Natural Gas is fading as the expectation for this week's storage report is over 80 BCF injection (well over the 5 year average - 14-20 BCF over). Weather forecasts to the middle of July support in most part an "average" supply-demand balance. Overall the supply-demand balance is not overly bearish and not overly bullish - it's "meh". As winter closed out and we moved into summer - Hedge Funds (managed money) has gotten shorter on Nat Gas - this is helping support a lid on any bullish movement. Nat Gas is undervalued and "should" go up to 3.525....but break below 3.247 this week opens the door for a retest of $3. Key levels: 3.00, 3.127, 3.247, 3.342, 3.449. At the time of writing (before storage) we are trading 3.17.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-07-03 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently under pressure as expectations of over 80 BCF in storage injections loom, exceeding the 5-year average. The market sentiment is somewhat "meh," with hedge funds shorting positions, which caps bullish potential. Trading at $3.17, natural gas could rally to $3.525 if it breaks above key resistance levels, but a dip below $3.247 could prompt a retest of $3. Despite decent supply-demand balance, the bearish sentiment prevails—watch for storage reports and weather impacts ahead!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 3.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.23
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.24, 9 day MA 3.23, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0488
Signal: 0.0586
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.36
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 29,186
Avg (20d): 144,511
Ratio: 0.2
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 53.77
%D: 47.96
Stochastic %K: 53.77, %D: 47.96. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.33
+DI: 24.87
-DI: 13.45
ADX: 26.33 (+DI: 24.87, -DI: 13.45). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -46.23
Williams %R: -46.23 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.32
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.08
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.32, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.08
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.3 | 106.0 | 102.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.4 | 112.5 | 108.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 21.37 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.8 | 36.4 | 44.7 | 43.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.5 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 9.63 |
| LNG Exports | 18.1 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 12.87 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.07 |
| Total Demand | 114.72 | 109.12 | 104.5 | 100.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -3.52 | 2.28 | 8.0 | 7.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
69.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
95.0 CDD
+22.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/26 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/27 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/28 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/29 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/30 | 12.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/01 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03 | 16.0 | 10.0 | +6.0 |
| 07/04 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/05 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/06 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/07 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/08 | 13.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/09 | 13.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.86
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.25 (-0.25%)
US_10Y
4.37
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.46%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.04%)
SP500
7483.24
Daily:
0.01 (0.0%)
Weekly:
129.22 (1.76%)
VIX
15.81
Daily:
-0.34 (-2.11%)
Weekly:
-1.84 (-10.42%)
GOLD
4187.3
Daily:
74.6 (1.81%)
Weekly:
165.0 (4.1%)
COPPER
6.22
Daily:
0.11 (1.79%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.07%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 14.741 EUR/MWh (+0.444). JKM prices increased to 16.080 USD/MMBtu (+0.055). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.339 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
14.741
+0.444Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-03
JKM Prices
16.080
+0.055Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-03
JKM-TTF Spread
1.339
9.08%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-07-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.8
15.2
13.6
12.0
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 14.741 |
| SEP 26 | 14.866 |
| OCT 26 | 14.843 |
| NOV 26 | 14.684 |
| DEC 26 | 14.659 |
| JAN 27 | 14.572 |
| FEB 27 | 14.319 |
| MAR 27 | 13.727 |
| APR 27 | 11.848 |
| MAY 27 | 11.193 |
| JUN 27 | 11.021 |
| JUL 27 | 10.989 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 16.080 |
| SEP 26 | 16.285 |
| OCT 26 | 15.705 |
| NOV 26 | 15.415 |
| DEC 26 | 15.490 |
| JAN 27 | 15.255 |
| FEB 27 | 14.830 |
| MAR 27 | 13.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.155 |
| MAY 27 | 11.515 |
| JUN 27 | 11.520 |
| JUL 27 | 11.640 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-06-03 to 2026-07-02
Latest LNG Flow
18.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.1%)
30-Day Average
17.52
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.30
BCF/D
Data Points
26
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | 17.60 | N/A |
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-29 | 18.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 18.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-07-01 | 18.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-07-02 | 18.30 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
65
Last Updated:
2026-07-03 23:47:10
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
- Asia Seems to Have Weathered Energy Price Shock Well — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.24
Closest Support:
$3.24
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.44
6.17% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.71
0.382
$2.85
0.5
$2.96
0.618
$3.08
0.786
$3.24
Current Price
1.0
$3.44
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.7
1.618
$4.03
2.0
$4.4
2.618
$4.99
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.2
Forecast Generated:
2026-07-03 23:47:10
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.31%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.36 |
| 2026-07-04 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.37 |
| 2026-07-05 | $3.19 | $3.01 | $3.36 |
| 2026-07-06 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
| 2026-07-07 | $3.19 | $3.02 | $3.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2026-07-03), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of 1/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.24 and resistance at 3.44. With the ML price forecast indicating a potential downward trend of 0.31%, traders should be cautious of short-term volatility. The prevailing cooling demand across regions may create short-term opportunities in the market.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -3.52 BCFD, indicating potential challenges in meeting demand. Coupled with a bearish market sentiment, with a score of -0.350, producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies and production planning to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and demand. The easing of geopolitical risks may provide some relief, but caution is advised.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market, combined with a fundamental balance deficit, suggests that supply reliability might be at risk. Consumers should consider hedging options to protect against price spikes in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment across multiple sectors, particularly in crude oil, which is reflected in the fundamental balance and the ML forecasts. The strong cooling demand across all regions may serve as a counterbalance to some bearish pressures, but overall, the market is showing signs of weakness. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on supply dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.