Natural Gas Radar

2025-08-29 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/29/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is either going to burst up through $3 and jump to 3.449 (with a pause at 3.247 and 3.127) or fail to break the strong resistance at $3 and head down to fill the 2.762 gap and 2.449 gap. That is what the technicals are pointing to….now the fundamentals are showing a bullish story - the supply/demand balance is pretty tight for this time of year - LNG is likely to increase and Power has been building on AI/Data Center demand. The fundamentals support a 3.25 to 3.75 range for the next 60 days….while the technicals look a bit weaker.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-29 23:46:46 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas is at a critical juncture, flirting with the $3 resistance level. If it breaks through, it could surge to $3.449, but failure may lead to a drop towards $2.762. Fundamentals are bullish, supported by tight supply and increasing LNG demand, with a projected range of $3.25 to $3.75 in the next 60 days. Recent reports highlight shrinking inventories and a less-than-expected inventory build, reinforcing upward pressure. Watch for resistance breaks or inventory repo...

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.02
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.81

MA(20): $2.88

Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 2.81, 20 day MA 2.88

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0832

Signal: -0.1176

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 53.09

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 53.09 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 134,594

Avg (20d): 142,113

Ratio: 0.95

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 98.25

%D: 78.02

Stochastic %K: 98.25, %D: 78.02. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.3

+DI: 25.35

-DI: 21.66

ADX: 23.3 (+DI: 25.35, -DI: 21.66). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -1.75

Williams %R: -1.75 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.11

Middle: 2.88

Lower: 2.65

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.11, Middle: 2.88, Lower: 2.65

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.4 106.7 101.3 100.1
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.2 5.1 6.4 5.63
Total Supply 112.6 111.9 107.8 105.8
Industrial Demand 21.7 22.1 21.5 21.4
Electric Power Demand 45.7 41.0 43.7 42.37
Residential & Commercial 8.9 9.2 7.9 8.3
LNG Exports 15.5 16.3 12.6 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.23
Pipeline Fuel 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.77
Total Demand 106.1 102.5 99.2 96.97
Supply/Demand Balance 6.5 9.4 8.6 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.2, CDD: 7.3)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 0.5)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 26.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 22.0
Total CDD: 21.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 48.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 122.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 26.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 234.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 47.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.86
Daily: 0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly: -0.57 (-0.58%)

US_10Y

4.23
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26
Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)
Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

15.36
Daily: 0.93 (6.44%)
Weekly: 0.57 (3.85%)

GOLD

3516.1
Daily: 84.3 (2.46%)
Weekly: 142.3 (4.22%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.12 (2.72%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.65%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,619,404
Change: +15,634

Managed Money

-44,032
Change: -7,345
-2.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-16,774
Change: +997
-1.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

104,599
Change: -634
6.5% of OI

Other Reportables

-59,914
Change: +8,487
-3.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.206 EUR/MWh (-0.013). JKM prices decreased to 11.205 USD/MMBtu (-0.105). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.001 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.206

-0.013

Front month: SEP 25

As of 2025-08-29

JKM Prices

11.205

-0.105

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-08-29

JKM-TTF Spread

-0.001

-0.01%

JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

As of 2025-08-29

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.4
11.21
11.21
SEP 25
10.86
11.14
OCT 25
11.14
11.48
NOV 25
11.31
11.66
DEC 25
11.38
11.61
JAN 26
11.38
11.24
FEB 26
11.22
10.78
MAR 26
10.71
10.69
APR 26
10.56
10.79
MAY 26
10.53
10.87
JUN 26
10.55
10.96
JUL 26
10.60
11.04
AUG 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
SEP 25 11.206
OCT 25 10.863
NOV 25 11.144
DEC 25 11.309
JAN 26 11.375
FEB 26 11.376
MAR 26 11.218
APR 26 10.708
MAY 26 10.562
JUN 26 10.526
JUL 26 10.551
AUG 26 10.597
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.205
NOV 25 11.140
DEC 25 11.480
JAN 26 11.660
FEB 26 11.610
MAR 26 11.240
APR 26 10.780
MAY 26 10.685
JUN 26 10.785
JUL 26 10.865
AUG 26 10.960
SEP 26 11.035

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 90
Last Updated: 2025-08-29 23:47:41

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (14 articles)

Demand (7 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.02
Closest Support: $2.98 1.32% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 5.96% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-29 23:47:42
Next Trading Day: UP 0.26%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-29 $2.95 $2.77 $3.14
2025-08-30 $2.96 $2.78 $3.14
2025-08-31 $2.96 $2.78 $3.15
2025-09-01 $2.95 $2.77 $3.14
2025-09-02 $2.95 $2.76 $3.13

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2025-08-29), reaching $2.95.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-29 and 2025-09-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Market sentiment currently appears moderately bearish with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 2.98, while resistance is noted at 3.2. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations within the predicted range of 2.77 to 3.14 as indicated by the ML price forecast suggesting a slight increase of 0.26%. The convergence of bearish technical indicators and a neutral market sentiment implies a potential for volatility, making it essential to monitor these levels closely for short-term trading opportunities or risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance showing an increase to 6.50 BCFD, producers may need to evaluate their production planning to align with the rising demand. The negative sentiment around supply and geopolitical concerns could impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging against potential downturns while capitalizing on the strong demand sentiment for natural gas. It's crucial to assess the impact of weather patterns, especially the cooling demand forecasted, which may influence production levels and operational efficiency.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term, given the mixed signals from the market. With low heating demand expected, as indicated by the weather outlook, procurement strategies might need to adjust accordingly. The fundamental balance suggests a stable supply, but the bearish sentiment in crude oil may lead to indirect price impacts. Monitoring natural gas prices, which are expected to rise slightly, will be essential for budgeting and operational planning.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape reveals a bearish sentiment in technical analysis, alongside a positive fundamental balance. The divergence between the ML price forecast indicating a slight upward movement and the overall neutral market sentiment suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing prices. Analysts should focus on the impacts of weather patterns on demand and supply, particularly in the context of regional variations, to provide nuanced insights into potential market shifts moving forward.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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