Natural Gas is fading as the expectation for this week's storage report is over 80 BCF injection (well over the 5 year average - 14-20 BCF over). Weather forecasts to the middle of July support in most part an "average" supply-demand balance. Overall the supply-demand balance is not overly bearish and not overly bullish - it's "meh". As winter closed out and we moved into summer - Hedge Funds (managed money) has gotten shorter on Nat Gas - this is helping support a lid on any bullish movement. Nat Gas is undervalued and "should" go up to 3.525....but break below 3.247 this week opens the door for a retest of $3. Key levels: 3.00, 3.127, 3.247, 3.342, 3.449. At the time of writing (before storage) we are trading 3.17.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-07-04 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas is currently in a "meh" phase, with expectations of over 80 BCF injection in this week's storage report, significantly above the five-year average. Hedge funds have taken a shorter position, capping any bullish movements despite a belief that prices could rise to 3.525. However, a drop below 3.247 could trigger a retest of $3. Weather forecasts indicate an average supply-demand balance, suggesting neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum for the foreseeable future. Stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 3.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.23
MA(20): $3.2
Current Price is 3.24, 9 day MA 3.23, 20 day MA 3.2
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0488
Signal: 0.0586
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.36
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 29,186
Avg (20d): 145,245
Ratio: 0.2
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 53.77
%D: 47.96
Stochastic %K: 53.77, %D: 47.96. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 26.33
+DI: 24.87
-DI: 13.45
ADX: 26.33 (+DI: 24.87, -DI: 13.45). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -46.23
Williams %R: -46.23 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.32
Middle: 3.2
Lower: 3.08
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.32, Middle: 3.2, Lower: 3.08
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.3 | 106.0 | 102.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 111.2 | 111.4 | 112.5 | 108.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 21.37 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.8 | 36.4 | 44.7 | 43.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 16.5 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 9.63 |
| LNG Exports | 18.1 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 12.87 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.07 |
| Total Demand | 114.72 | 109.12 | 104.5 | 100.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -3.52 | 2.28 | 8.0 | 7.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
LOW heating demand - mild conditions
(Cooling-dominated conditions increasing power generation demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
76.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
92.0 CDD
+18.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/29 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 06/30 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 07/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/26 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/27 | 8.0 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| 06/28 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 06/29 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 06/30 | 12.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/01 | 13.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 07/02 | 14.0 | 9.0 | +5.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 07/05 | 13.0 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/06 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/07 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 07/08 | 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 07/09 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 07/10 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,059
Change: -31,487
Managed Money
-82,722
Change: +2,187
-5.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-30,615
Change: -2,026
-1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
192,382
Change: +1,039
11.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-93,967
Change: -5,400
-5.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-06-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,911,877
Change: -95,832
Managed Money
82,872
Change: -13,356
4.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
378,876
Change: +160
19.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-531,482
Change: +12,573
-27.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 14.741 EUR/MWh (+0.444). JKM prices increased to 16.080 USD/MMBtu (+0.055). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.339 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
14.741
+0.444Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-04
JKM Prices
16.080
+0.055Front month: AUG 26
As of 2026-07-04
JKM-TTF Spread
1.339
9.08%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-07-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.8
15.2
13.6
12.0
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 14.741 |
| SEP 26 | 14.866 |
| OCT 26 | 14.843 |
| NOV 26 | 14.684 |
| DEC 26 | 14.659 |
| JAN 27 | 14.572 |
| FEB 27 | 14.319 |
| MAR 27 | 13.727 |
| APR 27 | 11.848 |
| MAY 27 | 11.193 |
| JUN 27 | 11.021 |
| JUL 27 | 10.989 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 26 | 16.080 |
| SEP 26 | 16.285 |
| OCT 26 | 15.705 |
| NOV 26 | 15.415 |
| DEC 26 | 15.490 |
| JAN 27 | 15.255 |
| FEB 27 | 14.830 |
| MAR 27 | 13.825 |
| APR 27 | 12.155 |
| MAY 27 | 11.515 |
| JUN 27 | 11.520 |
| JUL 27 | 11.640 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-06-04 to 2026-07-03
Latest LNG Flow
18.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.5%)
30-Day Average
17.58
BCF/D
30-Day High
18.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
16.30
BCF/D
Data Points
26
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | 17.80 | N/A |
| 2026-06-22 | 18.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18.10 | +0.20 |
| 2026-06-29 | 18.10 | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 18.40 | +0.30 |
| 2026-07-01 | 18.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-07-02 | 18.30 | +0.20 |
| 2026-07-03 | 18.20 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
48
Last Updated:
2026-07-04 23:47:14
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
- Asia Seems to Have Weathered Energy Price Shock Well — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.24
Closest Support:
$3.24
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.44
6.17% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.71
0.382
$2.85
0.5
$2.96
0.618
$3.08
0.786
$3.24
Current Price
1.0
$3.44
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.7
1.618
$4.03
2.0
$4.4
2.618
$4.99
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.24
Forecast Generated:
2026-07-04 23:47:14
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.05%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | $3.24 | $3.07 | $3.42 |
| 2026-07-05 | $3.25 | $3.07 | $3.43 |
| 2026-07-06 | $3.25 | $3.07 | $3.42 |
| 2026-07-07 | $3.25 | $3.07 | $3.42 |
| 2026-07-08 | $3.25 | $3.07 | $3.42 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2026-07-04), reaching $3.24.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-07-04 and 2026-07-08.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.24, while the resistance level stands at 3.44. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.300, indicating potential downward pressure on prices.
The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.05%, with a range of 3.07 to 3.42. This presents short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations within this range, but the prevailing bearish sentiment should be closely monitored for any shifts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of -3.52 BCFD and a significant change of -5.80, producers may need to reassess their production planning to align with the current market dynamics. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly in crude oil with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution in production levels and potential hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with falling prices.
Additionally, the weather outlook indicates moderate cooling demand, particularly in the West with a CDD of 28.5, which may impact demand forecasts and operational strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current bearish market sentiment and the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline. The overall cooling demand is expected to be low for heating but moderate for power generation, which could affect procurement strategies.
As the fundamental balance is negative, reliability risks in supply may also arise, necessitating careful consideration of hedging or long-term contracts to secure favorable pricing amidst market volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook driven by a negative sentiment score of -0.300 and a fundamental balance of -3.52 BCFD. The convergence of these factors indicates that the market may face downward pressure, particularly in crude oil.
Weather forecasts show a strong cooling demand, particularly in the West, which could provide some support to natural gas prices. Analysts should monitor these trends closely as they may signal shifts in market dynamics and potential opportunities for strategic adjustments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.