3.24
Resistance
1.0
$3.44
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.7
1.618
$4.03
2.0
$4.4
2.618
$4.99
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.22
Forecast Generated:
2026-07-01 23:47:27
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.64%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | $3.24 | $3.06 | $3.42 |
| 2026-07-03 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.41 |
| 2026-07-04 | $3.24 | $3.06 | $3.42 |
| 2026-07-05 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.41 |
| 2026-07-06 | $3.23 | $3.05 | $3.42 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.64% for the next trading day (2026-07-02), reaching $3.24.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-02 and 2026-07-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.08 and a resistance level at 3.24. The ML price forecast suggests a potential upward movement of 0.64%, within a range of 3.06 to 3.42. Traders should watch for volatility around these levels, particularly as the cooling demand is expected to dominate across regions, which could influence short-term price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at 2.28 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of 0.80. This may signal a need for producers to evaluate their production planning closely. The market sentiment is favorable, with a sentiment score of +0.350. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations, especially with ongoing concerns about supply disruptions in the crude oil market.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a dominant cooling demand expected, particularly in the South and West regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in their energy procurement. The current fundamental balance indicates a slight decrease, which may impact supply reliability. Utilities should consider procurement strategies that account for possible price increases, especially given the positive market sentiment.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently shaped by a bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.350. The technical indicators suggest a neutral stance, while the Fibonacci levels indicate key price thresholds (3.08 and 3.24). The strong cooling demand across all regions could drive short-term price increases, making it crucial to monitor these factors for potential shifts in the market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.