Natural Gas is fading as the expectation for this week's storage report is over 80 BCF injection (well over the 5 year average - 14-20 BCF over). Weather forecasts to the middle of July support in most part an "average" supply-demand balance. Overall the supply-demand balance is not overly bearish and not overly bullish - it's "meh". As winter closed out and we moved into summer - Hedge Funds (managed money) has gotten shorter on Nat Gas - this is helping support a lid on any bullish movement. Nat Gas is undervalued and "should" go up to 3.525....but break below 3.247 this week opens the door for a retest of $3. Key levels: 3.00, 3.127, 3.247, 3.342, 3.449. At the time of writing (before storage) we are trading 3.17.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-07-02 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently in a state of "meh," with expectations of over 80 BCF injections this week, significantly above the 5-year average. As hedge funds have taken shorter positions, prices are capped, trading around $3.17. While technically undervalued, a price rise to $3.525 seems plausible, though breaching $3.247 could signal a downturn. Key levels to watch are 3.00, 3.127, and 3.342. Overall, the supply-demand balance is stable but uninspiring, leading to cautious sentiment in the market.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 3.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.21
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.23
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.21, 9 day MA 3.23, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0511
Signal: 0.0613
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.69
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.69 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,211
Avg (20d): 146,703
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 45.52
%D: 51.42
Stochastic %K: 45.52, %D: 51.42. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.65
+DI: 23.62
-DI: 12.08
ADX: 26.65 (+DI: 23.62, -DI: 12.08). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -54.48
Williams %R: -54.48 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.34
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.07
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.34, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.07
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.3 | 106.0 | 102.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.4 | 112.5 | 108.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 21.37 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.8 | 36.4 | 44.7 | 43.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.5 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 9.63 |
| LNG Exports | 18.1 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 12.87 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.07 |
| Total Demand | 114.72 | 109.12 | 104.5 | 100.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -3.52 | 2.28 | 8.0 | 7.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
63.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
99.0 CDD
+28.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/24 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/25 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/26 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/27 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/28 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/29 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/30 | 12.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02 | 15.0 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/03 | 16.0 | 10.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/04 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/05 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/06 | 13.0 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/07 | 13.0 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/08 | 13.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.81
Daily:
-0.58 (-0.58%)
Weekly:
-0.55 (-0.55%)
US_10Y
4.48
Daily:
0.11 (2.58%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.18%)
SP500
7483.24
Daily:
0.01 (0.0%)
Weekly:
129.22 (1.76%)
VIX
16.15
Daily:
-0.44 (-2.65%)
Weekly:
-2.26 (-12.28%)
GOLD
4195.2
Daily:
126.9 (3.12%)
Weekly:
116.5 (2.86%)
COPPER
6.25
Daily:
0.13 (2.11%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.81%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 15.227 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 16.025 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.798 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.227
+0.000Front month: JUL 26
As of 2026-07-02
JKM Prices
16.025
-0.025Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-02
JKM-TTF Spread
0.798
5.24%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-07-02
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.5
15.0
13.5
11.9
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 26 | 15.227 |
| AUG 26 | 14.297 |
| SEP 26 | 14.381 |
| OCT 26 | 14.383 |
| NOV 26 | 14.275 |
| DEC 26 | 14.271 |
| JAN 27 | 14.204 |
| FEB 27 | 14.003 |
| MAR 27 | 13.473 |
| APR 27 | 11.696 |
| MAY 27 | 11.075 |
| JUN 27 | 10.921 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 16.025 |
| SEP 26 | 15.880 |
| OCT 26 | 15.280 |
| NOV 26 | 15.065 |
| DEC 26 | 15.125 |
| JAN 27 | 14.905 |
| FEB 27 | 14.525 |
| MAR 27 | 13.595 |
| APR 27 | 11.995 |
| MAY 27 | 11.385 |
| JUN 27 | 11.405 |
| JUL 27 | 11.515 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-06-02 to 2026-07-01
Latest LNG Flow
18.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.30
(-1.6%)
30-Day Average
17.43
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.20
BCF/D
Data Points
26
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 17.80 | N/A |
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | -0.20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-29 | 18.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 18.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-07-01 | 18.10 | -0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
76
Last Updated:
2026-07-02 23:47:28
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil prices fall 1% to 4-month lows as progress in US-Iran talks cools supply concerns Reuters
- Crude Prices Fall as Global Oil Supply Risks Ease Barchart
- Crude Prices Slip as Global Oil Supply Risks Recede Barchart
- Stronger US Production Knocks Nat-Gas Prices Lower Barchart
- US natgas prices fall as ample supply outweighs hotter weather forecasts Reuters
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.21
Closest Support:
$3.08
4.05% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.24
0.93% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.71
0.382
$2.85
0.5
$2.96
0.618
$3.08
Support
0.786
$3.24
Resistance
1.0
$3.44
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.7
1.618
$4.03
2.0
$4.4
2.618
$4.99
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.2
Forecast Generated:
2026-07-02 23:47:28
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.31%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.36 |
| 2026-07-04 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.37 |
| 2026-07-05 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.36 |
| 2026-07-06 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
| 2026-07-07 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2026-07-03), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.08 and resistance is at 3.24. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.300.
The ML price forecast for the next day indicates a potential decrease of 0.31%, suggesting a price range between 3.01 and 3.36. This could present short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on downward movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -3.52 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The bearish sentiment in the market may impact pricing strategies and could necessitate adjustments in production planning.
With cooling demand dominating the weather outlook, particularly in the South and West, producers may need to assess regional supply dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly to maintain market competitiveness.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of the bearish market sentiment and the potential for cost fluctuations in the near term. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may stabilize supply but could also lead to price volatility.
Given the current market dynamics, consumers are encouraged to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate potential risks associated with price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market currently displays a convergence of bearish factors, including a negative fundamental balance and a bearish overall market sentiment. The technical indicators suggest limited upward momentum, with Fibonacci levels indicating potential resistance at 3.24.
Analysts should monitor the evolving weather patterns and their impact on demand, as well as the implications of geopolitical developments on supply dynamics. These factors will be crucial in assessing potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.